Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Final tips before the default deadline
There is still time for managers to make a wise trade that pushes their team over the top, but they need to act fast, as the Trade Deadline in most Yahoo leagues passes tomorrow evening. With that in mind, this is not the time to beat around the bush. My best advice this week is to start with your best offer when initializing trade talks, as a lowball offer that is met with a disinterested response will not get the job done.
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Additionally, this is the time to send out offers to multiple teams at the same time, as you don’t have the luxury of dealing with your preferred partner before moving on if things don’t work out.
For the final time in 2023, here are a few players who could be a fit for trades in your league.
Players to Acquire
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, Toronto Blue Jays)
Guerrero has been one of the most underwhelming stars this year, having produced a .749 OPS since May 1. There may be some managers who are willing to give up on the 24-year-old and trade him away for a reasonable return without noticing his massive potential for head-to-head playoffs if he can get his season on track. The Blue Jays begin a 12-game stretch of games on Aug. 28 that includes series against the Nats (4.88 ERA), Rockies (5.51 ERA), A’s (5.83 ERA) and Royals (5.19 ERA). Statcast assigns Guerrero with a .387 xwOBA — 49 points higher than his actual mark, which suggests that bad luck has played a role in his struggles.
Zack Wheeler (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)
Wheeler has been effective this year (3.74 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) but the advanced stats still label him as one of this year’s biggest underachievers. The right-hander owns an unfortunate 71.2% strand rate, and all of the ERA indicators have him with a mark that is significantly lower than his actual ERA. Wheeler ranks fifth in baseball in K-BB% (22.8%), which is one of the biggest indicators of success. He could be as valuable as any starter down the stretch.
Pablo López (SP, Minnesota Twins)
Speaking of K-BB%, López ranks fourth in baseball in that key statistic, trailing only Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman and Joe Ryan. Of course, that’s great company to be in. With an xERA (3.08) that is significantly lower than his actual mark (3.81), López could trend upward down the stretch.
Dylan Cease (SP, Chicago White Sox)
This suggestion is strictly for teams who need to take a big risk to catch up in the standings. Cease has been one of the worst starters in baseball (5.40 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) since the beginning of July. The awful stretch in recent starts is precisely the reason that the right-hander could be acquired at a major discount right now, although he showed last season (2.20 ERA, 227 SO) that he is among the most valuable fantasy starters when things are going well.
Be sure to hide the fact that Cease has dealt with a .380 BABIP during his rough stretch when sending your trade offer.
Players to Trade Away
Spencer Strider (SP, Atlanta Braves)
Strider’s inclusion on this list has nothing to do with his skill level. The right-hander is supremely talented and could be the first pitcher off the board in 2024 drafts. However, there are some Strider teams that have surged ahead of the pack in strikeouts on the strength of the right-hander’s game-changing total (211). Strider has already exceeded his 2022 innings total, which means that the Braves, who have a massive division lead, might limit his frames down the stretch.
Dane Dunning (SP, Texas Rangers)
Those who can trade away Dunning based on his excellent ratios (3.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) should make the move. The right-hander owns a poor 17.3% strikeout rate and all of the popular ERA indicators have him pegged with a mark that is higher than 4.00. Dunning took a predictable step backward (5.06 ERA) during July, but he recently took advantage of a couple of favorable matchups and his season-long numbers still look good enough to trade him away before the deadline.
Esteury Ruiz (OF, Oakland A’s)
Despite spending most of July on the IL, Ruiz still sits second in the Majors in steals. Managers who hold a lead in the swipes standings during the speedster’s absence are best to trade him to a steals-needy team for someone who can help in an area of need. Additionally, steals are easier to find on waivers this year. For example, Ruiz managers can trade him away before adding Willi Castro (23% rostered), who can replace most of the production that comes from his A’s counterpart.
Closers
This paragraph is strictly for those in roto leagues. Closers have the widest gap of value to individual teams in September, as many squads either desperately need saves or have no use for them at all. There have been many instances where I have seen managers bench their top closers during the final few weeks of the season, and in some circumstances, managers have gone so far as to send their saves sources to waivers.
Additionally, finding cheap saves on the waiver wire is easier in September than in any other month of the year, as many teams have stopped actively adding free agents by that time. There are 7.5 weeks remaining in the regular season, and those who can already see a decreasing need for their closers can trade them now for talented players at other positions.
