Detroit Tigers in MLB free agency: Breaking down bounce-back candidates on pitching market

The Detroit Tigers may not be shopping at the top of the free-agent market, but they do have plans for the offseason: Namely, targeting starting pitchers, specifically bounce-back candidates, on one-year contracts.

President of baseball operations Scott Harris attended MLB's general manager meetings last week at the Omni Montelucia Resort and Spa in Scottsdale, Arizona, which marked the start of the 2023-24 offseason.

"We're pretty focused on pitching," Harris said last Tuesday. "I think every team in baseball could use some pitching additions. We're no different, so we're going to focus on that."

WHAT HARRIS WANTS: Specific type of pitching is priority for Tigers throughout remainder of offseason

Here are 13 free agent options (with their age as of 2024 Opening Day), many of which the Tigers have already shown interest in:

RHP Frankie Montas

Age: 31.

2023 stats: 1 game (0 starts), 1⅓ IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.250 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 fWAR.

The buzz: If a return to health and his pre-injury form were guaranteed, Montas would be at least a top-five, and maybe even a top-three, starter on the market, behind only Yoshimoto Yamamoto, Blake Snell and possibly Aaron Nola. But Montas missed almost the entire 2023 season due to right shoulder surgery. He returned Sept. 30 for one game out of the bullpen, recording four outs. His four-seam fastball averaged 94.8 mph, and he featured four other pitches: splitter, sinker, cutter and slider. He will likely receive a high-value one-year contract loaded with incentives, but if he waits until spring training and throws bullpens for interested teams, his market could be defined by his fastball velocity. If his velocity is around 96 mph (and if he shows all of his pitches), certain teams might consider offering a longer-term contract to lock him up under market value. Back in 2021, Montas registered a 3.37 ERA with 57 walks and 207 strikeouts over 187 innings in 32 starts. The New York Yankees helped him rehab and probably want him back.

LHP Alex Wood

Age: 33.

2023 stats: 29 games (12 starts), 97⅔ IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.433 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.2 fWAR.

The buzz: Wood's ideal fit might be a return to the Atlanta Braves — with whom his career began as the No. 85 overall pick in 2012 — in search of another World Series championship, possibly to finish his career. He is known for his deceptive three-quarters delivery, three-pitch mix (sinker, changeup, slider), high ground-ball rate and low walk rate. There are health concerns, but past injuries helped the San Francisco Giants — featuring Harris as their general manager — sign Wood to a one-year, $3 million contract (with up to $3 million in incentives) in January 2021. The Giants were one of the few teams willing to take on his medical concerns. The decision paid off: Wood posted a 3.83 ERA with 39 walks and 152 strikeouts over 138⅔ innings in 26 starts in 2021, earning a two-year, $25 million contract extension. Since then, he has a 4.77 ERA across 228⅓ innings, with a move to the bullpen. His slider hasn't been as effective over the past two seasons. Maybe Harris wants a reunion, and maybe Wood would be open to signing a cheap contract and working in a swingman role if necessary.

LHP James Paxton

Age: 35.

2023 stats: 19 games (19 starts), 96 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 1.0 fWAR.

The buzz: After Montas, Paxton has the highest upside among the one-year candidates. He was arguably the top available pitcher on the market at the trade deadline, but the Boston Red Sox decided to keep him in hopes of making the postseason. That didn't happen, and now Paxton is a free agent. The lanky Canadian with a no-hitter in his past is almost guaranteed to get a one-year contract. If he wanted a multi-year contract, he would have needed to stay healthy and dominant following his May 12 return from Tommy John surgery. He had a 2.73 ERA (with a 6.4% walk rate) in his first 10 starts, then a 6.98 ERA (with a 10% walk rate) in his final nine starts. His season ended when the Red Sox placed him on the injured list Sept. 10 with right knee inflammation. A mechanical issue might have been the reason for his end-of-season struggles. But a healthy version of Paxton is a top-of-the-rotation starter due to his 95 mph four-seam fastball (topping out at 98 mph), high-whiff secondary pitches and consistent release points.

RHP Luis Severino

Age: 30.

2023 stats: 19 games (18 starts), 89⅓ IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.646 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, -0.6 fWAR.

The buzz: Severino needs to prove he can stay healthy for an entire season — something he hasn't accomplished since 2018. He struggled in spring training and didn't make his 2023 debut until May 21 because of a strained right lat muscle, then was shut down Sept. 9 for the remainder of the season because of a strained left oblique. Severino, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, experienced slight regressions in command and movement. His ERA jumped from 3.18 in 2022 to 6.65 in 2023. At the end of July, Severino described himself as "the worst pitcher in the game." The fact that the Yankees couldn't fix Severino, when his struggles appeared to be tied directly to a back injury, might be the most concerning factor. After all, Severino maintained his 96 mph four-seam fastball velocity, but his walk rate increased, his strikeout/whiff rates decreased, and his fastball got demolished. If his mechanics can be fixed, and if he can stay healthy, he has tremendous upside.

RHP Tyler Mahle

Age: 29.

2023 stats: 5 games (5 starts), 25⅔ IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.4 fWAR.

The buzz: Mahle probably won't receive a one-year deal. Rather, he should end up receiving a one-year contract with at least a team option for the 2025 season. That's because he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023 and won't return until late July 2024. Teams will be interested in paying this offseason for potential future services. He had the best season of his seven-year career in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA with 64 walks and 210 strikeouts over 180 innings in 33 starts. But his four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from 94 mph in 2021 to 92.6 mph in 2023. Signing Mahle in the offseason would allow a team to monitor the most important stages of his Tommy John rehab and possibly tweak his mechanics in hopes of keeping him healthy. He profiles as a mid-rotation starter when he isn't on the injured list.

