Fantasy Fight Forecasting: 6 options for Conor McGregor’s UFC return and his chances to win

Fantasy Fight Forecasting is making its return on this rare off week from the UFC schedule. I’ll use this opportunity to examine the potential odds and opponents for the return of Conor McGregor, offering supplemental statistics and prognostications along the way.

McGregor was most recently seen inside the octagon opposite Dustin Poirier at UFC 264, where he sustained fight-ending injuries to his left fibula and tibia.

The famed Irish fighter reportedly is back sparring and can be expected to step back into competition later this year. Between his popularity and his polarizing nature, McGregor shouldn’t struggle when it comes to potential suitors for the occasion.

Without further ado, here’s a list of six potential matchups for McGregor with predictive analysis.

Potential Matchup: Michael Chandler (23-7 MMA, 2-2 UFC)

Michael Chandler

Why it could happen: Aside from the fact [autotag]Michael Chandler[/autotag] has been brushing up on pro wrestling promos in order to ask for this fight, it feels like an easy sell for all parties involved.

Not only does the UFC get to promote two of its favorite marketing types (“wholesome” athletes and intriguing bad boys), but McGegor gets a chance to bounce back against arguably one of the more winnable fights on this list.

Predicted/listed line: Chandler -155, McGregor +135

Thoughts: Despite my handicap of this matchup being a bit closer to pick’em odds, I can completely understand the future line that’s being listed both above and at some online houses.

Although it’s not uncommon to see Chandler clipped early in both victory or defeat, the former University of Missouri wrestler carries an undeniable wrestling edge and also is undefeated against notable southpaws – he’s 4-0 against a healthy mix of UFC and Bellator-level opposition.

Against Goiti Yamauchi, for example, Chandler elected to smartly work the body and wrestle a deceptively dangerous southpaw counter fighter. That said, it’s ultimately hard to count on Chandler to fight smart, and I suspect that McGregor’s chances are slightly better than the odds or general opinions may indicate.

Chandler may not have expected to see a somewhat dedicated southpaw stance from Tony Ferguson early, but that doesn’t change the fact that “El Cucuy” was able to pressure the former Bellator champ into multiple counter crosses from the left side that seemed to sting him each time.

Nevertheless, I still can’t ignore Chandler’s solid ground skills and athletic superiority. I suspect the latter bails him out of the bad spots in this one.

Early pick: Chander via second-round TKO (punches)

Potential matchup: Charles Oliveira (33-8 MMA, 21-8 UFC)

Charles Oliveira

Why it could happen: As I’ve said for some time now, the UFC’s most valuable belt is the lightweight title, simply for the fact that is the championship most realistically within reach for McGregor. And given that [autotag]Charles Oliveira[/autotag] is the rightful heir to the throne at 155 pounds (he was, frankly, done dirty and is still somehow struggling to get his deserved due), this matchup is more than feasible according to UFC logic and precedence.

Furthermore, both fighters have expressed interest in fighting one another on multiple occasions.

Oliveira has been calling out McGregor since his post-fight interview in Sao Paulo following a 2019 knockout win over Jared Gordon. McGregor, through his usual social media presence on Twitter, has shown interest in fighting Oliveira after each of his recent title defenses.

Predicted/listed line: Oliveira -245, McGregor +175

Thoughts: With there surprisingly being no future line listed for this matchup, I went ahead and handicapped this one myself.

Although I suspect the oddsmakers wouldn’t give Oliveira as much credit as I am, I still think the Brazilian should be a firm favorite if this fight ever gets put together.

Not only is Oliveira officially 4-1 against UFC-level lefties, but the uncrowned lightweight king also is the best kicker on this list by a decent stretch. And considering that the elephant in the room will undoubtedly be the status of McGregor’s lower left leg upon his return, then no one should be shocked to see Oliveira test the Irishman here early and often.

Still, I suspect McGregor will have ample opportunities to score the upset early.

Aside from being dropped in the first round of his last three fights, timing change-ups and well-timed counters alike seem to trouble Oliveira the most (likely due to his noted vision issues and reliance on sensory inputs such as touch). However, it’s ultimately hard to ignore Oliveria’s superior submission and wrestling prowess in this sort of matchup.

