Fantasy Baseball: Why Jesus Luzardo's debut is a lesson about early season pitching
Jesús Luzardo had a brilliant fantasy season debut Tuesday, recording 12 strikeouts with the second-fewest pitches in a game in MLB history; his 44.7 CSW percentage tied for the 32nd best mark of all time.
In other words, it was a signature performance even if the box score shows a somewhat modest one earned run allowed over five innings (his FIP was -1.09!).
The former top prospect is coming off an extremely disappointing 2021 but saw his ADP rise as the season approached thanks to a dominant spring that included a dramatic increase in velocity which continued into Tuesday’s start. His curveball also looked terrific, so fantasy managers have every right to be excited. Luzardo is just 37% rostered in Yahoo leagues, which figures to climb fast (and furious).
Note that Luzardo will next take on a Cardinals offense that entered Tuesday leading MLB in wRC+ and then the defending World Series champs during his next two scheduled starts, but he’s clearly worth rostering in even the shallowest of leagues at this point. Miami may struggle to provide run support, but Marlins Park is among the leaders in decreasing homers, which is especially helpful to an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Luzardo.
Luzardo's debut highlights a key point about early season fantasy pitching
While most of the time I’m going to preach extreme patience at this point of the season — Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are all sporting an OPS under .450 right now, which would be equivalent to still being in the first quarter of the first game of the NFL season — when it comes to pitchers who show significant velocity increases (to go along with legit peripherals), I’m willing to change my view immediately.
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Tylor Megill is another example, as he’s followed a buzzy spring in which he flashed impressive velocity with a couple of eye-opening starts, including shutting down a Phillies offense with a top-five wRC+ that entered Tuesday in a hitter’s park.
CYLOR has an 11:0 K:BB ratio after two starts and has yet to pitch at home, where Citi Field both decreases run scoring more than any other park in the league while also increasing strikeouts the most. And again, Megill’s obvious jump in velocity suggests his start is for real.
Put differently, I’d rank Luzardo and Megill far higher now than I did two weeks ago.
