Dallas Cowboys’ passing struggles are tied to a lack of schematic innovation

With the New York Giants’ most recent win against the Washington Commanders, the Dallas Cowboys have clinched a spot in the 2022 playoffs.

Despite this, we must address the lack of consistency from Dallas offense. Over the last few weeks, the Cowboys haven’t been playing good football. They barely pulled out a win against a one-win Houston Texans team in Week 14, and then they took an overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Since the week 9 bye, the Cowboys have won four of their last six games, but Dak Prescott has thrown 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. If your quarterback is throwing an interception for every two touchdowns, that’s a problem!

The Cowboys haven’t been able to shut teams out when they are up. Against the Green Bay Packers, entering the fourth quarter, they were up 28-14. Against the Jaguars, they were up 27-10 in the third quarter, yet they couldn’t maintain the lead. The third and fourth quarters have been a problem that cannot be ignored.

There is certainly enough blame to go around, but with the decision-making in critical moments by Prescott, inconsistent passing, and more importantly, the play-calling; it’s time to dive into the film and find out what’s wrong with Prescott and Dallas’ offense overall.

Late-game collapses.

[Bob Self/Florida Times-Union]

The most recent loss to the Jaguars cannot be blamed solely on Prescott. When going back to look at this play, if the receiver just catches the ball, Dallas gets a first down.

After replaying this game, I noticed that this wasn’t the first time they ran this play.

On a third-and-3 in third quarter, the offense ran the same exact concept. If Prescott would have just thrown this ball to Noah Brown, they would have gotten a first down to move the chains.

Prescott gave the ball back to the Jaguars offense, who scored on a 59-yard touchdown pass to Zay Jones. Just like that, they closed the gap to only ten points.

Prescott seems to “do too much”, and this is preventing the Cowboys offense from gaining any momentum to close out games.

In the third and fourth quarters of games, per Sports Info Solutions, Prescott has a 54.1 completion percentage. He’s 27th in air yards with 352, and he has six touchdowns, six interceptions and six sacks.

On the next drive, the Cowboys came out in heavy personnel, which would usually scream run, but they don’t even run play=action. Instead of just throwing it away, Prescott takes a sack.

Prescott put his team in a similar situation against the Texans the week before.

On first down, Prescott could have just given it to his tight end who was running in the flat, since the cornerback was dropping back into coverage. Instead, he double clutched, fumbled, and puts his offense in a second-and-20.

Then on the very next play, he threw an interception:

It’s two weeks in a row now where Prescott didn’t take an easy completion, which then put his offense in a hole where he feels like he has to dig himself out of.

It’s also an issue that head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore haven’t been drawing up enough concepts to get CeeDee Lamb, their best receiver, open.

Play-action success.

[Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

The Cowboys’ recent success is a direct reflection of the rushing attack. In the first half against the Jaguars, the Cowboys totaled 91 rushing yards on 21 attempts. In the second half, they had 36 yards.

The play-action won’t work if the run game doesn’t work, it’s as simple as that! When pulling the numbers, Prescott has not been good without play-action.

• With play-action: 99.0 QBR, 8.19 EPA, 6 TD, 0 INT

• Without play-action: 64.3 QBR, -16.04 EPA, 11 TD, 11 INT

Those splits are night and day. When the offense abandons the run game, the offense collapses.

Without play-action, the secondary can play deeper, which would force Prescott to have to throw into smaller windows.

Now look at a touchdown from a play-action pass. Safety Darnell Savage (No. 26) steps up to play the run, and he ends up being the closest player to Lamb on the touchdown pass.

The Cowboys' passing game is tied to a lack of innovation.

Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys are not sticking to what they do best when the game is in their grasp. In November, 2021, our own Doug Farrar, broke down an innovative play that we saw against the Falcons.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys have only run a total of 30 screen or flat passes this season with Prescott. Last year, they had a 20% boom (positive play) percentage with screens and this year, it’s only 6.7%, per SiS.

That is a significant drop.

Their playcalls have gotten so bland and easy to predict, even the broadcast team knew which way the Cowboys were audibling to, in this run play against the Texans.

Another play call that left us scratching our heads was in last week’s loss against the Jaguars. With only one minute left, the Cowboys bring extra pass protection and just send their receivers on streaks.

This is one of the toughest concepts to complete. They called this in one of the most critical moments in the game!

It wouldn’t be fair to put all the blame on Prescott. Even though he seems to ‘do too much’ in those critical moments, he is still playing well overall.

According to rbsdm.com via Anthony Dabbundo, Prescott is still ranked in third in EPA + CPOE with (.173). He’s top five in accuracy, efficiency and second in success rate among all quarterbacks; all since week 7.

Here is what head coach Mike McCarthy had to say after last week’s loss: “I’ve been at this long enough to know that at the end of the 17 games, it sorts itself out. I’ve been the (No. 1 playoff) seed and (been) knocked on my ass, and won it from the 5th seed…We just got to keep our heads down and keep working.”

The Cowboys have a lot of work ahead of them before the end of the regular season. The best thing they have going for them is that this upcoming Christmas Eve game against the Philadelphia Eagles won’t be as significant as they already secured a playoff spot.

We aren’t sure who is to blame for the lack of success from the offense, coordinator Kellen Moore or McCarthy, but one thing is for sure. They’d better rely more on the run game if they want to have success in the playoffs.

Story originally appeared on Touchdown Wire