Gene Frenette: Gators have luxury of No. 1-ranked Georgia dealing with all the pressure

A lot of Florida fans have engaged in week-to-week referendums on the Billy Napier regime, especially after the Utah and Kentucky losses, as if his job security is somehow a legitimate talking point in Year 2.

News flash: Barring some unforeseen scandal, Napier will not be going anywhere this year, next year and probably not in 2025.

Napier remains in the early stages of a substantial rebuilding job, so he’s still playing with a bit of house money. Combine that with the Gators’ biggest rival being a potential dynasty-in-the-making, it means all the pressure to win Saturday’s Florida-Georgia game at EverBank Stadium lies entirely with Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs.

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Florida players and coaches have no reason to be the least bit tight or overwhelmed about facing the two-time defending national champion. Nobody expects the Gators to knock off their first No. 1-ranked opponent outside of Gainesville since beating Alabama in the 1993 SEC Championship game.

Being a 14.5-point underdog to Georgia — nine less points than it was going into last year’s game that the Bulldogs won 42-20 — Florida should feel emboldened to play loose and free because it absolutely has nothing to lose.

Few realistically expect the Gators to keep this game close with a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Billy Napier’s program simply hasn’t accumulated enough talent yet to be considered anywhere near Georgia’s level, so losing by less than two touchdowns would almost be considered a sign of progress.

That said, let’s remember this is college football and totally unforeseen outcomes happen, especially in conference games.

Duke, a 12-point underdog, provided the first clue to how vulnerable Clemson was this year by putting a 28-7 knot on the Tigers’ head. Nobody will ever forget the embarrassment for Miami, a 19-point favorite, and head coach Mario Cristobal failing to take a knee that would have closed out Georgia Tech, which miraculously won 23-20 in the final seconds.

And just last week, Virginia, a 23.5-point ‘dog who had never beaten a top-10 opponent on the road, overcame a 10-point second-half deficit to win 31-27 at previously unbeaten North Carolina.

So let’s not pretend Florida is David and Georgia is an unconquerable Goliath, especially with the Bulldogs' elite tight end Brock Bowers sidelined by surgery for a high ankle sprain.

While there remains a significant gap between the Gators and a Smart program riding a 24-game winning streak, weird things can and do happen in rivalry games.

Recent history aside, where Georgia has won five of the past six meetings by an average margin of 22 points, this isn’t quite a mortal lock for the Bulldogs.

Florida needs Mertz to be near perfect

This is the third consecutive year Georgia enters the game with a No. 1 ranking, and the seventh time overall either team has owned the top spot coming to Jacksonville.

Only once — when Georgia backs Keith Henderson and Tim Worley each ran for over 100 yards in a 24-3 upset in 1985 — has a top-ranked team faltered in this matchup dating back to the early 20th century.

Can it happen this year? I give Florida a puncher’s chance, but only on the condition that quarterback Graham Mertz produces something close to the flawless outing he had in a 41-39 shootout win at South Carolina (423 passing yards, 3 TDs).

The Gators’ running back duo of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson will also have to move the chains.

“I think what we’ve learned is 15 [Mertz] is a very capable player,” said Napier. “I think when given the opportunity, if we can protect him, if we can create separation, if we can win individual matchups, [if] we’ve got a good designed play, he can get it to the right guy, right?

“I do think that we are steadily improving around him. I think the freshmen tight ends [Arlis Boardingham, Hayden Hansen] are growing up. I think the continuity in the offensive line has helped us. I think we’re getting some pretty good receiver play week to week, depending on who’s available.”

Napier threw a lot of "ifs" out there about UF’s offense for good reason. That’s because Georgia is an unmerciful opponent on multiple levels.

The Bulldogs are ranked in the top 10 nationally in virtually every meaningful statistical category except rushing, where their 172.4 yards per game is 47th. Georgia is first in third-down defense (.271), second in third-down offense (.571), third in total offense (509.4 yards), sixth in total defense (262.6 yards) and seventh in both points scored (40.1 ppg) and points allowed (14.0 ppg).

Losing all those players to the NFL Draft, including two-time championship quarterback Stetson Bennett, has only moderately diminished the Bulldogs, who won all 15 games last year in convincing fashion except the 26-22 scare at Missouri.

Georgia has looked a tad more beatable this season, falling behind 14-3 at halftime against South Carolina before prevailing 24-14. It also needed a 40-yard pass from Mandarin High product Carson Beck to Bowers for the game-winning TD in the final three minutes to turn back Auburn, 27-20.

Except for its dominant showing against Kentucky, the Bulldogs have been prone to slow starts, which must also happen for Florida to have a realistic shot at what would likely be viewed as the biggest upset in series history.

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Georgia shoulders burden of history

Napier fully understands how small a margin for error the Gators have against Georgia, which has outscored opponents 134-46 in the second half. The juggernaut the Bulldogs were with Bennett under center has shown only brief glimpses of a letup with Beck.

“Ultimately, I think it speaks to the level of consistency that they’ve been able to achieve from a continuity standpoint,” said Napier. “The systems on offense, defense and in the kicking game have remained the same, therefore the players continue to develop.

“They’re working on the same concepts, the same set of fundamentals. I think they benefitted from that.”

But Georgia is no different than other teams who have carried the weight of being No. 1 for a prolonged period. Sooner or later, the burden can become rather unbearable.

Just the fact the Bulldogs have won a record 22 straight games as a defending national champion is a remarkable achievement. The next-best streaks under those circumstances were all just after World War II — Notre Dame (18, 1947-48), Oklahoma (17, 1956-57) and Army (16, 1945-46).

As talented and well-coached as Georgia is, this phenomenal streak may not hold up beyond this season. After Florida, the Bulldogs face No. 11 Missouri, No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 17 Tennessee in successive weeks, and likely without Bowers, one of the most lethal weapons in college football.

“Obviously this is not only one of the best players in America this year, last year, I mean, this is one of the best players of all time,” Napier said. “I mean, this guy is a really, really unique matchup relative to his ability to run routes and get open, his ability to run after the catch.”

Fortunately for the Gators’ defense, it won’t have to deal with Bowers. However, what doesn’t change is Florida’s offense has to find ways to score and stay on the field, two things it doesn’t do particularly well. UF is tied for 63rd in scoring (29.1 ppg) and ranked 108th in third-down conversions (.333, 27 of 81).

Mertz has enough playmakers, receivers Ricky Pearsall and Eugene “Trey” Wilson, along with the emerging Boardingham, to do some damage if his bodyguards can protect him.

Facing an unbeaten top rival would be an appropriate time for Napier to get creative. This is a low-risk, high-reward game. So why not empty the playbook, dial up plays Georgia hasn’t seen on tape and give a checkdown-inclined quarterback the green light to let it rip.

This is Florida’s chance to shake up the college football world, an opportunity for Napier to silence the doubters who wonder if his program will ever be a national contender.

It’s No. 1 Georgia, with the stakes being an inside track to SEC East division supremacy.

No need for the Gators to hold anything back.

Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540 

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Florida has chance to put itself on national map by taking down Goliath