How ESPN’s FPI predicts Penn State’s remaining schedule, starting with Minnesota
Penn State is in search of a big rebound win this weekend when they host Minnesota for this year’s whiteout game in Beaver Stadium. The primetime game lost a little bit of its luster last weekend when Penn State got blown out on the road at Michigan and Minnesota suffered its second loss of the year, but the importance of a win this week is still pretty high for both schools. Penn State is a slight favorite in the game, but what does ESPN’s Football Power Index middle have to say about it?
Penn State should still be favored in all but one game remaining this season, and the end of the season is looking very favorable. Here is a look at how the rest of Penn State’s season could be expected to play out according to the updated figures from ESPN’s FPI ratings and outlook.
Oct. 22 vs. Minnesota
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 62.5%
FPI outlook: Win
Penn State’s FPI odds to win this game took a slight step down compared to a week ago, but the ESPN numbers still favor the Nittany Lions this weekend against Minnesota. Minnesota faces some uncertainty with the availability of Tanner Morgan after leaving last week’s game at Illinois with a head injury, and Penn State is hoping for a cleaner offensive approach after two rough outings. The defense also will look to make a bit of a statement after getting gashed by Michigan last week.
Oct. 29 vs. Ohio State
Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 16.9%
FPI outlook: Loss
This one should come as no surprise with Penn State getting a small chance to win its home game against Ohio State in two weeks. And as to be expected, Penn State saw its chance to win take a hit as well by dipping three points in the FPI figures. Penn State will host the Buckeyes for the Big Noon Kickoff game on FOX, and noon games have a history of losing some of the big game electricity a later game has served up for this matchup over the years. Also, Ohio State is just a better team.
Nov. 5 at Indiana
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 78.8%
FPI outlook: Win
Penn State should be cautious about a road trip to Bloomington a week after facing Ohio State, but the ESPN math suggests the Nittany Lions are in a very favorable spot in early November. Indiana has some weapons in the passing game that could do some damage against the Penn State defense though.
Nov. 12 vs. Maryland
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 63.6%
FPI outlook: Win
Like most games, Penn State’s win probability has dipped against Maryland as well while still pegging them as the favorite. But this one could be one to watch depending on the status of Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, who will be a game-time decision this weekend.
Nov. 19 vs. Rutgers
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 84.9%
FPI outlook: Win
The game most likely to be won by Penn State the rest of the way remains its road game at Rutgers in the next-to-last game of the regular season. Penn State is an overwhelming favorite to continue their winning ways against the Scarlet Knights, although even this game was not able to avoid taking a slight drop in win probability from a week ago. Penn State’s FPI prediction decreased 1.6 points from a week ago.
Nov. 26 vs. Michigan State
Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 75.4%
FPI outlook: Win
Penn State should be in line to wrap up the season on a winning note with a supposedly favorable matchup against Michigan State to bring the regular season to a close. The Spartans have had their struggles this season and this year has come nowhere close to capturing the same magic it experienced last season. No matter what the numbers say, however, this is rarely an easy game for Penn State.
