ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks the Big 12 ahead of the 2023 season
The 2023 college football season is just weeks away from kickoff. Teams are going full speed ahead in their preparations for the season with the beginning of fall camp.
As realignment took over much of the news cycle for the last several weeks, this season takes on a whole different complexion. It’s the final year in the Big 12 for Oklahoma and Texas.
USC, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA are playing their final seasons in the Pac-12 before heading to the Big Ten next year. Also leaving the Pac-12, but for the Big 12, are Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.
The future of the Pac-12 is in doubt, and the Big 12 is taking on a whole different life. While everyone looks ahead, the 2023 season promises to be an entertaining one, especially in the Big 12. While there is a prohibitive favorite in the league, the conference is wide open.
Here’s a look at how ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks the teams heading into 2023.
Texas Longhorns
ESPN Football Power Index: 21.9
ESPN FPI National Rank: 5
Projected Win-Loss: 10.1-2.6
Chance to Win the Big 12: 54.4%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 34.2%
Could this be the season the Texas Longhorns finally fulfill the “Texas is back” prophecy? For all the hype they’ve received, they still have questions to answer. Namely, can Quinn Ewers take a step and become the elite passer he’s expected to be?
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Oklahoma Sooners
ESPN Football Power Index: 16.9
ESPN FPI National Rank: 11
Projected Win-Loss: 9.7-2.8
Chance to Win the Big 12: 24.5%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 10.7%
The Oklahoma Sooners have the schedule to return to contention this year but have a lot to prove after a 6-7 season. If they can be more efficient on money downs than they were a year ago, they’ll be back to double-digit wins this season.
TCU Horned Frogs
ESPN Football Power Index: 13
ESPN FPI National Rank: 17
Projected Win-Loss: 8.1-4.1
Chance to Win the Big 12: 5.7%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.2%
It was a magical season a year ago, but if there were a team at the top that could experience a fall similar to the Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State experienced from 2021 to 2022, it’s TCU. It’s not because the coaches aren’t good, it’s because they lost arguably their most valuable players from last year’s College Football Playoff National Championship game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
ESPN Football Power Index: 10.8
ESPN FPI National Rank: 22
Projected Win-Loss: 7.5-4.6
Chance to Win the Big 12: 3.8%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.5%
Texas Tech took a step in the right direction in Joey McGuire’s first season as a college head coach. There’s a palpable buzz about the Red Raiders heading into year two.
Baylor Bears
ESPN Football Power Index: 10.7
ESPN FPI National Rank: 23
Projected Win-Loss: 7.4-4.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 3.2%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.2%
After winning the Big 12 in 2021, the Bears were a bit of a disappointment in 2022. The defense wasn’t what’s expected from a Dave Aranda defense and the offense wasn’t consistent.
UCF Knights
ESPN Football Power Index: 10
ESPN FPI National Rank: 26
Projected Win-Loss: 7.7-4.4
Chance to Win the Big 12: 2.5%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.2%
There are high expectations for the UCF Knights entering the Big 12. They’ve got an experienced head coach in Gus Malzahn and an experienced quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee. This is the opportunity the Knights have been waiting for. Can they capitalize?
Kansas State Wildcats
ESPN Football Power Index: 9.8
ESPN FPI National Rank: 27
Projected Win-Loss: 7.4-4.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 2.9%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.1%
We’re higher on Kansas State over here. Sure, they suffered some losses, but what school doesn’t? They return two of their most important pieces from a year ago in Will Howard and Cooper Beebe.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
ESPN Football Power Index: 6.9
ESPN FPI National Rank: 38
Projected Win-Loss: 7.5-4.6
Chance to Win the Big 12: 2.%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Alan Bowman returns to the Big 12 after a couple of years as a backup for the Michigan Wolverines. Mike Gundy is hoping that experience with Jim Harbaugh will help Bowman take a step and lead the Cowboys. Bowman’s problem has never been talent or toughness. He’s struggled to stay healthy.
Iowa State Cyclones
ESPN Football Power Index: 5.6
ESPN FPI National Rank: 43
Projected Win-Loss: 5.8-6.2
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.3%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
With Hunter Dekkers sitting out fall camp amid gambling allegations, the Iowa State Cyclones my not reach the projected win total from the ESPN FPI. The defense will be there, but they need the offense to take a significant step if Iowa State wants to avoid the basement of the Big 12.
Cincinnati Bearcats
ESPN Football Power Index: 4.9
ESPN FPI National Rank: 48
Projected Win-Loss: 6.3-5.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.6%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
If the Bearcats are going to make some noise in 2023, it’ll be because of their defense and the emergence of quarterback Emory Jones. If he can play mistake-free football, Cincinnati will be in a lot of close games in 2023.
Houston Cougars
ESPN Football Power Index: 2.5
ESPN FPI National Rank: 54
Projected Win-Loss: 5.2-6.8
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.1%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Guess who’s back? Back again? Holgy’s back! Tell a friend!
Dana Holgorsen’s return to the Big 12 will bring an explosive offense to an already explosive league. The addition of former Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith to run the show gives them a boost with his toughness and athleticism.
West Virginia Mountaineers
ESPN Football Power Index: 1.4
ESPN FPI National Rank: 57
Projected Win-Loss: 4.3-7.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.0%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
West Virginia was an odd team last year. One would have thought they’d improve with the addition of former five-star quarterback J.T. Daniels. But the offense struggled until Garrett Greene gave it life. The Mountaineers knocked off Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but Neal Brown heads into 2023 with the hottest seat in the conference.
BYU Cougars
ESPN Football Power Index: 1
ESPN FPI National Rank: 60
Projected Win-Loss: 4.9-7.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.0%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Toughness will be in abundance for the BYU Cougars under Kalani Sitake. But talent is the question. They’re starting lineup can play with anyone in the Big 12, but like Oklahoma suffered a year ago, depth may be a problem in Provo in 2023.
Kansas Jayhawks
ESPN Football Power Index: -1.2
ESPN FPI National Rank: 68
Projected Win-Loss: 4.1-7.9
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.0%
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
There’s an expectation that Kansas will be a team that contends for a bowl in 2023, but still uncertainty about how high they can climb in the Big 12 standings. Jalon Daniels gives them a chance, but unless there’s significant improvement on defense, it’ll be tough for the Jayhawks to make the jump.