Add in the fact McGregor, akin to Justin Gaethje, won’t be able to safely follow any potentially scored knockdowns to the floor, and it’s an easy pick for Oliveira to survive the initial storm en route to another submission win.

Early pick: Oliveira by first-round submission (rear-naked choke)

Potential matchup: Tony Ferguson (25-7 MMA, 15-5 UFC)

Tony Ferguson

Why it could happen: Aside from the fact these are two former titleholders who find themselves on rough losing skids, there is legitimate reasoning for the feud between [autotag]Tony Ferguson[/autotag] and McGregor.

Not only did Ferguson and McGregor share management during crucial times in their careers when they were both in contention for the same title (which is a huge conflict of interest, mind you), but subsequent dealings seemingly left Ferguson with the short end of the stick on multiple occasions. He, like Charles Oliveira now, was unfairly stripped of his title during a time when he was arguably the uncrowned king.

Now is as good a time as any to settle the score, especially with this being one of the matchups that makes the most sense on this list.

Predicted/listed line: McGregor -300, Ferguson +250

Thoughts: Despite the current future lines/line listed above being much wider than I’m comfortable with, I don’t disagree with giving McGregor distinction as the favorite in this spot.

I may be one of Ferguson’s most avid defenders among analysts and media members, but even I can acknowledge the problem with someone who presents as many opportunities for damage as Ferguson does. Add in the fact Ferguson’s breakneck style has created a massive bill that we’re witnessing his body pay the tab for, and it’s hard to bank on the early durability that his style is dependent on.

Those who know me know I’ll usually take the more well-rounded builder over an athletic opportunist most days of the week, but I’d probably go with Phil Mackenzie’s classic “sadness hedge” here.

Even though Ferguson has traditionally struck well with southpaws (officially standing at 4-2 against UFC-level lefties), the former Grand Valley State rep has only attempted seven takedowns in the past seven years and has completed only three in his past decade of competition.

Factor in the potentially compromised legs on both sides of this equation, and it’s hard not to like McGregor’s chances a bit better. Unless Ferguson makes some serious changes and gets with a camp that can get him properly prepared in the tactics and strategy department, then I’ll probably end up picking McGregor if this matchup ever gets made.

Early pick: McGregor by first-round knockout (punch)

Potential matchup: Islam Makhachev (22-1 MMA, 11-1 UFC)

Islam Makhachev

Why it could happen: Although a title fight or fight with McGregor may not be next in the cards for [autotag]Islam Makhachev[/autotag], this matchup is still a very sellable one from a promotional perspective.

Makhachev’s obvious connection with Khabib Nurmagomedov would be a huge selling point for said promotional narrative. Getting McGregor’s former foe in the picture would be a big deal for many (though those like myself know that this matchup has a higher probability of creating more regrettable moments for McGregor than it does for inspiring a Nurmagomedov comeback).

Nevertheless, no one can deny the feud that was spawned between these two camps at UFC 229. A McGregor-Makhachev matchup, no matter the context, is something I wouldn’t put past the promotion.

Predicted/listed line: Makhachev -330, McGregor +250

Thoughts: Even though the oddsmakers made Makhachev a similar-sized favorite over Charles Oliveira in their “futures” category (which is completely disrespectful to the champ, by the way), I felt that this wide a spread was more appropriate for this sort of matchup.

Not only have we already seen the grappling metagame that Makhachev employs dominate and dismantle McGregor back when he fought Nurmagomedov at UFC 229, but I’d argue that Makhachev offers more technical folds to the fight game than his notable mentor.

Makhachev may not have the same level of force or athleticism as Nurmagomedov, but the Dagestani fighter is arguably more technical and diverse, both on the feet and the floor. The 30-year-old southpaw also relies heavily on his check right hook, as I see that strike paying potential dividends against another lefty with suspect depth in their lead hand.

