Colts vs. Bills: Staff picks and predictions for wild-card weekend
The Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills are set to kickoff a big wild-card weekend with a 1:05 p.m. ET start time at Bills Stadium on Saturday.
As Vegas and the bettors have the Bills winning with relative ease, and the experts around the league side with Buffalo as well, many aren’t giving the Colts much run. They have embraced the underdog role in this matchup.
Here’s how the Colts Wire staff sees this game shaking out:
Kevin Hickey (@KevinHickey11): Bills 29, Colts 24
Kicking off wild-card weekend are the Colts and Bills in what could very well turn into a barn burner. The Colts offense has proven to be more explosive with Philip Rivers under center while the Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL led by MVP-candidate Josh Allen and the electric Stefon Diggs.
This game is likely going to come down to the turnover battle and which defense is able to get a stop or two. While the Colts defense has been strong throughout the season led by defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, they’ve faced this caliber of offense maybe once this season when they played the Packers. While they won that game, not having Anthony Castonzo could spell trouble for the offense enough to help the Bills create a lead.
The matchup to watch will be Diggs against Xavier Rhodes. The former teammates will battle in a matchup that will likely determine the outcome. If the Colts can limit Diggs, they have a chance to win. If they don’t. It’s hard to see them keeping up.
In the end, the Colts keep it close but the Bills are able to hang on for the win.
Sam Sinclair (@samsinclair96): Bills 34, Colts 28
They found a way to make it to January. After a wild Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts are in the playoffs. Their reward? Going on the road to face one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen has been nothing short of amazing this year, and he should be in talks of winning MVP after leading the Bills to a 13-3 record, and scoring over 40 TDs. One reason for Allen’s success this year has been the addition of Stefon Diggs, who has been their catalyst in the pass attack.
While the Bills offense has been lighting up scoreboards all over the NFL, their defense has been average at best. They’re 13th in pass defense, and 20th in rush defense, but their pass defense has really stepped up the last month.
The key to the game will be red zone and turnovers. The Bills are 13th in red zone offense, but have been better recently, and 20th in giveaways per game. The Colts are 18th in red zone offense and third in giveaways per game.
Both defenses are really good at turning over opponents. The Bills are fourth in turnovers forced per game, and the Colts are fifth.
In what could break out as an offensive explosion, look for which team does better in the red zone, and see which team can win the turnover battle. Both of those will go a long way into winning and advancing.
The Bills enter as a 6.5-point favorites, while they will not have Cole Beasley, they will have their stud in Diggs. This will be a “first to 30 points wins” type of game, and I think it will be close throughout, but don’t think the Colts offense has enough to keep up.
John Alfieri (@alfierijohn): Bills 31, Colts 24
The Colts have a tough first-round draw as they travel to Orchard Park to take on the Bills. Buffalo is riding a six game winning streak heading into the postseason and have many analysts wondering if they can make it to the Super Bowl.
Buffalo’s offense is loaded, led by star quarterback Josh Allen. If the Colts want to limit his production, they will have to provide constant pressure and have linebackers spying on him all day. Luckily, Indy has one of the best containment linebackers in the league in Darius Leonard.
The biggest mismatch in this game is Stefon Diggs vs. the Colts secondary. Rock Ya-Sin has been ruled out with a concussion, leaving Matt Eberflus thin in the secondary. Look for a combination of single and double coverages to limit the league’s leader in receiving yards.
If the Colts want to win, they will have to establish the run the way they did in the second half of the season. This will be a close game for three quarters, but in the end Buffalo will pull away and continue their postseason run.
Standings
1. Kevin (13-3)
2. Sam (11-5)
3. John (10-6)
