Here's what Providence basketball must do if it hopes to make the NCAA Tournament

NEW YORK – The simplest way to decide this, of course, is to win all your games.

Want to ensure qualification for March Madness? Can’t recall seeing an undefeated team excluded from the field. Victory every night would include punching an automatic ticket through a conference tournament, so there would be nothing left to chance.

That’s not terribly realistic, of course. Houston, Connecticut and Purdue – three virtual locks for No. 1 seeds in this year’s upcoming NCAA Tournament brackets – have suffered three losses apiece. Their bodies of work beyond matching 28-3 records have determined their places atop the pyramid, a range of factors from the strength of their wins to their efficiency in dismissing the competition.

More: Here's what you need to know about RI's men's basketball teams as the playoffs arrive

How will Providence's season be judged

Providence College is left to navigate some complicated math as it enters the Big East Tournament this week. The Friars arrive on shaky ground at Madison Square Garden when it comes to their postseason hopes. League rivals Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova would seem to be sweating for similar reasons.

“I’m excited to see what the selection committee values,” Providence coach Kim English said late Saturday night. “I think there are some flaws in the system right now.”

English was at the podium following a 74-60 loss to the Huskies. An upset at Amica Mutual Pavilion would have offered Providence a major jolt with respect to its current NCAA Tournament resumé. UConn shrugged off a slow start and dominated the majority of the final 36 minutes, displaying the class worthy of a defending national champion.

“We knew we were playing a team that deserves to be in the NCAA Tournament on Senior Day,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “We had to play really, really well to get out of here with a win, and we were able to do it.”

Bracket Matrix doesn’t share that opinion. The collaborative website featuring submissions from throughout the nation had the Friars as the sixth team outside the field of 68 as of Tuesday afternoon. New Mexico, the Wildcats, Texas A&M, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh were all listed ahead of them. Providence was named on just three of the 114 submissions used to make an evaluation.

What is Providence's path to March Madness?

The Friars would take any remaining drama out of this by raising a Big East trophy Saturday night. That starts with beating Georgetown in a 6:30 p.m. tip on Wednesday and taking out Creighton in a 7 p.m. tip on Thursday. Dumping the Bluejays out of the tournament would officially make things interesting – it just might turn enough heads to put Providence in the First Four next week at UD Arena in Dayton.

The Friars have two major selling points in their favor – five Quadrant 1 wins as determined by the NCAA’s NET rankings and no bad losses. Providence’s victories over Wisconsin, Marquette, Seton Hall, Creighton and at Xavier proved it could beat some of the best competition on its schedule. The Friars are also 12-0 against teams in Quadrants 3 and 4 and there are no glaring stumbles to hold against them.

“We’ll see,” English said. “If the committee values five Quad 1 wins, then great. We’ll see. If they value a high NET, we’ll see.”

As English alluded to, Providence’s metrics – NET ranking and KenPom.com standing based on efficiency – are less attractive. The Friars were just 63rd in the NET and 62nd per KenPom as of Tuesday afternoon. Those are both below some other teams that have their own arguments to make with respect to reaching the field.

Providence’s offense has been a drag on both of those numbers. Its KenPom ranking is discouraging — just 132nd nationally, a showing caused by pedestrian performances in turnover percentage (238th), offensive-rebound percentage (257th), 3-point shooting (214th) and free-throw rate (204th). And this was an issue even before Bryce Hopkins saw his season cut short by a left knee injury. His long-term recovery from major surgery only further exposed the Friars at that end of the floor.

“I think the NET is overvaluing offensive efficiency,” English said. “You can get your offense really, really good if you play really, really bad teams. That gets you really high in the NET.

“There are some teams in the 20s and 30s with one Quad 1 win, so we’ll see.”

The Friars head for Manhattan averaging an adjusted 109.1 points per 100 possessions. They’ve played 11 games against teams rated 191st or lower, according to KenPom, and have fallen below that number three times – home wins over Columbia and Brown and a road victory over Georgetown. Providence also narrowly exceeded the mark against Milwaukee (111.0), Lehigh (113.0) and Sacred Heart (110.5). Being more convincing in any of those games could have paid dividends now.

What are the comparable teams?

Auburn (one), Alabama (three), Gonzaga (three) and San Diego State (three) are all top-20 NET teams with fewer Quadrant 1 wins than the Friars. But that foursome has been virtually unbeatable otherwise — a combined 79-2, which gives them some latitude. Providence is just 2-4 against Quadrant 2 opponents, including home defeats against Seton Hall and Villanova.

Colorado, New Mexico and Indiana State also make for interesting comparisons. The Buffaloes, Lobos and Sycamores are 27th, 28th and 29th in the NET, respectively, despite a combined 5-16 record against Quadrant 1 opponents. Those three teams are 67-8 otherwise, and none has a statistical weakness as glaring – Indiana State’s defense at 97th is the most extreme, and the Sycamores balance that with an offense that sits 23rd.

See? Just going 31-0 to this point would have been a lot easier than digesting all that. The Friars wouldn’t be subject to multivariate calculus come Selection Sunday if some factors were more in their favor. Winning games is primary among them, and there’s still time to do more of it.

bkoch@providencejournal.com

On X: @BillKoch25

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Can Providence basketball make the NCAA tournament? Yes. Here's how