ESPN predicts each 2023 Ohio State football game using its FPI matchup predictor
It’s clearly not an exact science, but if you’ve followed us at all, you know we like to check in from time to time during the season to see how Ohio State football’s performance on the field affects ESPN’s matchup predictor.
And while we’ll continue to do that, there’s a point in time in which ESPN first drops the widgets in the machine during the preseason to give us a first look at what OSU’s season projects to be.
That moment has come.
ESPN has used its Football Power Index to predict the percentage chances of teams winning each game during the 2023 season, and we are particularly interested in the schedule that’s colored scarlet and gray.
The Buckeyes will be playing 12 regular season games this fall — and we of course hope there are more — but only half of those are at home this year. OSU also has a rather tough schedule all while ushering in a new starting quarterback.
Does the ESPN computer think Ohio State will run the table? Which games are expected to be close, and what about the contest against Michigan? Can Penn State get over the hump? Here’s a look at ESPN’s game-by-game prediction on the probability of OSU winning each game in 2023, and a running record if the results hold.
Sept. 3 at Indiana
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 78-12-5
Projected running record: 1-0
Sept. 9 vs. Youngstown State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.0%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 2-0
Sept. 16 vs. Western Kentucky
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 99.0%
All-Time Series: No previous matchups
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 23 at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Indiana)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.3%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 5-2
Projected running record: 4-0
Oct. 7 vs. Maryland
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.5%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Oct. 14 at Purdue
Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.6%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 40-15-2
Projected running record: 6-0
Oct. 21 vs. Penn State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.4%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 23-14
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 28 at Wisconsin
Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.1%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4 at Rutgers
SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.8%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15
Projected running record: 10-0
Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.4%
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 25 at Michigan
Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 71.4%
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6
Projected running record: 12-0
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