Does Jefferson have NFL potential? Hog fans think not, but analysts think so

It’s often been said that the quarterback gets too much credit when his team succeeds, and too much blame when his team fails. He is the proverbial lightning rod, especially in stormy weather.

Case in point, Kenneth Dewayne Jefferson Jr., better known in these parts as KJ. He is the fifth-year senior captain at Arkansas, and one of many, who have developed a somewhat love-hate relationship with the Razorback faithful. When the team wins, the fans love him, yet when the team loses … let’s just say he gets his share of the blame.

But whether you love or hate him, what he has accomplished at Arkansas has been nothing short of remarkable, especially considering where the program was when he arrived on campus.

Now, although the masses of Razorback fans on social media scoff at the notion that Jefferson has a chance to make it on the next level, many NFL minds, actually in the know, would completely disagree.

The 4-Star high school standout was recruited by many high-profile Division I programs, after a prep career that included 40 victories, 9,582 passing yards, 2,922 rushing yards and 143 total touchdowns. He was rated as the No. 4 dual-threat QB in the country, according to 247 Sports, and somehow, former Razorback head coach Chad Morris convinced him to choose the Razorbacks over the likes of Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Baylor and others.

The good news was that Jefferson was coming to Fayetteville. The bad news was, it was in the midst of the worst stretch in Razorback football history. In his two seasons at the helm, Morris was winless in the SEC (0-14) and just 4-18 overall. He will go down as arguably the worst coach in the conference’s illustrious history, and will always don the worst black eye in Razorback lore.

Jefferson backed up transfers Nick Starkel and Ben Hicks in 2019, playing very little, before Morris was shown the door and replaced by Sam Pittman.

When Pittman took over, he immediately went out and landed former Florida starting quarterback Feleipe Franks to take the controls of the Arkansas offense in 2020. That essentially paid off with three surprising SEC wins during the turmoil season of COVID-19.

Jefferson finally got his opportunity to play – and shine – in 2021. He engineered a shocking 40-21 win over No. 11 Texas to get things rolling, then led the Hogs to a 9-4 record and an Outback Bowl victory over blue-blood Penn State.

Jefferson was the talk of the town, the hero of the fanbase, and was picking up steam on the national level. Just two years removed from the Morris debacle, he appeared to be the savior.

Then came the injury-plagued season of 2022, when Jefferson went down with a shoulder and clavicle injury against Texas A&M in the fourth game of the season. He did not return until the following week against No. 5 Alabama, then missed the Mississippi State game. The Razorbacks quickly went from 3-0 to 3-3.

Without much time between games to recuperate, Jefferson managed to lead the Hogs to wins over Auburn and BYU, but was visibly hampered by the injury during a 21-19 loss to No. 23 Liberty. After more time to heal, he did look much stronger in the Liberty Bowl win over Kansas, racking up 417 yards of total offense and four touchdowns – two through the air and two on the ground.

The 6-foot-3, 247-pound quarterback entered 2023 with high expectations, which included Heisman Trophy mention and preseason second-team All-SEC honors. Jefferson then appeared to suffer another injury in the second game of the season, against Kent State. Although Pittman was mum on the exact nature of the injury, it was evident that Jefferson wasn’t 100 percent in the loss to BYU, particularly running the ball. When you follow that with four straight SEC games against stiff competition, away from home, it does not help matters.

The Razorbacks have also struggled without the services of first-team All-SEC running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders for the majority of the season, and the penalty bug has bitten far too often, particularly with 14 against BYU and 11 against LSU. But the blame for the team’s struggles seems to fall squarely on Jefferson’s shoulders, more than anything else.

Granted, he has uncharacteristically thrown more interceptions this season than he has in the past, but he is also working with an entirely new receiving corps and a new offensive coordinator. Entering the season, he had thrown just 10 career interceptions in 666 pass attempts. He has already tossed six picks this season, in just 188 attempts.

But for the fans who criticize his accuracy, Jefferson’s career 65.6 percent completion percentage is the highest in Arkansas history, surpassing Tyler Wilson’s 62.6. Jefferson completed 68 percent of his passes last season, also a Razorback single-season record.

There are many moving parts to a team’s struggles, but it seems fans always need someone to blame. On the field, the target is Jefferson. Although he nearly helped pull off the upset of the year last Saturday, in a 24-21 loss at No. 11 Alabama, throwing two touchdowns in the final 15:33.

So, what is his outlook for a potential NFL career? Most fans on Twitter say, no chance. But the actual Draft analysts have a much brighter outlook, particularly with Jefferson’s proto-type size and physical tools.

According to Pro Football Network’s scouting report, Jefferson’s strengths include: ♦ Impressive thrower ♦ Flashes great touch to layer passes ♦ Shows consistent downfield placement when in rhythm ♦ Sturdy frame that punishes defenders as a runner ♦ Surprisingly nimble/fluid for his size ♦ Careful decision-maker ♦ Strong RPO operation.

NFL Draft Buzz has Jefferson rated as the No. 13 quarterback in the class with a projected fourth-round selection. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Jefferson as one of its eight under-the-radar prospects, who could rise up the Big Board.

It’s tough to judge NFL potential on a disgruntled fan’s eye test. How many Razorback fans would have guessed Brandon Allen would currently be in his eighth NFL season? Then there are the Tom Bradys and Brock Purdys of the world, who will shock everyone. And there are also the Ryan Leafs and JaMarcus Russells of the world, who will shock everyone for the opposite reason.

Story originally appeared on Razorbacks Wire