Fantasy Football: Should Tony Pollard be the No. 2-ranked RB of 2023?
Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don analyzes some key running backs as we head into the heat of draft season.
Case for Tony Pollard as fantasy's RB2
Christian McCaffrey deserves the top spot among fantasy RBs given his usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense (even with the Elijah Mitchell factor). But there’s a big tier after CMC consisting of nine running backs all with similar arguments (and questions) to be ranked next. Tony Pollard is my No. 2 fantasy back (his expert consensus rank is the RB9), assuming Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t return to Dallas. Pollard averaged 19.3 PPR points when given 10 carries last season, which would have been good for fantasy’s RB3.
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He finished as the RB8 despite seeing fewer than 50% of the snaps in eight games and totaling a modest 232 touches — Dallas running backs combined for 524, and Elliott is gone. Pollard won’t become a true workhorse getting 325+ touches, but he’s averaged 102.3 yards from scrimmage and 0.91 touchdowns during games with a snap rate of more than 50% throughout his career; now, he’s clearly set up for by far the most opportunities of his career.
Meanwhile, there are reasons for concern with the other eight similarly ranked running backs:
Jonathan Taylor has Anthony Richardson concerns (the mobile QB should help Taylor’s YPC but could steal goal-line work and limit targets in an offense that could be bottom-five). He has also asked for a trade and seems mired in an ugly contract situation.
Bijan Robinson is a rookie on a low-volume offense with a former third-round pick starting at QB.
Austin Ekeler is 28 years old and his fantasy value has been greatly boosted by 25 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons despite never reaching 210 carries.
Saquon Barkley may have signed a new deal but looks increasingly unlikely to ever return to the player he was when entering the league.
Nick Chubb could continue to cede passing down work (this time to Jerome Ford) and suffered a dramatic drop in production after Deshaun Watson took over.
Josh Jacobs is a holdout threat, could easily be playing with one of the worst QB situations and has history against him after just leading the league in touches.
Derrick Henry is 29 years old and has been worked and worked and worked ...
I’m all in on Breece Hall, but he’s returning from a torn ACL (and rookie Israel Abanikanda could present a bigger threat to steal touches) and now the Jets seem poised to sign Dalvin Cook.
Pollard is due for touchdown regression and will suffer from Kellen Moore’s departure, but Mike McCarthy’s run-heavy play-calling should help.
Pollard in Round 3 was always too good to be true, but he’s still an absolute smash in the late second.
Rashaad Penny to the moon 🚀
Penny has an extensive injury history and likely carries more risk than most running backs, but that’s why his ADP is 92.9 despite having “league-winning” fantasy upside. Penny had one of the best collegiate seasons of all time, totaling 2,383 yards from scrimmage with 25 touchdowns over 13 games during his final year at San Diego State. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in yards per carry (minimum 300 rushes) — ahead of Bo Jackson and Jamaal Charles.
Penny just turned 27 years old (and has low career mileage), excels in yards after contact and may break charts in Philadelphia’s system. He’s outproduced Derrick Henry when given 12+ carries in a game during his career.
Penny now joins a highly successful Eagles offense that lost Miles Sanders to free agency and sports one of the league’s best lines. Philadelphia also ranked first in pace and plays per minute last season. Jalen Hurts will steal touchdowns, but Sanders had the fourth-most red-zone rushes and scored 11 touchdowns last year in this role. Penny hasn’t been used heavily in the passing game, but Hurts targeted RBs at one of the league’s lowest rates last season, so newcomer D’Andre Swift appears to be a poor fit in his new scheme (and is a similar injury risk).
The Penny-getting-released chatter thanks to his cheap contract seems highly unlikely given his health clearance (and since he’s the team’s best option to play running back). I’ll give Penny a 50/50 chance at scoring more fantasy points this season than Miles Sanders, who is going five rounds earlier.
Every running back has real injury risk; Penny is a top-25 RB on my board.
You might want to avoid Rachaad White at ADP
White is seeing plenty of fantasy love as the Buccaneers’ likely new workhorse thanks to little RB competition in Tampa Bay. But expectations should be held in check (and fantasy picks around his 78.3 Yahoo ADP should be used elsewhere, like on our guy Rashaad Penny instead). White is a late third-round pick who’s never reached 200 carries dating back to college and was one of the worst runners in the league as a rookie, finishing dead last in rush yards over expectations. He was also outplayed by dusty Leonard Fournette in the passing game and benefitted greatly from Tom Brady checkdowns.
The Buccaneers are going from providing the most catchable targets in the league last season to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask). Mayfield also targets running backs, but his EPA/dropback (-0.12) and CPOE (-7%) were both worse than Zach Wilson last season; a downgrade doesn’t get any more dramatic than going from the GOAT to Mayfield. Tampa Bay scored the second-fewest points in the NFC last season and is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023.
White’s sell-high window in dynasty leagues is right now.
