The Funnel Defense Report: Week 17

Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 16 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.

Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 16. All of these matchups are, of course, subject to wonky game script that could nullify any trends in how a defense is being best exploited.

Run Funnel Defenses

Arizona Cardinals

The Cards, fresh off allowing 250 yards on 35 rushes to the Bears in Week 16, remain a run defense to target relentlessly for fantasy matchup purposes. Folks, we’re going back to the well in fantasy championship week.

Only three teams qualify as a more extreme run funnel than the Cardinals this season. Arizona opponents have run the ball at a 45 percent clip in neutral game script on the season; over the past month, that number has ballooned to 49 percent.

The Bears, after being above their expected drop back rate in three straight games, were 5 percent under that rate against Arizona in Week 16. In fact, all of the Cardinals’ past four opponents have been below their expected drop back rate. It makes some sense when you see Arizona is allowing the league’s sixth highest rush EPA since Week 10. No one allows more rush yards before contact per rush than the Cards (a stat that correlates nicely with explosive rushing attempts).

What it means for Week 17: Eagles fans have begged the team to abandon the pass and establish the run and Nick Sirianni has obliged. Over their past three outings -- two of which were losses and one of which was a nail biter win against the Giants -- the Eagles were 4 percent under their expected drop back rate, with their neutral rush rate ranking as the league’s second highest. This, of course, is decidedly bad for Philadelphia pass catchers not named A.J. Brown.

Look for the afraid-to-lose Eagles to turn to the run once again this week against the Cardinals, fueling rush volume for D’Andre Swift, who in Week 16 handled 20 of 27 running back carries for the Eagles. Swift has a hefty 71 percent rush share in the Philly backfield over the team’s past four games. Him and Jalen Hurts should be able to run to their heart’s content in Week 17.

New Orleans Saints

I’ve highlighted the Saints in this space over the past couple weeks and I refuse to stop now. I refuse.

Anyway, the Saints are now the NFL’s sixth most pronounced run funnel, and since Week 12, New Orleans opponents have a league-high 55 percent rush rate in neutral situations (when the game is within seven points either way).

The Rams last week went run heavy (3 percent under their expected drop back rate) and Kyren Williams benefited with 22 rushes for 104 yards and a score. LA totaled 33 rushing attempts against the Saints in their Thursday night win.

What it means for Week 17: Today’s Bucs aren’t the Bucs of September and October, when Tampa was regularly (way) above their expected pass rate and Mike Evans was benefitting bigly. Since Week 12, only four teams have a lower neutral pass rate than the Bucs. When Tampa has had a lead over the past month, they’ve passed at a 47 percent rate.

Obviously you’re playing Evans with confidence this week. Maybe Chris Godwin too, since the guy has 33 targets over his past three games. Rashaad White, with a 73 percent rush share this season, is in a quietly fantastic spot barring some kind of weird game script situation against New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta opponents have hammered the dirty birds on the ground since Thanksgiving. The Falcons profile as the league’s most extreme run funnel defense over the past four weeks, and no one is particularly close.

Teams facing the Falcons have a league-low 47 percent pass rate since Week 12. Just two weeks ago, Carolina was a stunning 19 percent below its expected drop back rate against these Falcons. Teams are establishing it against the king of establishing it, Arthur Smith.

What it means for Week 17: The Bears, fresh off a massively run heavy game against the run-funnel Cardinals, are set to run it back on the ground against Atlanta.

Against Arizona, the Bears had a 48 percent neutral pass rate, the third lowest of the week (see above for details on how thoroughly the Bears dominated the Cards on the ground). There’s little reason to believe Justin Fields will air it out here unless game script gets whacky and Chicago has to abandon the run. D’Ontae Foreman, who missed Week 16 due to a personal issue, could resume his lead back role and see surprising rush volume against the Falcons. If not, maybe Khalil Herbert gets the lead back nod. There will be tea leaves to read in the coming days.

The Bears since Week 12 have passed at a meager 42 percent rate while leading. They’re a three-point favorite this week. You do the math. I’m tired.

Pass Funnel Defenses

San Francisco 49ers

Are you even a funnel defense knower if you weren’t anticipating me writing about the 49ers being the NFL’s most pronounced pass funnel? No. The answer is no.

