How Detroit Tigers, Colt Keith agreed to contract extension without ever playing in MLB

Colt Keith, one of the best prospects in baseball, is the first player in Detroit Tigers history without any major-league service time to sign a long-term contract extension.

The deal looks like a steal for the Tigers.

Keith is expected to make the 2024 Opening Day roster as the everyday second baseman, after hitting .306 with 27 home runs last season in the minor leagues. The 22-year-old has superstar potential because of his consistent contact, monster power and smart swing decisions.

"If I stay within myself and stay within my swing, I'll be fine," Keith told the Free Press on Dec. 11, just seven weeks before signing his contract extension. "There's not a sense of panic when I think about big-league spring training and making the team. I know what it takes to make that team, and I think I have what it takes. I'm definitely ready."

A BIG DEAL: Tigers sign Colt Keith to contract extension worth up to $82 million over 9 years

Keith, a left-handed hitter, is guaranteed to earn $28.6425 million over six years, covering the 2024-29 seasons, but the contract can be worth up to $82 million over nine years, taking him through the 2032 season, if all three of the club options are escalated and exercised.

The three club options: $10 million for 2030 (with a $2,642,500 buyout), $13 million for 2031 (with a $1 million buyout) and $15 million for 2032 (with a $2 million buyout). He can earn an additional $18 million in potential escalators on the club options.

"This contract demonstrates our faith in Colt and this organization's commitment to acquire, develop and retain young talent," Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said Sunday in a statement.

The Tigers, led by Harris, approached Keith in late December about the idea of a long-term contract extension. The two sides officially agreed Sunday morning to the extension. A news conference is scheduled for Tuesday at Comerica Park.

Keith's agent is Matt Paul of Munger English Sports Management.

"We had to get creative," Paul told the Free Press on Sunday. "We had to think creatively. Our conversations had to be flexible. Most importantly, this is what Colt really wanted if we could agree to something that we felt was fair."

There's a chance Keith won't become a free agent until November 2032, when he is 31 years old. By that point, his performance and health could be on the decline coming out of his prime. Or, he could gearing up for another long-term contract with an even bigger payout.

Nobody can predict the future.

But Paul tried to predict his client's salary arbitration situation as part of the analysis process in contract extension negotiations. Most players earn the MLB minimum salary in their first three seasons before becoming eligible for arbitration in their next three seasons. Players can enter free agency after six years of service time.

For example, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge earned $39.5 million in his first six seasons, including $19 million in his final year of arbitration, whereas Keith is guaranteed $28.6 million in his first six seasons, including $5 million in what would have been his final year of arbitration. Judge then became a free agent after those six years, following his age-30 season, and signed a nine-year, $360 million contract.

Keith is under team control for the next nine years because of the three club options.

"The most important thing for us was the arbitration process," Paul said. "This deal aligns with him being a top-five earner (in arbitration), and when looking at similar position players through the age of 30, if these options are picked up, this puts him in the top five-to-seven second basemen when you talk about earners."

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The only risk for the Tigers is that Keith needs to stay healthy for the duration of the six-year contract, which is a noteworthy risk. Keith injured his throwing shoulder less than two years ago — missing four months — when he dived into first base on a pickoff attempt. He aggravated the same shoulder last season when he dived for a ball, but in that case, he missed a few games and didn't need a stint on the injured list.

Health factored into Keith's decision to sign the long-term contract.

"Realistically, this is life and a human being," Paul said. "There is risk involved every time you walk out of your house. He has already been injured once. I think that was something that was a factor in these conversations. It's a 162-game season, so 162 times six years, you have to stay healthy for nearly 1,000 games."

This offseason, Keith has taken steps to prepare his body for a long career.

"If I stay healthy, I'm confident I can get to 35-40 homers," Keith said. "The strength is there. The power is there. This year, we decided it's more about longevity and being able to play for 10-15 years and also being able to play in the middle of the infield."

Keith has been training with physical therapist Robby Ellis this offseason, but the regimen covers more than physical therapy for the labrum in his right shoulder.

The emphasis in sessions with Ellis, who has more than 70,000 followers on Instagram and is known as a movement specialist, has been placed on injury prevention for his entire body, with a focus on mobility, flexibility and range of motion. As a result, Keith expects to see in-game improvements from his running, throwing and hitting.

"It'll help me all-around on defense, but also on offense," Keith said. "Being able to have that hip and torso separation will help me with my power. I'm just doing a lot of stability exercises and isometric holds. I'm actually still gaining muscle. I'm gaining muscle in different areas, like the little muscles in my calves, ankles, wrists and shoulders."

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If Keith stays healthy, he has the potential to develop from one of the best prospects in baseball to one of the best players in baseball. He is already a top candidate for 2024 American League Rookie of the Year.

In 2023, Keith hit .306 with 27 home runs, 60 walks (10.4% walk rate) and 121 strikeouts (21% strikeout rate) across 126 games in Double-A Erie (59 games) and Triple-A Toledo (67 games). Before the season, Keith hit .261 with two home runs, four walks and six strikeouts across 16 games in his first year of big-league spring training.

The Tigers promoted him to Triple-A Toledo on June 26. He launched a home run in his first plate appearance en route to posting a .287 batting average with 13 homers over 301 plate appearances.

"I raked in last year's spring training, and I felt like I belonged," said Keith, a fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft. "I feel like I could've faced those guys all year and been able to compete every single day. I go to Double-A, and I perform well. I go to Triple-A, and I perform well. It just reaffirms what I knew after spring training. It's all the same."

He had a 75% contact rate, 83.2% in-zone contact rate, 24.5% chase rate, 90.4 mph average exit velocity and .247 isolated power last season. He created damage on fastballs and mistake pitches. He registered an 87.5% contact rate on four-seamers and sinkers inside the strike zone.

But Keith struggled against well-located changeups from Triple-A pitchers.

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"That changeup would be down," Keith said, "and I would either rollover or swing and miss. If your swing wasn't how you wanted it to be, they could beat you. I fixed it and ended up crushing that changeup."

There will be additional challenges as Keith embarks on his MLB career with the Tigers, beginning in the 2024 season. At every level, though, Keith has been able to make adjustments and thrive as an offense-first prospect despite concerns about his defense. He is a .300 hitter in his 239-game career in the minor leagues, spanning three seasons.

The Tigers, regardless of what happens on the field, will pay him through the 2029 season.

"I'm just excited for spring training," Keith said in mid-December, before signing his long-term contract extension. "Hopefully, I make the team. I think we'll be pretty good. I don't know about you, but I think we'll be able to make the playoffs, at least. We're moving in the right direction."

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' Colt Keith big contract hinges on prospect's health