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What to expect from Auburn football's Payton Thorne and other SEC transfers | Toppmeyer

blake toppmeyer, usa today network
·4 min read

The rosy outlook for Auburn’s transfer quarterback Payton Thorne says he’s an experienced quarterback who will flourish under coach Hugh Freeze.

The pessimistic outlook centers on Thorne amassing 21 interceptions in two seasons as Michigan State’s starter.

The middlin’ outlook is that Thorne is a known entity who won’t rank among the SEC’s best quarterbacks but offers Auburn an upgrade. In other words, he’ll be about what he was for the Spartans.

That’s usually what happens when a quarterback transfers into the SEC: His production mostly mirrors what he did at his previous school. As Dennis Green might say: They are who we thought they were.

Since NCAA transfer rules changed in 2021 to grant immediate eligibility for all transfers, Power Five starting quarterbacks are flowing toward the SEC for the opportunity to fill a roster need within the nation’s best conference.

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A natural reaction among fans and even within coaching staffs is that a transfer provides the prospect of greener grass, that they’re a burgeoning talent who just needs to connect with a coach possessing the acumen on how to squeeze out more juice.

Occasionally, that’s true.

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Hendon Hooker had hit a ceiling at Virginia Tech before he transferred to Tennessee. His union with Josh Heupel became the perfect symphony of quarterback, coach and scheme, and Hooker finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting last season. Hokies fans must have felt a pang of regret, but Hooker’s ascent probably never would have happened had he not transferred.

Joe Burrow remains the poster child for a transfer quarterback's acceleration. At Ohio State, the Buckeyes buried Burrow on the depth chart. At LSU, Burrow engineered one of the best single seasons in college football history.

The transformational success stories of Hooker and Burrow are more the exception than the rule, though. More often, a transfer stays true to past production.

Outbound Auburn quarterback T.J. Finley comes to mind. At LSU, Finley was a backup-caliber player who masqueraded as a starter. He rebooted at AU in 2021, but his production stagnated.

Thorne’s transfer announcement last week positions him among a handful of quarterbacks with starting experience at brand schools who redirected their careers to the SEC during the offseason:

Like Thorne, Tyler Buchner transferred following his spring game, shifting from Notre Dame to Alabama. He resets Alabama's crowded competition.

In the winter, Spencer Sanders relocated from Oklahoma State to Ole Miss, and Graham Mertz navigated from Wisconsin to Florida. Kentucky's Devin Leary projects as the best of the bench. He starred for North Carolina State two years ago.

Each was a worthwhile acquisition.

Auburn desperately needed a transfer to join Robby Ashford. When you’re four months from the season opener and your incumbent completed 49.2% of his passes, beggars can’t be choosers. At this juncture, Thorne is as good of player as Auburn could have hoped for. The Tigers surpassed 250 yards passing in three of 11 games against FBS opponents last season. Thorne’s career features 13 games of at least 250 yards.

Florida is strapped by one of the SEC’s bleakest quarterback situations. It would be bleaker without Mertz.

Leary boasts a talent level to which Kentucky is not accustomed.

Buchner and Sanders deepened SEC quarterback competitions without costing their new team its top in-house option. That’s a win.

Just don’t expect these transfers to reinvent themselves.

Consider seven transfer quarterbacks from recent seasons:

  • Hooker and LSU’s Jayden Daniels improved, although it would be fairer to say Daniels’ production last season reverted to his standout 2019 freshman season at Arizona State. Daniels regressed the next two years at ASU before Brian Kelly helped him regain his footing.

  • South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Texas A&M’s Max Johnson regressed. That may sound harsh on Rattler. After all, he sparked the Gamecocks' November upsets of Tennessee and Clemson. However, his overall production did not meet the lofty bar he set at the peak of his Oklahoma career. South Carolina’s infirm offensive line had a hand in that. Johnson was better at LSU than he’s been with the Aggies.

  • Finley, JT Daniels and Jaxson Dart saw their production stay about the same after their transfer. Finley is in search of a third school. Daniels was little better at Georgia than he was for Southern Cal, despite the talent around him upgrading, and he surrendered the job to Stetson Bennett. Daniels is now at Rice, his fourth school in a career that will span six seasons. Dart’s passing output in his first season at Ole Miss resembled his production at USC, although Lane Kiffin used him more in the running game than the Trojans did.

To review, that’s two transfers who improved, two who regressed and three who stayed roughly the same.

So, celebrate the arrival of a transfer quarterback. The new face can prove an upgrade compared to existing options. Just temper expectations that he’ll become something he’s already shown he’s not.

Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY NETWORK: Auburn football: What to expect from Payton Thorne and other SEC transfers