Ed DeRosa's picks for Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs: Horses to bet on for each race

The start of Kentucky Derby weekend means it’s Kentucky Oaks Day. Whatever kind of horseplayer you are, and no matter your budget, there will absolutely be opportunity for you to make a good score over the next 27 races. Whether it’s inflated show payoffs because of the full fields and casual money, or the chance at a life-changing score, it’s all on the table this weekend at Churchill Downs.

This is a great 13-race card headlined by the Kentucky Oaks. It also includes the return of champion Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Idiomatic in the La Troienne (Race 5) and my Kentucky Derby pick last year (Tapit Trice) in the Alysheba (Race 7).

Let’s make some money!

Race 1: 4-10-6

Turfway shippers have been on fire this spring in the commonwealth. Maybe Oaks Day will be no different with No. 4 Sundance Feature on dirt beneath the TwinSpires after a solid synthetic debut. No. 10 Bellofthebluegrass was way wide in the slop last time and should improve here.

Race 2 picks: 11-7-6

The full-field 1 1/16-mile races at Churchill can be tricky. Through April 29, the far outside post is 0-for-56 in these settings. But the not-so-far-outside posts actually do rather well, so no concern on No. 9 Sidamara, who kept up with a fast pace when breaking her debut last out. There was nothing wrong with that debut either, as she chased the fast Brad Cox-trained Dazzling Move, last seen finishing second in a stakes on opening night.

Race 3 picks: 8-5-13

Could this be Bill Mott’s day at the races? We picked him in the preceding race, he has one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks (who I don’t love) and he looks formidable here with No. 8 Arthur’s Ride, a speedball whose only losses came to eventual Kentucky Derby starters Disarm and Instant Coffee. Interesting move on No. 5 going turf to dirt, but I like the cutback to a one turn mile for the third race off a layoff.

Race 4 picks: 3-6-11

No. 3 Elysian Field got a good comeback race, finishing second to next-out winner Ro Town, going a mile at Gulfstream. Now the King’s Plate runner-up stretches out to nine furlongs, which she has won at on synthetic. Also like that Javier Castellano is back aboard. No. 6 Bravo Kitten returned on synthetic and should improve returning to turf for her second start this season.

Race 5 (La Troienne Stakes) picks: 6-2-4

What a battle of two heavyweights here as last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner and 3-year-old filly champion Pretty Mischievous lines up against the Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner and older female champion Idiomatic. It is the first start of their 4- and 5-year-old seasons, respectively, and I have to take a shot against them both because that kind of brand recognition also attracts wagering dollars. No. 6 Xigera finished her 3-year-old season with three consecutive stakes victories, looking every bit as good as the two favorites in doing so. A win is probably too tall an order for No. 2 Taxed, but she could make some noise underneath at big odds.

Race 6 (Unbridled Sidney Stakes) picks: 2-8-5

A Louisiana-bred on Kentucky Oaks Day? Why not?! We’re picking an Ohio-bred in a stakes on Derby Day (see Saturday’s picks). No. 2 Ova Charged is 9-for-12 on dirt and somehow might be better on turf where she has won her last two stakes by a combined 17 ¼ lengths. She puts a four-race win streak on the line against the toughest field she’s faced in her career, but she is just better than these.

Race 7 picks (Alysheba) : 6-3-7

Nice bunch of older males, and have to think at least a few of these have designs on a Breeders’ Cup race come year’s end. No. 3 First Mission is a worthy favorite having finished second in the Clark here last year and returning to win the Essex a few weeks ago. But I think he will be overbet, so we’ll take a shot with No. 6 Tumbarumba, who is 2-for-3 at Churchill and I expect could get a good run behind speedball Pipeline. No. 7 Tapit Trice was my Derby pick last year.

Race 8 picks (Modesty Stakes): 6-4-10

No. 6 Surprisingly has earned a lot of checks lately but not pictures. She brings a seven-race losing streak into this one. Trainer Todd Pletcher getting Flavien Prat and cutting Repole Stable’s Mastery mare back in distance, though, could be the key to unlocking winner’s circle access. No. 4 Heavenly Sound has not raced since November, but if she’s fresh and the turf course is playing kindly to speed, she is a front end threat.

Race 9 (Eight Belles Stakes) picks: 7-9-1

That was an awesome victory on the cutback for Denim and Pearls last out. She is undefeated in three starts in one-turn races and 0-for-2 otherwise, and it’s not like those were bad, as they were a pair of runner-up performances in stakes. There is speed on the inside and outside so only very minor concern is if jockey Flavien Prat gets stuck behind, but that’s me just already looking for excuses. She’s the horse to beat.

Race 10 (Edgewood Stakes) picks: 4-9-6

There is enough speed in here for me to give No. 4 Buchu the edge, as she’ll need every bit of her kick to collar a good group of 3-year-old fillies on the turf. She was electric in the Appalachian last out, and I’m encouraged that she actually made the front mid stretch versus needing to take the lead on the wire.

Race 11 (Longines Kentucky Oaks) picks: 11-3-8

I am still stunned that No. 11 Ways and Means lost the Guflstream Park Oaks, but that loss is good news for bettors. It helps her price a little bit, as she’d undoubtedly be bet more off a win — maybe even favored. This is an extremely talented filly, and I guess there’s reason to be concerned she’s looked a winner in each of her last starts and lost at odds on. But at better than 4-to-1 here I have to just go with who I think is best since the price is right. No. 3 Where’s My Ring will be no better than sixth choice and can sneak into the gimmicks.

Race 12 picks: 3-8-11

No. 3 Harbor Springs ran into all sorts of trouble last out at Keeneland and managed second behind monster Denim and Pearls (my pick in the Eight Belles). Big-time class relief here to get a picture taken on Oaks Day?

Race 13 picks: 8-2-12

Not a lot of speed in here, so while I think No. 2 Chilled might be more talented overall, think things conspire better for No. 8 Princess Madison stretching out to a one-turn mile. She’ll be prominently early, but if things fall apart then Chilled can thrill.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Ed DeRosa expert picks for Kentucky Oaks 2024 races at Churchill Downs