How concerned should the Falcons be about QB success rate?

The Falcons have an aging veteran at quarterback, a top-five pick, and both a new general manger and head coach. Generally, these are signs that a team is on the verge of a rebuild and probably looking for a new franchise quarterback. With just one QB on the roster, Atlanta will almost certainly add one through the draft, but in which round?

After two pre-draft trades, the first three selections are now locks to be quarterbacks. The San Francisco 49ers, who traded up to No. 3, publicly confirmed their intentions, and New York, who traded away Sam Darnold to the Panthers, have revealed their draft plans as well. This means the Falcons’ pick at No. 4 is the true start of the 2021 NFL draft. And while Atlanta could very well select a quarterback, this would mean taking the fourth-best player at a position that isn’t high on the team’s priority list.

This begs the question: how successful are QBs taken in the top-10? Success for a quarterback is defined by performance, consistency level, and longevity with the team the player was selected by. Some people like to throw in team wins, but this involves outside variables and therefore, is something I will leave out.

These numbers represent the quarterbacks selected in the top 10 of each draft from the years of 2000 to 2018. In total, there were 32 quarterbacks selected, 13 were No. 1 overall picks. These numbers reflect each quarterback’s tenure with the initial team they were drafted by. For context, I am looking past the Chargers drafting Eli Manning and only associating him with the Giants, same goes for Philip Rivers.

NOTE: Patrick Mahomes, John Allen and Baker Mayfield were disregarded in “average seasons” due to them still playing on their rookie contracts with their initial teams.

Something you may notice is the steady decline in production and the low amount of time spent with the initial drafted team. Of the 32 quarterbacks in question, 19 of them failed to last beyond their rookie contracts. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz both signed extensions but were traded away before they fully kicked in. Their fifth years were exercised prior to the 2019 season and kept them with their drafted teams through the 2020 NFL season.

As you see, a majority of quarterbacks do hit the 3,200-yard benchmark. In fact, 21 of the 32 top-10 picks do. However, only 28 percent of those quarterbacks replicate this same success more than five times in their careers. Only Eli Manning (14), Philip Rivers (14), and Matt Ryan (12) have replicated this success 10 or more times.

To go a step further, of the 14 QBs who passed for 4,000 yards or more, only 28 percent of these quarterbacks passed for this many yards more than five times. Once again, Philip Rivers (11) and Matt Ryan (10) are the only two players who did this 10 or more times. Like the ones who passed for more than 3,200 yards, this feat was also accomplished an average of four times.

By using the same data, only two QBs have posted over 4,800 yards more than once, Matt Ryan (2) and Matthew Stafford (2). Eli Manning, Jameis Winston and Patrick Mahomes have all done it just once. Albeit, Mahomes still has plenty of career left to expand on this. To average out, this feat has only been accomplished one time.

It’s also important to note that these benchmarks set with the NFL’s former 16-game schedule. Now that the NFL added an extra game, the benchmark for success would be pushed even further. Guys like Carson Wentz, Eli Manning, and Baker Mayfield would average over 4,000 yards per season, something they failed to do in 16-game seasons.

The hardest area of production to achieve is getting over 40 touchdowns in a season. Of the 32 quarterbacks, only three players got over this mark and only did so once. Matt Ryan is not one of them, but he was only two touchdowns away in 2016, and five away in 2018 from joining the 40-touchdown club.

So when assessing which quarterback to bring in, the Falcons have to make sure they can replicate the current production of Matt Ryan. During his 13-year NFL career, Ryan has averaged 4,353 yards passing through a 16-game schedule. When taking into account the last five seasons and the additional 17th game this year, Ryan is projected to pass for nearly 5,000 passing yards in 2021.

Another 4,000 yard season in 2021 and Ryan will have passed Peyton Manning for the record for most consecutive seasons. Additionally, Ryan has the most seasons in which he has passed for 4,500 yards or more, with seven.

By looking at the data on hand, it is unlikely the Falcons get that same kind of production from any rookie. It is also important to note that the No. 6 overall selection in the 2020 NFL draft did shatter the rookie passing record with 4,336 yards. However, until Justin Herbert gets more experience under his belt, we don’t know if this level of production will be sustained.

What if the Falcons don’t chose a QB with the fourth pick? Obviously, the deeper in the draft you go, the less likely you are to hit on a consistent starter that gives you high production value. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are the only quarterbacks not drafted in top 40 to start all 16 games in their rookie seasons since 1978.

This isn’t necessarily to deter the idea of selecting a quarterback altogether, as each has to start their career off somehow. This is just to show that for every Mitchell Trubisky, there is a Patrick Mahomes, and for every Matt Ryan, there is a Joe Flacco.

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