Dansby Swanson cashes in on career year, signs seven-year, $177M deal with Cubs

Dansby Swanson put his best foot forward heading into free agency. He turned in the best season of his career in his walk season and was rewarded for it Saturday, agreeing to a seven-year, $177 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

Swanson, 28, excelled in his final year with the Atlanta Braves, hitting .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs in 696 plate appearances. He also stole a career-high 18 bases, contributed excellent defense at shortstop and played in all 162 games. He entered free agency with 6.4 fWAR in his walk year, which ranked 11th among position players.

Whether Swanson can maintain that level of production remains an open question. His 2022 slash line marked only the third time in his career that he was better than a league-average hitter. Swanson posted a career-high 116 wRC+, a stat that measures a player's offensive performance, in 2022. That figure suggests that his offensive numbers were 16% better than league average. Swanson posted a 115 wRC+ in 2020 and a 107 wRC+ in 38 games as a rookie. In his four other seasons, he has alternated between a league-average hitter and a below league-average hitter.

The biggest driver of Swanson's strong offensive seasons is his BABIP. He posted BABIPs of .348 or higher in his three best offensive seasons. His career BABIP sits at .313, suggesting that regression could be likely. However, he has skills that can sustain a high BABIP, as he hits the ball harder than most players, posting a hard-hit rate in the 72nd percentile in 2022. He's also fast, posting a sprint speed in the 79th percentile last season. Both factors could lead to Swanson posting higher than average BABIPs moving forward.

If regression hits, Swanson has enough defensive ability to provide value. He has always been a strong fielder and was recognized with his first Gold Glove award in 2022. He should continue to produce at a high level defensively moving forward, at least in the short term. Swanson has also been incredibly durable, having missed just two games the past three MLB seasons.

Swanson hit free agency with three big-name shortstops

Swanson entered free agency at the same time as three other big-name shortstops. Trea Turner was the first of those to sign, setting the shortstop market with an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Despite being younger than Turner, Swanson was never going to make that kind of money. While his 2022 production was fantastic, his career hasn't been as consistent.

That said, Swanson has put up above-average offensive production in two of the past three seasons. If he can continue to deliver, Swanson should provide plenty of value at one of the most important positions on the field. If the offense is inconsistent, he should at least post good defensive numbers.