Early season fantasy baseball strategy

We're just a day away from MLB Opening Day. The excitement is high and we'll finally welcome regular baseball back into our everyday lives. Of course, with that comes thousands of new data points and exploits to react to and the beginning of the six-month grind of managing a fantasy baseball team.

For many of us, the shift from draft prep to in-season management can be daunting, and they are without a doubt two separate skill sets. The purpose of this article is to try and help us make the cognitive shift together. We'll walk through how to transition from "Draft Prep Brain" to "Waiver Wire Brain" and discuss which information from the early weeks of the MLB season is useful for us to use in our decision-making and which information is noise. Being able to differentiate between the two can help us scoop up those waiver wire gems that emerge every season.

For example, last season, Nico Hoerner seemed to come out of nowhere in the first month, hitting .323/.361/.427 with two home runs, 22 runs scored, 17 RBI, and 10 steals in 28 games. People who were quick to see what was happening, particularly in the stolen base landscape, and add Hoerner early reaped the rewards of an impressive season that likely swung many stolen base categories.

So how can we best put ourselves in the position to make the right moves in the first weeks of the fantasy baseball season?

Yearn to Churn

To start with, we have to approach the first few weeks with a willingness to churn the bottom spots of our roster. I know we spent months prepping for our drafts and probably love how our team looks, but the last few hitting and pitching spots should always be designed to allow you to play the wire. Now, that doesn't mean you HAVE to turn over the bottom of your roster every waiver period, but it does mean you have to be open to it. Take some chances with those final bench spots and if it doesn't work out, take another chance.

That means, just because you spent $5 on a player one week, it doesn't mean you need to hold him for two or three weeks after that. It's not your real money. If you take a gamble on a hitter who had a great first week, and he looks awful in the next week, you can feel free to move on. Most of the guys on the waiver wire were players we had concerns about going into the draft (hence why they're on waivers), so one good week doesn't mean those concerns are gone. Throw him on the bench and see if he's turned a corner, but if it turns out to be a mirage, don't hold onto him just because you feel like you haven't given him enough of a chance. I promise his feelings won't be hurt.

Treat those final roster spots as speed dating. Maybe you find somebody you love, but 90% of the people who sit across from you will be gone in a short while.

Be Willing to Kill Your Darlings

This is a bit of a continuation of the point above. There's a saying in fiction writing that you have to be willing to "kill your darlings," which means that you have to be willing to eliminate any part of your writing (characters, scenes, sentences etc.) that, while you might love them, don't serve your story. The same goes for your fantasy baseball team. If a player doesn't serve your story or fit your team then don't be afraid to say goodbye.

In each of our drafts, we had a point where the confidence level in our picks dropped. That's not to say we didn't like our picks, but there's always a natural cut-off mark in our draft where we went from actively going out and getting players we think are in for big seasons to making calculated decisions about the best available option of players we like but also know have flaws. That cutoff point could be Round 12 in one of your drafts or Round 19 in another. It depends on the draft, but that point exists and we need to acknowledge it as the season begins because that point is central to our FAAB decisions.

The players above the line, who we loved and actively sought out based on our draft research, are players who we should afford a longer leash to if they struggle to start the year. If you loved Jordan Walker all off-season and planned to take him in every draft possible then it doesn't matter if he struggles to start the year; you shouldn't drop him for another hitter who's off to a hot start. However, if you only drafted Will Benson because of the TJ Friedl injury and you're not sure about Benson's plate discipline, then you can be quicker to pull the trigger if he's not benefiting your team in the early going.

Be Greedy, not Practical

If you do decide to move on from a player, don't put category value over true talent just yet. Yes, we likely know which categories we're weakest in when we leave the draft, and if we can find a talented player on the waiver wire who also fits one of those categories, then we should certainly be aggressive in our bidding. However, six months is a long time, and category value will shift as the months go by. You don't want to pass up a clearly better player because his skills are not EXACTLY what your team needs. If Colton Cowser takes a starting role from Austin Hays in the first weeks of the season, then it doesn't matter if you need power or not; we should be looking to add the players with the most staying power and potential for season-long value because we never know how injuries will shake out or what our team needs will be in just a few weeks.

Be a Casting Director: Role is Paramount

Perhaps the most important thing to keep track of in the season's first few weeks is a player's role. That means where he hits in the lineup, whether or not he starts versus both righties and lefties, or which inning a reliever is used in. It may take a while for skills to settle but managers tell us their opinion on players almost immediately and those can have MAJOR ramifications on a player's value.

For example, if you anticipated that Zach Neto would bat ninth for the Angels, but he's hitting in the leadoff spot by the second week, that could be a huge boost to his counting stats and his fantasy value. That's an immediate shift in his projected value that's not tied to needing stats to stabilize. On the other hand, if Esteury Ruiz comes off the bench in three of the first four games, that also tells us that his lineup spot is no longer secure and, thus, his steals are no longer secure, which means his value takes a massive hit.

