The fifth pick and the Titans
The fifth pick and the Titans
The fifth pick must yield an elite player. An elite player has “all the tools” to succeed at a high level in the NFL for many years. The probability of the drafted player becoming a superstar is also high, but that is not essential.
A player like Taylor Lewan that seems to be on his way to leading the Titans offensive line for ten years would be an elite, non-superstar, type. Lewan won’t be throwing or running for a zillion yards. Linemen are never the focus of fans like the quarterback or running back is etc. Lewan was actually drafted 11th. This was just used to describe an example of a type of non-superstar. Lewan is invaluable to the Titans (and Marcus Mariota staying upright) and could yield many pro bowl seasons.
There have been drafts where there were as many as twelve elite players and some with as few as two elite players. Draft grades are extremely important, usually from picks five through ten. The “shine” on general manager Jon Robinson came from trading the first pick in 2016 and drafting a top tackle with the 8th pick-Jack Conklin. He clearly thought there were at least 8 elite players.
By my count, this draft has nine elite players and then I would refer to the rest of the first round athletes as excellent. In this context, every team that selects from pick 10 on down to 32 would want to move into a top nine pick.
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We have commonly discussed three needs for the Titans. One was the need for a top end wide receiver. The second was the need for a Polamalu/Woodson/Lake type of safety and only an elite safety. The third need was to upgrade the cornerback position with an elite shutdown corner.
Former scout, Daniel Jeremiah, lists his top 50 prospects here.
He seems to consider two safeties elite- Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams. Part of his description of Hooker is: ” He has the best ball skills of any safety I’ve ever evaluated in college.” Part of his description of Adams is: “He is a dynamic athlete, and I’ve been told his intangibles are off the charts. He will be a tone-setter for an NFL defense…”
He seems to consider one cornerback elite-Marshon Lattimore. Part of his description of Lattimore is: ” I love the way he competes. He has all of the tools to develop into a No. 1 cornerback at the next level.”
At wide receiver, he seems to consider two wide receivers elite- Corey Davis and Mike Williams. Part of his description of Davis is: ” He lines up inside and outside, and he’s a very polished and precise route runner.” Part of his description of Williams is: “Overall, his combination of size, physicality, and nasty temperament is unique. He should be a true No. 1 receiver very early in his NFL career.”
In our scenario here- These are the five targets of the Titans in the draft. I do not think Jon Robinson trades the fifth pick “in this light.” Every common scenario that is suggested for a trade, the Titans can not recover from and still net an elite prospect.
As I mentioned earlier, I see nine elite prospects in this draft. I could imagine Robinson trading down a little to still pick within this top nine- from five to nine, for example. That is it.
If Robinson is seeking a top tight end, Jeremiah lists two at 12 and 13.
If Robinson is seeking a top defensive end, Jeremiah lists the second best at 10 and the third best at 16.
If Robinson is seeking a top linebacker, Jeremiah lists the second best at 30 and the third best at 34.
We can go on and on here.
I think our prediction of wide receiver, cornerback, and safety are correct. As such, I do not imagine Robinson trades away this fifth pick in the draft. The Titans are an up and coming team. They aren’t likely to get a top five pick in the near future. This may be their last opportunity to select an elite talent for years. If one factors in this “not anytime soon” thinking, the pick becomes even more valuable.
If Robinson does trade down, then I believe it is not for a safety or wide receiver. The Titans lack some quality at cornerback, so several of the later cornerbacks would still be an upgrade for them. Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews, Kevin Byard, and Da’Norris Searcy are all either better than anyone else in the draft or the Titans have given the impression that they believe the players are better. There isn’t any logic to drafting someone to supplant any of these four as long as the Titans adore them.
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