College football betting, odds: Dillon Gabriel leads value Heisman options
Since our Saturdays will be filled with college football for the next four months, let's take one last peek at the Heisman Trophy market to see if we can uncover some value bets before the chaos starts.
Bryce Young edged out C.J. Stroud to win the Heisman last season, and both quarterbacks return to the top of the board for this year's sequel. Their positions make sense considering Alabama and Ohio State project to be the top two teams in the country, and the award typically falls in the hands of quarterbacks who have very strong statistical seasons on very successful teams.
Over the past 12 years, only DeVonta Smith and Derrick Henry have been able to pry the Heisman out of the hands of quarterbacks. And in both cases, Smith and Henry were part of championship teams at Alabama. So if you are looking to take a shot on a player who isn't a quarterback, my advice is to make sure he plays for a team with real potential to win a national title.
The challenge with betting Stroud or Young is that there isn't much to gain. Their odds are already short, and if the season plays out as expected, there will be opportunities to bet them in-season at a similar price. Before the season, I prefer to take a chance at long shots who could see their odds shorten significantly after a few big games. So I put together three options who have both the ability and opportunity to disrupt the Heisman race.
Dillon Gabriel (+2000)
Oklahoma produced back-to-back Heisman winners from 2017-2018. Sure, Lincoln Riley is gone but don't expect the Sooners' offense to drop off with Jeff Lebby bringing his up-tempo offense to Norman. In addition, Gabriel gets a coach he previously had success with at UCF, but now with weapons like Marvin Mims and Theo Wease to unleash his full potential. Between Lebby's aggressive play-calling and willingness to dial up big shots, Gabriel should be able to compile the statistical profile that keeps you in the Heisman conversation. A favorable schedule gives the Sooners a shot at a 10- or 11-win season. And if they win enough games, Gabriel will be hard to ignore.
TreVeyon Henderson (+2000)
The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the season with three strong candidates for the award: Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Henderson. But here's why I think the Buckeyes' running back has a chance to separate himself from his teammates. Highlights go a long way with the voters, and Henderson ripped off runs of 40-plus yards six times last season. Only two running backs had more — Breece Hall and Tyler Badie — but they did so with at least 70 more carries than Henderson. Coming off his freshman season, Henderson will be ready to take on a bigger role in college football's most dynamic offense. Henderson's big-play ability on a national stage will get enough attention to make him a threat to take the award.
Malik Cunningham (+6600)
I am going deep into long-shot territory with this one, but I already bet Louisville to outperform expectations this season. Cunningham is back for his senior year to follow up on a season in which he fell just shy of 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns. He will top those numbers while producing another monster statistical season behind an offense returning most of its starters. It's certainly not going to be his performance on the field that takes him out of contention. It will be whether Louisville can win enough games to remain relevant.
At +6600 odds, I think Cunningham is a chance worth taking. Louisville's schedule is back-loaded, with its toughest three games (Clemson, N.C. State, and Kentucky) falling in the season's last three weeks. If it can head into that stretch with seven or eight wins, Cunningham will have the opportunity to impress voters against Clemson and N.C. State in back-to-back weeks. Even if it's in a losing effort, I think a dynamic performance against those defenses could make this bet come to life. That's all you can ask for at 66-to-1.