A player's role is information we can move on almost immediately, so keep an eye on the Rotoworld Player News Blurbs, Roster Resource, and/or MLB Playing Time to be up-to-date on how every roster is being handled.

Know Which Stats to Trust and Why

While most stats can be noise early on, we do need to identify stats we trust and keep an eye on them early on. It will never be a perfect way of identifying whose "breakout" is legitimate, but sometimes we need to make do with inexact science.

For hitters, I prefer to look at plate discipline metrics first (walk rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, etc.). Those tend to stabilize the fastest and are a good way to let me know which hitters are putting themselves in the best position for success. A hitter who makes clear strides in his plate discipline can often be a hitter who will see better results than I expected. Now, there will always be a 2023 Jorge Mateo, who seems to be a changed man only to later revert to his old ways, but I think plate discipline gains are still the best early stats to track.

I also like looking at barrels. Barrel rate is a stat that tends to stabilize around 50 batted ball events, which (if we assume four at-bats a game for a hitter) would likely mean between 15-20 games depending on how often he's putting the ball in play. As a result, the stat won't stabilize in the first two weeks of the season, but we'll get a sense of who is doing a good job of getting to the barrel more often than the rest of the league, and those are hitters I'd like to take chances on.

For pitchers, I like to also look at plate discipline metrics. What's their strike rate? How many walks do they give up? That tells me how often they're around the zone. I'll glance at swinging strike rate, but that can be noise early on, so I might prefer something like K-BB% anyway. I'll also check Stuff+ and Pitcher List's PLV stats because they stabilize pretty quickly and tell me whose raw stuff looks sharp in the early going. Those tend to be pitchers I want to gamble on.

Go Beyond the Box Score (Especially with Pitchers)

We never want to simply box score scout the first week. I know it's great to open your Yahoo app or go to the NFBC free agent page and sort by most hits, but we need to move beyond that (searching by plate appearances can at least tell you whose lineup spot gives them the most opportunities). For hitters, this is a bit trickier in the first few games, but I mentioned some stats above I like. You can click on the game breakdown on Statcast and see how hard each ball from a specific batter was hit and on what pitch. This can tell us who might be squaring up the ball well but not seeing results (like Jackson Merrill in the opening series).

For pitchers, I try to always watch the game. I like looking at the Statcast Player Breakdown to see if a pitcher is throwing a new pitch, how the movement and velocity stack up against last year, and how each pitch performed, but that's not enough in my opinion.

I also want to see the pitcher in action, especially if the box score is questionable. It doesn't matter much to me if he gave up three runs in five innings and struck out just three hitters. How competitive were the pitches? What did the movement look like? Were the hits earned or cheap? What was his presence like on the mound? These things can tell me a lot about whether or not the pitcher is likely to have a better outing next time out. I can't cut a pitcher until I watch some of his start on YouTube or MLB.TV or live stream, etc.

Prioritize the Schedule

Knowing the schedule for your hitters and pitchers can also help with waiver decisions. If you're on the fence about whether or not to keep a pitcher, it can be a tiebreaker. If a pitcher had a poor start and I watched the outing and thought it was fine but not great and then saw the pitcher is set to face the Braves and then go to Coors, I'm likely going to cut the pitcher. I wasn't sure I wanted to keep him anyway, but now I know I'm not going to use him for the next two weeks, so what good does he do on my bench? The chances are low he's going to shove against the Braves or in Coors if I'm not sure how good he is, so I'd likely be able to add him after those two starts anyway.

And if he does shove against the Braves and in Coors then he either got exceptionally lucky and will come back down to earth later or I don't know what I'm doing when it comes to evaluating pitchers and I'm screwed anyway.

This also goes for hitters as well. If you are debating cutting a hitter or not, look at the schedule for him and the player(s) you're debating adding. Will one of the players sit more in the week ahead because he's a lefty set to face three left-handed pitchers? Is one of the hitters going to face the Oakland and Washington pitching staffs in the week ahead? These factors can help swing the pendulum when deciding who to add or drop.

No Regrets: Don’t Miss Your Guy

Lastly, you have to make your own decisions. The vast majority of people play fantasy baseball for fun (and a little bit of money) so you should try to add players if you like them and want them on your team. The goal is to like your team and for the team to be a reflection of the players you believe in, not a reflection of the opinions of a writer you follow on Twitter. If you don't like a player, don't add him; even if an analyst says he should be a priority add.

Also, even if you are playing in a high-stakes league where winning is everything then winning with the players you believed in and you went out and got before it was clear they were going to be difference-makers is much more satisfying. If you have a feeling about a player or like his swing or like how his slider moves and you believe he's going to have a big year, then try to get him. If it doesn't work out then you'll have bet on yourself, which is never a bad thing. But if it does work out, you'll feel like the smartest person in the room and that's a high that's hard to come down from.