Everything we know about Carson Wentz’s future with Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have a big offseason awaiting them and with that comes a massive decision on what to do with quarterback Carson Wentz.

The 29-year-old quarterback was extremely volatile throughout the 2021 season. Even on a per-play basis, we never truly knew which player the Colts were getting. At some points, it could be argued that not even Wentz himself knew what to expect on any given play.

Between his volatile play and the emergence of Jonathan Taylor as the league’s best running back, the Colts didn’t need to lean on Wentz in crucial moments. Some would even argue the Colts shied away from doing so when given the choice.

But the final four weeks of the season were the most indicative of the kind of player the Colts had. Outside of the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 (which was very good), Wentz looked more and more like his 2020 self.

It was all capped off with the ugly and inexcusable performance in a must-win game against the worst team in the NFL during Week 18. All Wentz had to do was lead the offense against the team holding the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft.

What transpired was an epic-level choke job. The 2004 New York Yankees up 3-0 in the ALCS. The Falcons up 28-3 in the Super Bowl. All these teams had to do was not beat themselves. But it happened.

Now, we’re left wondering what the Colts are going to do with their quarterback. They are in the worst-case scenario: losing a first-round pick while also missing out on the playoffs.

So with Wentz’s late-season collapse and future now in question, here’s a look at everything you need to know about the situation entering the 2022 offseason:

Just how bad was Wentz?

When looking at the raw stats for Wentz, the numbers don’t appear that bad. His 27 touchdown passes tied for the second-most of his career while his seven interceptions tied a career-low. Even his 62.4% completion rate was up five whole percentage points from 2020 and was tied for the third-highest mark of his career.

So why are we so down on Wentz?

Looking at raw stats can get you in the ballpark we need a deeper dive to truly understand what kind of season Wentz had. And when we do that, we find out that Wentz’s 2021 season was comparable to 2019 Jacoby Brissett. Woof.

According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric which “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.”

Wentz’s DVOA in 2021 was 16th in the NFL at +1.8%. So just above league-average. For comparison, Brissett’s 2019 season was also 16th in NFL in DVOA but was higher at +2.6%.

Not a great look for a team that sent over a first and a third-round pick. The Colts essentially traded for brand-name Jacoby Brissett.

Over his final eight games, Wentz averaged just 170.6 passing yards per game. He threw more than 250 passing yards in a game just once over that span. Now, some of that was due to Jonathan Taylor demolishing defenses. But it was also on Wentz being an erratic passer.

Over his final four games, Wentz completed just 58.3% of his passes for 654 yards and five touchdowns to go along with an 86.1 passer rating.

Frank Reich's non-committment

One of the bigger reasons why we are beginning to believe the Colts could move on from Wentz this offseason was the lack of commitment Reich made when discussing his quarterback situation in 2022.

When Reich typically speaks of Wentz, it comes with a lot of support and optimism. During his year-end press conference on Monday, it was anything but that. Though it’s hard to take it one way or another, Reich was non-committal when it came to Wentz in 2022.

“As far as Carson (Wentz), again I mentioned this the other day just with individuals, we loved the team we had this year. We knew everyone we brought in this year we expected to play winning football. Next year’s roster will be next year’s roster,” Reich told reporters Monday. “I’m not going to evaluate or talk about any – I don’t want to just open it up with one player and then start talking about all of them.”

Sure that doesn’t sound too bad. It doesn’t sound all that indicative of a player that’s on his way out.

But there is something to be said about the fact that Reich gave this quote the day after he met with owner Jim Irsay, who called a meeting just hours after the shocking loss to the Jaguars.

Salary-cap implications of cutting or trading Wentz

With the potential that Wentz could be gone this offseason, it’s time to take a look at what that means in terms of roster and salary-cap implications. Trading Wentz would be the ideal option but there is also a non-zero chance he is outright released—though that is highly unlikely.

Wentz is still under contract through the 2024 season but there is an out for the Colts after 2022 if they wanted to be totally clear of acquiring dead money. After 2022, all of Wentz’s guaranteed money goes away.

However, there is still reason to believe the Colts part ways with Wentz this offseason even with some dead money on the hook.

Wentz’s 2022 salary has a total cap hit of $28.3 million. It comes in the form of $22 million in base salary, $15 million of which is already guaranteed. There is no way around that. But Wentz is also due a $6.3 million roster bonus that kicks in the third day of the new league year, which is March 18.

Here’s a breakdown of the remaining contract from Over The Cap:

(Courtesy of Over The Cap)

Essentially, the Colts can part ways with Wentz either via trade or release. They will eat $15 million in dead money but they will also save up to $13.3 million if Wentz is gone before the roster bonus kicks in.

Considering the fact that they are projected to have over $50 million in salary-cap space this offseason, they will still be in a fine standing going into free agency.

Options to replace Wentz

This is where the question becomes even bigger. If we are talking about getting rid of Wentz, who played at a league-average level with extreme volatility, what kind of options are there to replace him with?

Unfortunately, the options aren’t appealing in the slightest.

Unrealistic optimism says we could hope the Colts make a trade for Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Sure, it may be possible in an alternate reality but the Colts don’t have the means to contact Loki in hopes of creating a new timeline…probably.

So now we have to look at the middling options that could be available. Some of the trade candidates include Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo, both of which finished fifth and eighth in DVOA, respectively. Those options are probably safer than Wentz but would still require a deal to get done.

Then the free agent options are just as ghastly. Are we sure that Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton or Nick Foles are better options than Wentz? If anything, it seems like a lateral move at best.

This all goes without saying that the Colts likely aren’t privy to the notion of letting Sam Ehlinger start the season unless they truly are embracing a tank for 2023 (they aren’t).

Could Jim Irsay intervene?

So while getting rid of Wentz may be feasible even if the Colts have to eat some money, the options aren’t all that appealing. Even so, there is still a chance that Irsay simply does not want the volatility at the position.

Having the chance to get into the playoffs twice when all they needed to do was win has left an extremely sour taste in Irsay’s mouth. So much so that he has vowed to make changes this offseason.

Seeing as Frank Reich and Chris Ballard still have their jobs, we have to assume he means changes at the quarterback position or changes in the philosophy of the front office.

Regardless, it’s clear that Irsay wants some type of change within the organization.

Overall impressions

There was a lot to unpack there and it’s mostly because we have no idea what the Colts are going to do. We can project and make educated guesses. But the fact remains that we still have an entire offseason to go through.

Wentz was an issue for the Colts in 2021. He wasn’t the only reason they missed the playoffs and he shouldn’t be the only taking blame. Chris Ballard, Frank Reich, the lack of pass rush, COVID-19 issues are among the other people and aspects that are well-deserving of blame.

But Wentz’s erratic play kept the Colts from the playoffs. Had he simply played at the league-average level without the volatile dips in play, the Colts probably enter the playoffs and we aren’t really having this discussion.

However, Wentz shrunk when the big moments arrived over the final month of the season. Teams forced Wentz to beat them, and he couldn’t do it.

I wish I had an easy prediction to make when it comes to this situation. Change does need to be made but without a clear plan of action and without a true upgrade at the position, the Colts may be stuck with Wentz for one more season.

We know it’s possible that the Colts can survive even out-right releasing the 29-year-old. We just don’t know if they believe it’s worth it at this time.

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