Derrick Henry and his dynasty future
What will become of Derrick Henry in year two? Dynasty fantasy football players are analyzing and over-analyzing the expectations of success for Henry prior to their drafts.
The Tennessee Titans selected Derrick Henry in the second round of the 2016 NFL draft. The Titans also signed running back DeMarco Murray before the draft. The veteran back led the NFL in rushing in 2014, but had a poor performance in 2015.
The expectation (corresponded by quotes from Mularkey and others) is that Murray will be the lead back getting the “lion’s share” of the carries in 2016. Henry would then, consequently, back him up and get a limited amount of reps. Some have also suggested that Henry’s limited work could be as a pile mover- being utilized in short yardage situations.
After winning the Heisman trophy, Henry could arguably be considered the best running back in college football. The best back in college probably didn’t anticipate a career as a backup, but instead being the leading rusher for an NFL team.
This begs the question- what will happen with Henry in year two?
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As Derrick Henry gets more and more comfortable in the NFL, as he gets used to the speed of the game, he will likely have more success.
Many running backs are said to hit a proverbial wall at age 30; where their play goes into a stark decline as they head toward their retirement. Murray will be 29 in 2017.
Henry’s progress and Murray’s regression could offer a smooth transition for both players.
Prior to being drafted, many draft gurus thought Murray would “just” be a third down back in the NFL. They didn’t feel he had all the qualities of a traditional featured back. While his career wound up being far better than expected, those sentiments could finally “ring true” when he begins to show his age.
Henry could be the lead back. Murray could be the third down back. The Titans could have developed Antonio Andrews, Bishop Sankey, or David Cobb by that point or they could add another backup running back.
The issue is as much Murray’s regression as it will be Henry’s progress. Assuming Murray has a good season for the Titans in 2016, it’s difficult to anticipate him struggling in 2017. It’s a more realistic expectation to anticipate a decline in 2018 when he hits age 30.
Dynasty football fans will probably have to wait for year three to reap the rewards of drafting Derrick Henry. Year two will likely begin a changing of the guard, but that’s about it.
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