Erik ten Hag and Mikel Arteta’s first two years may look similar, but they are not alike
Sometimes the statistics for a manager approaching his second anniversary in charge of one of the Premier League’s biggest clubs are so damning, you cannot imagine how they can survive.
Losing 24 of your first 73 Premier League games is a recipe for the sack for a side targeting regular Champions League qualification, even if a major trophy has been collected along the way.
When you seem just as far away from the top after two years as you were when being appointed, the supporters struggle to find a positive and are entitled to expect immediate change.
Fortunately for Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta, this poor record which he endured between December 2019 and December 2021 is proof that a difficult start to a reign can be overcome.
Manchester United’s Erik Ten Hag may analyse his next opponent’s first two years at the Emirates and see hope. He could certainly use it as evidence to Sir Jim Ratcliffe that demands for his dismissal are premature.
It will shock many that across the same number of Premier League games, the Dutchman’s record is slightly better than that of Arteta.
Ten Hag has won five more of his first 73 Premier League games. He has lost two fewer. United have scored five more goals, but, significantly, conceded 16 more. Where Arteta won the FA Cup and Community Shield, Ten Hag lifted the League Cup and may yet add the FA Cup.
Despite all that, Arteta’s Arsenal performance levels never sunk as consistently low as those of Ten Hag’s Manchester United.
There were certainly some bad moments as Arteta began to execute his vision. On Arteta’s first anniversary as Arsenal manager, his team dropped to 15th in the Premier League after defeat to Everton.
His second full season started with consecutive defeats to Brentford, Chelsea and a particularly harrowing 5-0 loss at Manchester City, which prompted Pep Guardiola to defend his former assistant and call for patience.
“I know the job he can do,” Guardiola said. Critics thought this was just Guardiola helping out his mate rather than predicting they would be going head-to-head in the last two weeks of the title race three years later.
When comparing the respective records of Arteta and Ten Hag to this point of their reign, I have been asking myself what the real difference is.
The first point to make is the context under which both were appointed.
Arteta had never managed before taking over at Arsenal. Stan Kroenke took a risk by hiring a 37-year-old and in doing so committed the club to a long-term vision. Arteta was his man, and there is no point headhunting such a young coach and getting rid after the first two years of extensive rebuilding.
Arteta inherited a team which had failed to qualify for the Champions League for three years and needed major reconstruction. High earners like Mesut Őzil, David Luiz and Alexandre Lacazette needed offloading, as did expensive mistakes like Nicolas Pépé.
Only two of those selected in Arteta’s first game against Bournemouth in December 2019 are still at the club (Bukayo Saka and Reiss Nelson), most gone after his second full season.
Arteta’s best deals in his first two summers were forward thinking. Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey and Gabriel have all become key players, while Saka and Gabriel Martinelli quickly became symbols of hope. After three transfer windows, Arteta had spent just over £82m. Bigger deals were to come once the deadwood was out. What impressed me most in those first two years was the 2020 FA Cup win, when Manchester City and Chelsea were beaten by counter-attacking football using the pace of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arteta demonstrating his tactical flexibility. He realised he did not have the players for a possession or high-pressing game. When the difficult moments came, Arteta had credit in the bank as a coach who had already shown he knew how to influence games.
He also had a knack of quickly reversing bad spells with an uplifting result to ease the pressure.
Although the league form was breaking the wrong records, the cups and Europe were a salvation. In all competitions, Arteta actually won more of his first 100 fixtures than Arsène Wenger.
That meant amid the setbacks there was always a sense of an ultimate destination. When Arsenal enjoyed good results and performances, you could see the fruits of the work on the training ground. Arsenal took steps back to move forward.
Manchester United, by contrast, made a move forward last year, but have taken several steps back since.
Ten Hag took over at United with a big reputation because of his work at Ajax, especially when he led them to the Champions League semi-final. He was not presented as an emerging coach but at 52 was supposed to be a ready-made one who would impose a clear vision. United had qualified for the Champions League in two of the three seasons preceding Ten Hag’s appointment and there was a belief talented players needed superior coaching and a change of culture at the training ground.
Like Arteta, Ten Hag had no choice but to use the personnel available to be more pragmatic in his first season. Over his first three transfer windows, United spent just over £380 million and nothing has changed as they have bought more deadwood than they have sold. Of Ten Hag’s first Premier League line-up (defeat by Brighton in August, 2022), seven would probably still make the first choice XI. Only two have left the club, and another, Jadon Sancho, is about to play the Champions League final on loan at Borussia Dortmund.
Unlike Arteta’s transfer picks, Ten Hag’s decisions backfired terribly, especially the signings of Antony and Casimero.
United have been regularly outclassed by rivals, losing 6-3 against Manchester City and 7-0 to Liverpool, while struggling against mid-table Premier League teams too.
Even when United have enjoyed good results under Ten Hag, I am genuinely struggling trying to recall any exceptionally good performances with a perceptively proactive system of play. Two years on, they are not set up like a top team. Ten Hag says the injuries to Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martínez have prevented them playing from the back, but the style of a club of United’s stature should not depend on the fitness of two defenders. They still play on the counter-attack, while using lots of direct high balls from back to front.
None of Arteta’s most disappointing losses were remotely comparable to the 4-0 defeat by Crystal Palace on Monday night.
Worryingly for Ten Hag, the biggest difference is he is not the owner’s appointment. The Arsenal board staked their reputation on Arteta coming good. Logic suggests Ratcliffe will be more inclined to stand or fall based on his managerial pick.
A month before Arteta’s second anniversary as Arsenal manager, I wrote this:
“It already looks like a different Arsenal to a year ago. Now, the worst might be over and they may be emerging towards the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Can anyone seriously argue the same about Ten Hag’s Manchester United?
