Detroit Tigers newsletter: Tarik Skubal tops AL Cy Young contenders after dominant April
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It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.
Or, at least that’s what the Detroit Tigers have been telling us, year after year after year — y’know, over each of the past five seasons in which they’ve entered May with a losing record. (We’re not counting 2020, in which they were at .500 entering May — 0-0, because the coronavirus pandemic pushed the season’s start to late July.)
But this season? The Tigers won’t need a post-April push to approach .500; they’re already there, at 16-12, with two games to go before May. Not only that: They need just one win in the final two games of April (Monday and Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals) to clinch their second winning month of the season. (Who can forget the glorious 3-0 March run in Chicago?)
Likewise, left-hander Tarik Skubal looked poised for an awful Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, as he started by allowing a double (of the seeing-eye variety, skittering just over third baseman Matt Vierling’s glove) and a run-scoring single — down 1-0 after seven pitches.
His finish, though, was something to behold: Skubal retired 20 of the next 21 batters, mixing four-seam fastballs and changeups to baffle the Royals — “Pitching in and off (the plate),” as Skubal put it, “not even throwing strikes, just get them to take the first pitch so that way they can't ambush the second one.” — and pick up his AL-best fourth victory of the season.
“It was an impressive outing, by an impressive competitor,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said postgame Sunday.
Hello, and welcome to the Cy Of Relief Newsletter!
In the second inning, Skubal locked in with the fastball. In the third, he found the changeup, and finished with one run allowed on four hits over seven innings. In all, it was Skubal’s fifth start (out of six) in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer, tied for second-most in the American League.
In Hinch’s words: “It looked like he hit another gear. That's what the big boys do, the guys you expect to anchor a staff."
We could go on about the Tigers’ victory — A Wenceel Pérez homer! A Parker Meadows double! A Jake Rogers homer! — but you’re probably better off catching up with the writeup from the Freep’s Evan Petzold.
Most importantly, it was the kind of start you’d expect from the Tiger we (and a few others) labeled “a dark horse Cy Young Award contender.” And as we head into May — cue your Justin Timberlake GIFs — it’s time to take a look at the AL Cy Young race (which is, uh, actually full of dark horses) so far:
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(All statistics entering Monday.)
Honorable mentions — Tyler Anderson, Angels; Erick Fedde, White Sox: They’ve got the numbers to get in the discussion, at fourth and fifth in bWAR, respectively, among AL pitchers, but they’re not likely to pitch many meaningful games down the stretch, as the Halos and ChiSox are a combined 16-40.
Seth Lugo, Royals: It’s tough to argue with the results so far from the 34-year-old — especially after he diced up Tigers hitters in his seven innings Friday afternoon. But considering this is just his third season as a starter — in nine MLB campaigns — he might need to show a little more, especially since his strikeout rate (5.4 per nine innings) is easily the worst on this list.
Kutter Crawford, Red Sox: Already arguably the second-best FGCU alumnus (behind former teammate Chris Sale) in MLB history, the 28-year-old opened the season by allowing just two runs in 21⅓ innings before doubling that (four runs, three earned) in Friday’s start. One stat that suggests he could be coming back to earth soon: he’s yet to allow a home run this season after giving up 17 in 129⅓ innings last season.
Tanner Houck, Red Sox: Continuing our trip through the BoSox rotation, the 2017 first-rounder is third in the AL in ERA (1.60), WHIP (0.915) and strikeouts (41). He has also put up a couple of signature starts, with a three-hit, nine-strikeout shutout of the Guardians on April 17 and then striking out nine Cubs in just 6 ⅔ innings Sunday on ESPN’s national night game. But the 27-year-old might be the second-most improbable name on this list, considering he finished last season with a 5.01 ERA in 106 innings.
Ronel Blanco, Astros: The most improbable arm on this list? That would be the 30-year-old who debuted in 2022 and entered this season with a 4.78 ERA in 24 career appearances, including just seven starts. Then again, start No. 8 was the gem of the season, as Blanco needed just 105 pitches to no-hit the Blue Jays (with seven strikeouts and two walks). Almost as impressive was his most recent start, in which he allowed just two earned runs in the noted launching pad of Mexico City, leaving him with a 1.65 ERA and 0.918 WHIP that are fourth in the AL.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners: The 2018 draft class checks in, as the No. 14 overall pick from that summer leads the AL in strikeouts (44) and innings (40) and is No. 2 in WHIP (0.800) while walking just nine batters. But home runs are been a bit of an issue, with five allowed in five starts to push his ERA just above 2 (2.03, to be exact), good for eighth in the AL.
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays: Given the mostly unheralded nature of the pitchers we’ve run through so far, we’ll make this 29-year-old —one of only two non-honorable mentions here with an All-Star nod (two, actually) — it’s tempting to make him the favorite, especially with a 21⅔-inning scoreless streak (which ended in Thursday’s loss to the Royals) that put his ERA at an AL-best 1.23. Then again, that’s the only major stat in which he ranks among the top five, which would explain why he’s still at +2000 to win the Cy Young (per BetMGM).