RHP Kenta Maeda

Age: 36.

2023 stats: 21 games (20 starts), 104⅓ IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 1.5 fWAR.

The buzz: Mahle and Maeda were both active in the Minnesota Twins' starting rotation only briefly. Maeda, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Japan in 2016, underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2021 and didn't return until April 2023. He struggled in his first four starts with a 9.00 ERA across 16 innings and landed on the injured list in late April because of a right triceps strain. Surprisingly, Maeda returned to the Twins in late June and found consistency in his final 17 games, posting a 3.36 ERA across 88⅓ innings. His four-seam fastball averages 91 mph, but his success is found within the nasty combination of his splitter and slider. (The Tigers want to establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market. Signing Maeda to a one-year contract, and giving him a first-class experience, would be a good place to start.)

LHP Wade Miley

Age: 37.

2023 stats: 23 games (23 starts), 120⅓ IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 fWAR.

The buzz: Miley isn't flashy, but his success when healthy isn't lucky. Since 2018, he has a 3.43 ERA with an 8.1% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate over 582⅔ innings in 115 games. He revived his career in the late 2010s by implementing a cutter and has pitched for four different teams in the past six seasons, including A.J. Hinch's Houston Astros in 2019 and most recently the Milwaukee Brewers in 2023. Miley, whose four-seam fastball averages 90 mph, utilizes a pitch-to-contact approach, keeps the ball on the ground and limits hard contact at an elite rate. He throws more cutters (44.3%) and changeups (24.6%) than fastballs (19.5%). In the clubhouse, he has received glowing reviews for being a good teammate.

LHP Sean Manaea

Age: 32.

2023 stats: 37 games (10 starts), 117⅔ IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 1.1 fWAR.

The buzz: It was a weird year for Manaea. He started the season in the Giants' starting rotation, moved to the bullpen in May and transitioned back to the rotation in September. In September, he decreased his fastball usage, increased his changeup usage and raised his release point. It's tough to pinpoint what clicked, but Manaea registered a 2.25 ERA with two walks and 18 strikeouts over 24 innings in four starts to finish the season. He also boosted his fastball velocity to 93.6 mph as a result of his offseason work at Driveline, a sign that Manaea is willing to implement adjustments. He hasn't been on the injured list since 2019.

RHP Jack Flaherty

Age: 28.

2023 stats: 29 games (27 starts), 144⅓ IP, 4.99 ERA, 1.580 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.8 fWAR.

The buzz: Flaherty stayed healthy for an entire season for the first time since the 2019 season (when he finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting and 13th in NL MVP voting). Still, the former first-round pick lost the feel for his slider and hasn't had his optimal four-seam fastball, likely limiting him to a one-year contract. He had a 4.43 ERA in 109⅔ innings with the St. Louis Cardinals, then a 6.75 ERA in 34⅔ innings after the trade deadline with the Baltimore Orioles. His whiff rate remains slightly above average because of his curveball, but his command has deteriorated. Fixing Flaherty, one of the youngest starters on the market, seems like a difficult task.

LHP Martin Pérez

Age: 32.

2023 stats: 35 games (20 starts), 141⅔ IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 0.5 fWAR.

The buzz: Pérez, who doesn't have health concerns, had the best season of his career in 2022, making the All-Star team and logging a 2.89 ERA over 196⅓ innings in 32 starts. He accepted the $19.65 million qualifying offer, returned to the Rangers and won the 2023 World Series, but his performance was more reflective of his career results: a 4.44 ERA across more than 1,400 innings in his 12-year career. The Rangers moved Pérez to the bullpen at the beginning of August, and he recorded a 2.70 ERA across 33⅓ innings in 15 appearances. The bullpen could be his home for the remainder of his career.

RHP Lance Lynn

Age: 36.

2023 stats: 32 games (32 starts), 183⅔ IP, 5.73 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 0.5 fWAR.

The buzz: Lynn stands out because he throws fastballs more than 80% of the time, with three different shapes: four-seamer, cutter and two-seamer. He pounds the strike zone, works ahead in counts and generates whiffs with elevated fastballs. His velocity, though, has declined over the years, from 93.5 mph in 2021 to 92.2 mph in 2023, and his 8.3% walk rate in 2023 was his worst mark since 2018. When he didn't locate his fastballs, especially his four-seam fastball, opponents crushed him. That happened too often last season (including allowing four consecutive home runs in an NLDS-ending loss last month). He wants to start, but his future could be in the bullpen.

RHP Kyle Gibson

Age: 36.

2023 stats: 33 games (33 starts), 192 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.6 fWAR.

The buzz: There's nothing sexy about the way Gibson pitches, aside from his new sweeper. He led the American League with 198 hits allowed, but he ranked sixth with 192 innings pitched. He has a long history of staying healthy and eating innings regardless of his performance. Gibson, barring a miraculous turnaround, isn't a wise investment for teams seeking high-upside pitchers because he won't have trade value at the deadline and won't be reliable in the postseason.

RHP Trevor Bauer

Age: 33.

2023 stats (in Japan): 24 games (24 starts), 156⅔ IP, 2.59 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, N/A fWAR.

The buzz: It's unclear if any team will consider signing Bauer, who hasn't pitched in MLB since June 2021. He was placed on administrative leave for sexual assault allegations and suspended as a result of MLB's investigation. The L.A. County District Attorney's Office did not file criminal charges due to a lack of evidence in the case. Bauer struggled at the beginning of his stint in Japan because his elevated upper-90s fastballs were getting hit, but he found consistent success when he adjusted to pitching down in the zone. His agents, Jon Fetterolf and Rachel Luba, attended the general manager meetings.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers in MLB free agency: Breaking down bounce-back pitchers