Indiana football vs. Maryland: Scouting report, prediction
BLOOMINGTON — Is Indiana football’s season on the brink? Or is it too early to hit the panic button?
The Hoosiers aren’t the only team that’s struggled against inferior opponents this season.
As Indiana coach Tom Allen noted earlier this week, teams out of the Mid-American Conference had made beating teams out of the Big Ten a tradition going back 16 years. He also noted that Power Five teams have lost to Group of Five teams 187 times over the last 20 years.
More: Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell takes 'responsibility' for early season struggles
The problem was Indiana’s general malaise throughout the game. They never found another gear even as Akron was driving to win the game at the end of regulation.
How will the Hoosiers respond Saturday at Maryland (3:30 p.m. kickoff)? Will this moment be a wakeup call or is this just the start of a prolonged slump?
IU vs. Maryland: Tale of the tape
This rivalry has been a good one during Tom Allen’s tenure.
Allen has a slight 4-3 edge in the series — he’s 2-2 against Maryland coach Mike Locksley — and those have all been one-possession games except for Maryland’s win in 2020. The Hoosiers went on to reach a bowl game after beating the Terrapins (2016, 2019 and 2020).
The stakes are pretty high for both teams this weekend.
Maryland is looking to go 5-0 for the first time since 2001 and win its seventh straight game going back to last year (the program’s longest win streak since 2003-04) while Indiana is trying to avoid falling below .500.
IU scoring touchdowns at an alarming rate
Not in a good way.
Indiana scored five touchdowns against FBS opponents, only eight teams in the country have fewer than that. That number is actually worse than it seems since one of those scores was a defensive touchdown and another came in overtime.
So that’s three offensive touchdowns in regulation over 12 quarters against FBS defenses. The Hoosiers have yet to score in the first or fourth quarter in those games either.
Yikes.
Indiana coaches spoke with a sense of urgency about the problem earlier this week, but it’s not entirely clear how they will go about fixing the problem.
The Taulia Tagovailoa of it all
Maryland’s starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has some familiarity with Tom Allen’s defensive scheme.
One of his first career starts came against Indiana back in 2020 in a 27-11 loss. He completed less than 50% of his passes — he’s only done that one other time in the three years since — and threw three interceptions.
More: Indiana football: High snap counts on defense not a winning strategy
Tagovailoa’s numbers in his next two starts against the Hoosiers were a lot better. He combined for 689 passing yards (64.6%), four touchdowns and didn’t have any turnovers.
He’s been sharp through Maryland’s first four games. He had four touchdowns in a win against Michigan State and Towson, recorded his 12th 300-yard passing game in a win over Virginia and continues to rewrite the Terrapins record book on a weekly basis.
Tagovailoa is currently leading the conference in passing yards (1,112), passing TDs (8), total offense (1,165) and points responsible for (62).
One of Allen’s concerns is trying to contain Tagovailoa in the pocket.
Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer and Akron’s D.J. Irons did a lot of damage scrambling for long gains.
Tagovailoa isn’t likely to run much given he’s only scrambled for runs on 49 of his 1,196 career dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. The bigger issue would be him alluding pressure to make plays in the pass game.
He’s avoiding pressure better than he has in his entire career. Opposing defenses have 41 quarterback pressures, but only sacked Tagovailoa twice (4.9%). He’s been sacked on an average of 20% of the times he’s faced pressure in previous seasons.
“It's going to be a huge emphasis this week,” Allen said. “We're playing the third one (quarterback) that's going to be very, very elusive. He hasn't been sacked very many times because he's hard to get on the ground. We've played him the last couple years and know full well.”
More: Is play calling to blame for Indiana football’s offensive woes? Here’s what Tom Allen said
Prediction: Maryland 35, Indiana 17
Indiana is going to have to prove it can move the ball and score against Big Ten competition and get past the 20-point ceiling that’s been in place for much of offensive coordinator Walt Bell’s tenure. The Hoosiers will be in serious trouble if those three and outs start stacking up. Maryland has the best offense they’ve faced this season and could quickly make things ugly. If this turns into a blowout that would be an ominous sign for IU’s bowl chances.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on Twitter @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Previewing Indiana football's Week 5 matchup against Maryland