Corbin Burnes, Orioles: While we’re on the topic of experience, we arrive at this 29-year-old in his first AL season. In the NL, however, he won a Cy Young (2021) and has three other top-eight finishes in Cy Young voting. This season, he’s merely lurking behind the stat leaders, with a 2.55 ERA (11th in the AL), 35 strikeouts and eight walks in 35⅓ innings. His WHIP sits at 0.934, good for fifth in the AL; that and his award history goes a long way toward explaining why he’s tied for the best Cy Young odds from BetMGM, along with … well, you know …
Tarik Skubal, Tigers: Our other 2018 draft pick, taken 241 picks after Gilbert, followed his September 2023 AL Pitcher of the Month nod with a March and April in which he has struck out 41 while walking just six over 36⅔ innings (with a 19-inning walk-free run before Sunday’s free pass in the seventh inning), dropping his Cy Young odds from BetMGM to just +350. His 1.72 ERA is only sixth in the AL, but he’s tied for third in strikeouts and No. 1 in WHIP (0.736). He’s also the youngest pitcher on this list, which means that even if he doesn’t come out on top this season, we’ll be having this discussion for years to come.
Then again, if he finishes off the season like he did the Royals on Sunday, we’ll be talking about a Cy Young repeat next April.
Skubal diving
So why is Skubal having such a stellar 2024? After dominating with his four-seam fastball in the past, Skubal is connecting with his changeup, too. On Sunday, he drew whiffs on 11 of the 29 changes he threw — six more than he got on his 63 other throws combined. As A.J. Hinch put it: “He knows what he’s doing with how he disrupts timing. You may ambush him once and get away with it but he’s a smart guy who knows how the art of pitching works.” That mastery, as the Freep’s Shawn Windsor notes, has the Tigers in position to stay competitive throughout the summer.
A fast start
Skubal, of course, was quick to send kudos for his victory to 24-year-old rookie Wenceel Pérez, who delivered his first career big-league homer in the bottom of the first inning: “I’m as happy as he is,” Skubal said. “That guy plays baseball the right way. It’s fun to watch.” Since his debut on April 8, Perez is hitting .286 with four extra-base hits, two steals and five RBIs. And the secret to his home run Sunday? "I did like 20 pushups last night," he told Our Man Petzold with a smile.
Tork without torque
On the other end of the hitting spectrum, there’s third-year first baseman Spencer Torkelson, who’s still looking for his first homer of 2024 after blasting 31 in 2023. Just seven players with at least 110 plate appearances this season have a worst OPS than Torkelson’s .578; then again, they include All-Stars such as Nick Castellanos (.476), Randy Arozarena (.483), Corbin Carroll (.531) and Xander Bogaerts (.565). In any event, Torkelson isn’t letting the slump keep him from charity work, as he dropped a new clothing line Friday, with a portion of the proceeds going toward Type 1 diabetes research.
Faces in the crowd
Three other Tigers were busy off the field last week — along with about 250,000 other folks in downtown Detroit: Alex Faedo, Casey Mize and Jason Foley were part of the eventual record-setting NFL draft throng on Thursday night. Mize, in particular, had mixed feelings about the Lions’ top pick, Terrion Arnold — the Alabama cornerback had a pair of interceptions to stun his alma mater, Auburn, in their annual Iron Bowl rivalry. Still, Mize didn’t begrudge Lions fans their fun, according to Our Man Petzold: "Not great on my end," Mize said, "but I'm happy for Lions fans. Good pick."
Mark your calendar
The Tigers continue their battle against the Show Me State — after taking two of three from the team in the west, K.C. — with a three-game visit from the team in the east, St. Louis. Maybe they can get recent Lions draft pick Ennis Rakestraw Jr. — out of Columbia, Missouri, right in the middle — to throw out the first pitch? The series opens tonight at 6:40 p.m. with Kenta Maeda on the mound for the Tigers, followed by former Cards righty Jack Flaherty going Tuesday night and Reese Olson toeing the rubber on Wednesday afternoon.
3 to watch
Sure, we’ve gone deep into pitching this week, but there are some Tigers hitters to watch, too:
MARK CANHA: The 35-year-old has a team-high .913 OPS and is getting some time at first base.
RILEY GREENE: He’s No. 2 in baseball with 23 walks, something he calls “freakin’ awesome.”
BUDDY KENNEDY: Homer in his debut gave him a victory over Mike Trout.
Happy Uno de Mayo de Mize-o!
Yes, the return of Casey Mize to the mound for the Tigers this season brings the return of the celebration of the righty’s birthday — he turns 27 Wednesday. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick has been effective — though not quite dominating — in his five starts this season, with a 3.08 ERA, 18 strikeouts and six walks in 26⅓ innings. That included a victory on April 21 — his first MLB win in nearly 1,000 days. (That’s like … 300 NFL drafts!) Most importantly, Mize isn’t feeling the nerve pain that stunted his development two years ago, as Our Man Petzold noted last week. (Mize, by the way, will have his birthday off, with his next start likely to come Friday against the Yankees in New York.)
Other Tigers birthdays this week: Zach McKinstry (29 on Monday), Gates Brown (would have been 85 Thursday; died in 2013), Austin Meadows (29 on Friday), Rick Leach (67 on Saturday).
TL;DR
One final reminder: A dominant April (and March, as the seasons start earlier and earlier) doesn’t guarantee a Cy Young nod — but it doesn’t hurt, either. Just consider reigning AL winner Gerrit Cole’s opening month last season: A 1.11 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 11 walks over 40⅔ innings.
That’s not to say, though, that any of the pitchers who’ve bombed this month are out of contention, either; reigning NL winner Blake Snell began 2023 with his worst month, posting a 5.48 ERA with 26 strikeouts and 18 — EIGHTEEN! — walks in 23 innings.
Don’t throw away those Kenta Maeda Cy Young bet slips, is what we’re saying.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford. Join the newsletter at: profile.freep.com/newsletters/tigers-headlines
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Who's the AL Cy Young favorite, and why is it Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal?
