It’s that time of year where a nudge here or there in the rankings by the College Football Playoff Committee can make a huge difference in what kind of odds a team like Ohio State has in making the CFP. The Buckeyes more or less control their own destiny but will have to deal with the hand that the CFP Committee deals them regardless (we’ve seen that before).

To keep track of where OSU’s odds stand on getting in on all of the fun, we like to keep our eyes peeled on what the folks at the popular analytic site FiveThirtyEight have to say about what’s going on. Each week, they update the CFP odds based on the outcome of games and spin it through whatever genius-level equation they have, and share it all with the enquiring college football minds.

We have the latest projections and we’re going to break them down for the top eleven on the board at the moment. Remember, this will all change about a dozen ways leading up to the final rankings and selection Sunday, but it’s good to know where everyone — including, of course, Ohio State, stands about a month out from when travel plans will be made.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Michigan State Spartans (8-1)

Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs against Michigan defensive back R.J. Moten (6) during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Maryland
11/20 – at Ohio State
11/27 – vs. Penn State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

9% (down from 25%)

Chances if win out

97% (down from 99%)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)

Sep 5, 2021; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Joe Wilkins Jr. (5) celebrates with running back Kyren Williams (23) after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Virginia
11/20 – vs. Georgia Tech
11/27 – at Stanford

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

14% (up from 12%)

Chances if win out

31% (no change)

Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)

Sep 8, 2018; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies mascot Reveille runs onto the field before the game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Clemson Tigers at Kyle Field. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Ole Miss
11/20 – vs. Prairie View
11/27 – at LSU

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

14% (new to our piece this week)

Chances if win out

54% (new to our piece this week)

Michigan Wolverines (8-1)

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) rushes the quarterback as Wisconsin Badgers offensive lineman Logan Bruss (60) blocks during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Penn State
11/20 – at Maryland
11/27 – vs. Ohio State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

17% (up from 13%)

Chances if win out

85% (up from 64%)

Oklahoma State (8-1)

Oct 30, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy looks up at the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against Kansas Jayhawks at Boone Pickens Stadium. Oklahoma State won 55-3. Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. TCU
11/20 – at Texas Tech
11/27 – vs. Oklahoma

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

25% (up from 16%)

Chances if win out

98% (no change)

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0)

Cincinnati Bearcats wide receiver Michael Young Jr. (8), left, and quarterback Desmond Ridder celebrate after Ridder ran the ball toward the end zone that set up a touchdown during the 1st half at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans Saturday, October 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/12 – at USF
11/20 – vs. SMU
11/26 – at Eastern Carolina

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

30% (down from 31%)

Chances if win out

62% (down from 63%)

Oregon Ducks (8-1)

Dec 6, 2019; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks mascot Puddles poses with a rose during the Pac-12 Conference championship game against the Utah Utes at Levi’s Stadium. Oregon defeated Utah 37-15 to earn a Rose Bowl berth. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Washington State
11/20 – at Utah
11/27 – vs. Oregon State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

37% (up from 29%)

Chances if win out

98% (up from 96%)

Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1)

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Chris Olave (2) scores the first touchdown for the Buckeyes during Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb., on November 6, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. Purdue
11/20 – vs. Michigan State
11/27 – at Michigan

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

42% (up from 41%)

Chances if win out

98% (down from 99%)

Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)

Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams (13) lines up for a play during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Baylor
11/20 – vs. Iowa State
11/27 – at Oklahoma State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

45% (down from 46%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)

Oct 23, 2021; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrates after a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – vs. New Mexico State
11/20 – vs. Arkansas
11/27 – at Auburn

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

53% (down from 54%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Georgia Bulldogs (9-0)

Sep 25, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) runs the ball during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Tennesee
11/20 – vs. Charleston Southern
11/27 – at Georgia Tech

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

80% (up from 79%)

Chances if win out

>99% (no change)

Five Thirty Eight Playoff Odds and Predictions Summarized

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