You know the drill: No one runs the ball against San Francisco. Even the balanced Ravens were 9 percent over their expected drop back rate against the Niners, well above their season-long rate of 4 percent. Baltimore unleashed an unapologetically pass-first offense against the Niners, passing the ball at a 72 percent rate in neutral situations.

49ers opponents have a 64 percent neutral pass rate since Week 9 and none of them have been below their expected drop back rate (it’s curious because the Niners aren’t exactly shutting down opposing rushing attacks, giving up the seventh highest rush EPA this season).

What it means for Week 17: A funny thing happened when the Commanders officially benched Sam Howell — who has a real argument for being the league’s worst quarterback — for veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett. The total for the Commanders-Niners game spiked from a humble 42 to 49.5. It certainly makes one think.

I think we’ll see the Commanders get back to their wildly pass heavy ways after a couple weeks of trying like hell to hide Howell with a balanced approach. Remember, this is the Washington offense that was 7 percent over its expected drop back rate before Howell’s collapse. No team had a higher neutral pass rate than the Commanders in the season’s first ten weeks.

Brissett, in limited action as Washington’s QB, has targeted Terry McLaurin at a 23 percent rate and Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel on 18 percent of his throws. Brissett under center makes McLaurin a potential fantasy championship winner based on volume alone. If you’re facing Scary Terry in Week 17, be frightened. Samuel and Dotson profile as good-enough PPR options against the pass-funnel Niners. Maybe cardio king Logan Thomas can get in on the action too; the 49ers have allowed 22 tight end receptions over the past two weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Jaguars and Eagles facing slightly more rushing attempts in recent weeks means the Bucs head into Week 17 as the league’s second most extreme pass funnel, trailing only the Niners.

Last week, we saw the Jaguars post a 0 percent drop back rate over expected, which might seem like Jacksonville deployed a balanced offense until one realizes the Jags dropped back on 87 percent of their drop backs. Tampa opponents have a 65 percent neutral pass rate over the past three weeks as the Bucs’ front seven gets healthier and once again stops rushing attacks in their proverbial and literal tracks.

What it means for Week 17: Derek Carr is in a decent position to keep up the heater he’s on. Carr’s recent touchdown-driven outbursts have come as the Saints have posted a 63 percent neutral pass rate over the past two games, up from their season-long 58 percent rate. It helps that the Taysom Hill play package shrunk to almost nothing in Week 15 and Week 16. Quarterbacks need red zone opportunities to score fantasy points, it turns out.

In somewhat normal game script, Carr and the Saints should continue with at least a moderately pass-heavy approach this week against Tampa. They were 4 percent over their expected drop back rate in Week 4 against these Bucs, passing at a 69 percent clip in neutral script.

That should be enough to lock in target volume for air yards dominators Chris Olave and, presumably, Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed might not be as boom-bust as usual with an expected uptick in pass volume here. Juwan Johnson, third on the team in targets over the past two weeks, could be used as a desperation streamer against Tampa.

New England Patriots

In a late-breaking development, the Pats have become a fairly reliable pass funnel. Only the 49ers and Chiefs, in fact, are more pronounced pass funnel defenses over the past four weeks, as New England opponents have posted a 64 percent neutral pass rate -- the fourth highest in the league over that month-long stretch.

The Patriots have been stellar against the run. Since Week 9, only the Raiders have given up a lower rush EPA, and only two teams — the Texans and Dolphins — have allowed a lower rushing success rate. That’s left Patriots opponents to attack via the pass. And the Pats have been middling, at best, against the pass over the past seven weeks.

What it means for Week 17: The Bills, who have turned into the Falcons over the past couple weeks, could get back to a balanced attack against New England’s stout rush defense.

Buffalo was 1 percent over its expected drop back rate when these teams met in Week 7 (dropping back on a hefty 70 percent of their snaps). Josh Allen threw the ball 41 times, a far cry from his 36 total attempts over the past two games. A Bills offense that doesn’t operate like it’s 1957 could reestablish target volume for Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, and other Bills pass catchers who have been fantasy irrelevant over the team’s run-heavy stretch. Diggs, for one, had 12 targets in Week 7 against the Patriots.