Sure, Makhachev’s lone loss did come at the hands of a check right hook from fellow southpaw Adriano Martins, but the 12-year pro has made massive improvements since then, bringing his record against southpaws to 2-1 in the UFC. Add in the fact that McGregor lacks a consistent checking presence off of his lead hand, and I feel like this is a fairly straightforward pick for Makhachev.

Early pick: Makhachev by second-round submission (rear-naked choke)

Potential matchup: Nate Diaz (20-13 MMA, 15-11 UFC)

Nate Diaz

Why it could happen: Between [autotag]Nate Diaz[/autotag]’s contentious relationship with the UFC and the state of fighter contracts and leverage (or lack thereof) alike, the chances of this rubber match getting booked next is slim to none if I’m being honest.

That said, this is also ironically the most appropriate matchup to make on this entire list.

They’re 1-1 against each other, as this rivalry dates back to well over half a decade ago. Diaz initially submitted McGregor on short notice back at UFC 196, while McGregor was able to edge out a decision in their rematch at UFC 202.

It’s not often we get trilogies that make sense in this sport, as I’d be perfectly okay with this booking.

Predicted/listed line: McGregor -190, Diaz +160

Thoughts: Given that the oddsmakers opened McGregor as a -130 favorite in his rematch with Diaz despite him losing the first fight rather convincingly, I don’t feel too bad for setting a line that’s roughly the median between their two meetings.

Diaz, on the other hand, should be used to the role of the underdog as his opponent has been favored to beat him in 11 of his last 12 fights (with Diaz’s lone favorite distinction in said sample coming against Josh Thomson, oddly enough).

I’ve actually been a longtime fan of the younger Diaz brother, but it’s been hard to back him as an analyst who is trying to be unbiased. Not only has Diaz seemingly morphed into the second coming of Tito Ortiz in regards to the consistent level of excuses he offers post-poor performances, but Stockton’s finest has also been just as – if not more – inactive than McGregor.

Couple all that with Diaz’s propensity to wear damage poorly, and I believe that this is still a winnable fight for McGregor.

I once called into MMAJunkie Radio as a listener to predict that Nate Diaz would beat Marcus Davis at UFC 118 via a cut stoppage (that probably would’ve happened if that fight was anywhere but Boston), but I think that the Irish fighter ends up on the right side of this one as I’ll go the other way here.

Early pick: McGregor by third-round TKO (doctor’s stoppage)

Potential matchup: Kamaru Usman (20-1 MMA, 15-0 UFC)

Kamaru Usman

Why it could happen: Despite this being one of the least likely bookings of this grouping, it’s hard to ignore [autotag]Kamaru Usman[/autotag]’s current lust for the elusive “money fight.”

However, it’s also hard to blame any of these fighters for chasing the money considering the level of sacrifice this sport demands in comparison to the disproportional rewards and difficulty of longevity.

This may not be the smartest fight for McGregor to take on paper, but the potential of being the first UFC fighter to earn titles in three different categories would be too much for the Irishman to pass up regardless of who else is in the picture.

Predicted/listed line: Usman -700, McGregor +450

Thoughts: Although the line above is another listed future that’s a bit too wide for my liking, I obviously don’t disagree with Usman being a sizeable favorite.

Aside from the sheer size difference, Usman presents a ton of stylistic problems from his staying power to his wrestling prowess. Usman also is officially 6-0 against UFC-level southpaws, though those fights weren’t without issues.

In his first fight with Covington, for example, Usman was on the wrong end of a decent amount of left hands and lead shovel-hook variations – shots that McGregor is savvy with.

Should McGregor show his predicted speed advantage early and often, then perhaps he, too, can sting Usman given that Covington is one of the smaller welterweights who traditionally lack power. That said, it’s hard to make a convincing case for McGregor.

It’s also difficult to confidently forecast this fight in general. I suspect Usman either grounds McGregor early for coming in hot or we end up with a surprisingly tentative feeling-out period from both fighters. So unless someone can knock the other out cold in the first, I see Usman conservatively cooking what he catches from topside, eventually forcing a stoppage by the middle rounds.

Early pick: Usman by third-round TKO (punches)

1

1