ESPN ranks Oregon among most likely teams to make College Football Playoff in 2023
The Oregon Ducks have been able to take care of business throughout their non-conference schedule thus far in 2023. Of course, the level of competition has not been elite — Texas Tech will likely be viewed as a solid win at the end of the year, but neither Hawaii nor Portland State will be seen as great victories. Regardless of who they’ve played, it’s been clear that the Ducks are starting to garner some respect nationally with the commencement of the Pac-12 conference schedule beginning this week.
With that conference play getting underway, we wanted to take a second and look at things from a national point of view. While we often focus on the Pac-12 and judge things based on rankings out west, today we want to look at some national rankings, particularly where the top teams stand in terms of the likelihood that they get into the College Football Playoff at the end of the year.
Using ESPN’s Football Power Index, something that we do each week of the season, we can see which schools in the nation are garnering the most respect right now when it comes to season-long outlooks.
While you might expect these odds to directly reflect the top 25 rankings, it actually looks quite a bit different. ESPN takes into account the path to the conference title games, and the likelihood that a team can be one of the top four at the end of the year, rather than just giving the best teams the best odds.
Here’s where the Ducks rank among the top teams in the nation when it comes to CFP probability.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Top-25 Ranking: 4th
College Football Playoff Probability: 57.7%
National Championship Game Probability: 36.2%
National Champion Probability: 21.3%
Oklahoma Sooners
Top-25 Ranking: 16th
College Football Playoff Probability: 50.5%
National Championship Game Probability: 29.3%
National Champion Probability: 16.1%
Georgia Bulldogs
Top-25 Ranking: 1st
College Football Playoff Probability: 41.3%
National Championship Game Probability: 21.6%
National Champion Probability: 11.4%
Texas Longhorns
Top-25 Ranking: 6th
College Football Playoff Probability: 34.3%
National Championship Game Probability: 16.9%
National Champion Probability: 8.2%
USC Trojans
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 5th
College Football Playoff Probability: 31.8%
National Championship Game Probability: 16.9%
National Champion Probability: 8.1%
Florida State Seminoles
Top-25 Ranking: 3rd
College Football Playoff Probability: 26.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 11.4%
National Champion Probability: 5.1%
Penn State Nittany Lions
Top-25 Ranking: 7th
College Football Playoff Probability: 26.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 12.4%
National Champion Probability: 6.2%
Oregon Ducks
Top-25 Ranking: 11th
College Football Playoff Probability: 24.3%
National Championship Game Probability: 10.9%
National Champion Probability: 4.8%
Washington Huskies
Top-25 Ranking: 8th
College Football Playoff Probability: 18.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 7.7%
National Champion Probability: 2.9%
Alabama Crimson Tide
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman-USA TODAY NETWORK
Top-25 Ranking: 12th
College Football Playoff Probability: 14.6%
National Championship Game Probability: 7.6%
National Champion Probability: 3.9%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 9th
College Football Playoff Probability: 13.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 5.5%
National Champion Probability: 2.5%
Ole Miss Rebels
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 16th
College Football Playoff Probability: 11.5%
National Championship Game Probability: 5.0%
National Champion Probability: 2.4%
LSU Tigers
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 13th
College Football Playoff Probability: 9.8%
National Championship Game Probability: 5.1%
National Champion Probability: 2.4%
Michigan Wolverines
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 2nd
College Football Playoff Probability: 8.4%
National Championship Game Probability: 3.2%
National Champion Probability: 1.2%
Miami Hurricanes
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 21st
College Football Playoff Probability: 8.1%
National Championship Game Probability: 2.8%
National Champion Probability: 1.0%
Syracuse Orange
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: N/A
College Football Playoff Probability: 6.5%
National Championship Game Probability: 2.0%
National Champion Probability: 0.7%
Utah Utes
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 10th
College Football Playoff Probability: 2.9%
National Championship Game Probability: 1.0%
National Champion Probability: 0.4%
Oregon State Beavers
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 15th
College Football Playoff Probability: 2.6%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.7%
National Champion Probability: 0.2%
North Carolina Tar Heels
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 17th
College Football Playoff Probability: 2.2%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.6%
National Champion Probability: 0.2%
UCF Knights
Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: N/A
College Football Playoff Probability: 2.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.7%
National Champion Probability: 0.3%
UCLA Bruins
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 25th
College Football Playoff Probability: 1.3%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.4%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Duke Blue Devils
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: 18th
College Football Playoff Probability: 1.1%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.3%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Texas A&M Aggies
Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
Top-25 Ranking: N/A
College Football Playoff Probability: 1.1%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.4%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Louisville Cardinals
Top-25 Ranking: N/A
College Football Playoff Probability: 1.0%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.3%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Clemson Tigers
Top-25 Ranking: 23rd
College Football Playoff Probability: 0.9%
National Championship Game Probability: 0.3%
National Champion Probability: 0.1%
