Expert picks for the 100th Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, a key Kentucky Derby prep race
One of the biggest events on the Kentucky Derby prep race calendar is fast approaching.
The $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes will be run Saturday evening at Keeneland and will be the showcase event of opening weekend for the track’s 2024 Spring Meet.
A field of 11 runners will take part in the key Kentucky Derby prep race, which will award Derby qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers in the race.
Several starters in the Blue Grass Stakes have already amassed Kentucky Derby qualifying points, while others are still looking to get on the board ahead of Derby 150, which will be run May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville with up to 20 horses in the starting gate.
Saturday will also be a historic moment for the Blue Grass Stakes: It will be the 100th edition of the race.
The Blue Grass Stakes (which goes 1 1/8 miles on Keeneland’s main track) has been held at Keeneland since the track’s first Spring Meet in April 1937. The race was inaugurated in 1911 at the Kentucky Association track in Lexington. The Blue Grass Stakes was run at the Kentucky Association track from 1911 through 1914, and again from 1919 to 1926.
Ahead of a historic edition of the Blue Grass Stakes, here’s a look at the history of the event, along with expert picks for which horse will cross the finish line first Saturday.
Has the Blue Grass Stakes historically produced Kentucky Derby winners?
The Blue Grass Stakes is a horse race steeped in history. A large part of that includes producing horses that have gone on to success in the Kentucky Derby.
▪ A total of 19 horses that have run in the Blue Grass Stakes have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. This includes 10 horses who have won both races: Shut Out (1942), Tomy Lee (1959), Chateaugay (1963), Northern Dancer (1964), Lucky Debonair (1965), Forward Pass (1968), Dust Commander (1970), Riva Ridge (1972), Spectacular Bid (1979), and Strike the Gold (1991).
▪ The fastest Blue Grass in history was run by Skip Away, who finished the 1 1/8 miles in a blistering 1:47.29 in 1996.
▪ How often has the favorite won the Blue Grass Stakes?
The favorite has won 39 of the previous 99 editions of the event, equivalent to a 39.4% win rate.
This trend has been even stronger in recent years: The favorite has won four of the last six editions of the Blue Grass Stakes.
▪ The last trainer to win the Blue Grass Stakes in back-to-back years was LeRoy Jolley in 1976 (Honest Pleasure) and 1977 (For the Moment). Todd Pletcher trained the 2023 Blue Grass winner, Tapit Trice, and has one runner in this year’s race.
Pletcher would become the fourth trainer to win the Blue Grass in consecutive years if Be You (post position 2 with 8-1 morning-line odds) finds the winner’s circle.
Odds for the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes
Which of the 11 runners in the field do our experts like to claim all 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points Saturday?
Here’s a list of the entire 11-horse field for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in post-position order, along with trainers, jockeys and morning-line odds.
This is followed by expert picks for which horses you should be looking at to win this year’s edition of the Blue Grass:
▪ 1. Top Conor (Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz), 15-1.
▪ 2. Be You (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 8-1.
▪ 3. Seize the Grey (D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez), 20-1.
▪ 4. Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez), 3-1.
▪ 5. Good Money (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano), 20-1.
▪ 6. Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux), 7-2.
▪ 7. Lat Long (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.), 30-1.
▪ 8. Epic Ride (John Ennis, Adam Beschizza), 20-1.
▪ 9. Mugatu (Jeff Engler, Joe Talamo), 30-1.
▪ 10. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione), 2-1.
▪ 11. Encino (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat), 12-1.
Expert picks for the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes
John Clay (Herald-Leader): Sierra Leone.
“In a competitive field, Sierra Leone is a good bet to give Chad Brown his third Blue Grass Stakes win,” Clay said.
Cameron Drummond (Herald-Leader): Dornoch.
“A winner of three straight races, including a classic showdown against Sierra Leone in the Remsen Stakes in December, Dornoch has the pedigree and the jockey to become a serious Kentucky Derby contender with a win Saturday. Luis Saez will earn his fourth Blue Grass Stakes win, and become the seventh jockey to win the race in consecutive years,” Drummond said.
“The two Brad Cox-trained horses in the field, Just a Touch and Encino, both also deserve looks at longer odds.”
Mathew Graf (Herald-Leader): Dornoch.
“A son of 2018 Blue Grass Stakes champion Good Magic, the front-running Dornoch displayed a veteran’s grit in slamming the door on stretch-run challengers in the Fountain of Youth and the Remsen,” Graf said.
“Sierra Leone’s scintillating closing speed will be coming for Dornoch late from the back on Saturday, and this could be a classic. Four-time Blue Grass winner Todd Pletcher, who won last year with Tapit Trice, could sneak into the money with Be You.”
Dan Issel (UK basketball great, former ESPN Louisville radio host): Just a Touch.
“Will get first run on the two favorites,” Issel said.
Kevin Kilroy (Notes writer and public handicapper at Fair Grounds, freelance horse racing writer): Just a Touch.
“Just a Touch has established top form in this group; if he moves forward in the Blue Grass, he’ll win impressively and be the Kentucky Derby 150 favorite,” Kilroy said.
Louie Rabaut (ESPN Louisville/Horse Racing Happy Hour podcast): Sierra Leone.
“If you’re looking for the class of the field, the morning line does the work here: Sierra Leone and Dornoch dueled in the stretch of a fantastic Remsen in December, and both won on first asking in 2024. Domestic Product, who ran seventh in that race, won the Tampa Bay Derby this year. It’s clearly the best of the late 2023 2-year-old races,” Rabaut said.
“Just a Touch is a classic Brad Cox runner, and a serious contender; if you’re looking for a long shot, Good Money is an improving runner who nearly picked off the aforementioned Tampa Bay Derby. If he gets a nice check after this one, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.”
Saturday
100th Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
What: $1 million Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds on dirt, a major prep race for next month’s Kentucky Derby
Where: Keeneland Race Course
Post time: 5:52 p.m. (10th race of an 11-race card)
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
TV: FanDuel TV
Guide to the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday
Five things to know about the 2024 Keeneland Spring Meet, including Derby, Oaks prep races
11 horses set to run in 100th Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. See the full field with odds.
