Can depleted Florida State defeat Georgia in the Orange Bowl? Here's our prediction.

MIAMI GARDENS - The Florida State football team that takes the field at the Orange Bowl Saturday will be different than the team that took the field for the ACC Championship on Dec. 2.

What was supposed to be a celebration for the undefeated Seminoles season in a potential College Football Playoff Semifinal has turned into a depleted matchup between the first two out of the playoffs between No. 5 FSU (13-0) and Georgia (12-1).

The teams play at 4 p.m. at Hard Rock Stadium with teams that hardly represent players who have played major roles in the 2023 season.

The Bulldogs are better positioned than the Seminoles, as they will likely be down two key star opt-outs in tight end Brock Bowers and offensive lineman Amarius Mims.

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FSU is down at least 11 starters - including two quarterbacks in Jordan Travis (injury) and Tate Rodemaker (opt-out). Also out are running backs Trey Benson (opt-out) and Lawrance Toafili (injury), as well as receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell on offense.

Defensively, edge Jared Verse, lineman Fabien Lovett, as well as defensive backs Akeem Dent, Jarrian Jones and Renardo Green have also opted out.

With all the opt-outs and injuries, Georgia was a 19.5-point favorite over FSU, per BetOnline as of Thursday evening.

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UGA is 6-4-1 all-time against FSU, including a 2-0-1 at neutral sites. The two teams last met in the Sugar Bowl in 2002, with the Bulldogs pulling off a 26-13 victory.

So, how will this game likely unfold? Why would the Seminoles win, and why would the Bulldogs come out with the victory? Below is a breakdown of those scenarios, along with a score prediction.

Why Florida State will win

Freshman Brock Glenn had a rough first career start against the Cardinals in the ACC Championship Game, completing 8 of 21 passes for 55 yards. He was sacked four times and finished with a 12.8 QB rating.

However, now that the first start is out of the way and he has game reps against a tough defense in him, maybe he can find his footing in this game. Glenn has shown he is a threat on the ground, but if he can find his passing game early, he'll keep the Georgia offense honest.

Despite the opt-outs of the skill players, the offense line is intact and is going to have the task of keeping Glenn upright. If they win their battles, Glenn is better set up to find his offensive weapons.

FSU has stockpiled young depth with Hykeem Williams and Destyn Hill potentially taking on larger roles in this one as talented freshman. Kentron Poitier has flashed his potential at times at receiver, as have Ja'Khi Douglas, Darion Williamson and Deuce Spann.

There is not a true No. 1 receiving threat, but plenty of talent to spread the ball around to.

While FSU does lose five starts defensively and is especially short on experience at defensive back, the team has plenty of talent. Darrell Jackson Jr. will make his season and FSU debut and is a perfect replacement for Lovett. Patrick Payton has a chance to showcase he's the next great defensive end playing a bigger role with Verse gone.

Sophomore cornerback Azareye'h Thomas and freshman safety Conrad Hussey have shown flashes of their potential throughout the season as playmakers and will be thrust into bigger roles.

If the Seminoles can muddy this game and force a turnover or two, FSU has a chance to make this game ugly and pull off the upset. That's especially if the offense plays a clean game and a play or two can be made on special teams.

This would need to be a complete team win.

Why Georgia will win

Georgia has won 29 of its last 30 games, with its lone loss in the last three seasons coming in the SEC Championship to Alabama.

Kirby Smart is in his eighth season as a head coach, with a record of 93-16 and two national championships.

Carson Beck has opted into the game and has announced his return. The talent is real for the former 4-star QB from Jacksonville.

Beck threw for 3,738 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. His 85.2 QBR was ranked seventh in the nation.

He leads a Bulldogs' offense that averages 177.3 rushing yards per game (43rd in FBS) and 305.6 passing yards (10th in FBS), with a total of 482.9 total yards (9th in FBS).

Even without Bowers - the top tight end in college - the Bulldogs offense is potent.

Daijun Edwards RB Kendall Milton are the top rushers for Georgia. Edwards has 158 rushes for 818 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns and Milton has rushed 112 times for 686 yards (6.1 YPC) and 12 touchdowns.

Receiver Ladd McConkey has 29 receptions for 456 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns and Dominic Lovett has 51 catches for 575 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bulldogs have the 10th-best defense in the country, allowing an average of 295.2 yards per game and 4.83 yards per play. They are ready to challenge Glenn.

Georgia has 12 interceptions for the season (tied for 22nd in FBS). Tykee Smith leads the Bulldogs with four interceptions and safeties Malaki Starks and Javon Bullard have two.

Linebacker Jalon Walker leads the team with five sacks and 24 quarterback pressures in just over 200 snaps.

FSU vs. Georgia prediction

FSU pulling this game off, proving the College Football Playoff Committee and then claiming a National Championship would be a feel-good story after what the program has been through in the last month.

But it just feels like it would be a hard thing to pull off right now. Making your second career start against the talented Georgia front is a scary proposition.

The Bulldogs are also going to be closer to fielding their full roster - which is chock-full of 5-star recruits up and down the roster and are motivated after losing their first game in three years.

The Seminoles are very well-coached under fourth-year head coach Mike Norvell and will keep the game respectable for much of the game.

But at the end of the day, talent always prevails and FSU just does not have enough to compete against a very good Georgia team.

Kassim's prediction: Georgia 35, Florida State 14

HOW TO WATCH ORANGE BOWL

Who: No. 5 FSU (13-0) vs. No. 6 Georgia (12-1)

When/where: 4 p.m., Saturday, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

TV/Radio: ESPN/94.9 FM

Live game updates: www.Tallahassee.com; @Ehsan_Kassim, @jackgwilliams and @JimHenryTALLY on X, formerly Twitter

Reach Ehsan Kassim at ekassim@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @Ehsan_Kassim. You can also follow our coverage on Facebook (NoleSports), Instagram (tlhnolesports) and YouTube channel (NoleSportsTD).

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football prediction, preview vs. Georgia in Capital One Orange Bowl