College Basketball Best Bets, March 2: Creighton vs Marquette, Baylor vs Kansas, Houston and More!

Vaughn Dalzell shares his full card for the Saturday College Basketball slate, including Creighton vs Marquette, Baylor hosting Kansas and a few first half team totals!

Houston (-6.5) at Oklahoma: O/U 130.0

Oklahoma is coming off a road loss at Iowa State where they were held to 45 points on 3-of-17 from deep (17.6%), 12-of-19 from the free-throw line (63.2%) with 14 turnovers.

The Sooners scored 20 points in the first half of that game and goes back home to host the top-rated defense in the country. Playing the back-to-back best ranked defenses in the country is a tough for Oklahoma who is 1-3 in the last four games.

Houston has held its last four opponents to 16, 25, 23, and 27 first half points. In that four-game span, the Cougars defense ranks 4th in adjusted efficiency, 5th in turnover rate, and comes in as the No. 1 team in the country, per Barttorvik.

In that same four-game span, Oklahoma owns the 186th-ranked offense and is 316th in effective field goal percentage (45.5%), 311th in three-point percentage (28.8%), and 211th in turnover percentage (16.8%). The Sooners have also been without big man and Pitt transfer John Hughley (8.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG) all four games.

I will keep riding the Houston defense in the first 20 minutes. I played Oklahoma's First Half Team Total Under 28.5 at -105 odds on DraftKings and would go down to 27.5.

Pick: Oklahoma 1H Team Total Under 28.5 (1u)

Virginia at Duke (-9): O/U 124.5

Just like I continue to ride Houston's defense, I will continue to fade Virginia's offense.

The Cavaliers have gotten out to putrid starts over the last four games with 21, 16, 16, and 27 first half points. We are 4-0 in that stretch taking the first half team total under for Virginia and run it back at Duke.

Virginia has the 183rd-ranked offense this month and 350th over the past four games. At home, Duke held its last four opponents to 23, 27, 32, and 25 first half points.

I grabbed Virginia's First Half Team Total Under 26.5 at -105 odds on DraftKings and would go down to 25.5.

Pick: Virginia 1H Team Total Under 26.5 (1u)

Iowa at Northwestern (-3): O/U 152.0

Northwestern has won three straight and five of the past six, while Iowa is 3-1 in the last four games. Both teams are trending in the right direction entering March, but I like the home team here.

Since the start of February, Iowa has the 211th-ranked defense and 9th offense, while Northwestern is top 43 both ways. Northwestern is 14-1 at home this season and undefeated in conference home action (8-0) compared to Iowa who is 3-8 on the road (3-6 in Big Ten).

The Hawkeyes struggle to rebound, defend from two-point range (57.5%), and do not force turnovers (15.2%) on the road. Northwestern is a great three-point shooting team (39%, 8th) and even better at home (44.5%, 2nd). The Wildcats also don't turn the ball over (13.5%, 6th) and are an experienced bunch.

I'll take Northwestern to win by two possessions at home here. I played Northwestern at -3 and -115 odds on DraftKings. I'd go to -4.

Pick: Northwestern -3 (1u)

ML Parlay (+103)

Creighton ML (-192) vs Marquette

Vermont ML (-295) vs UMass Lowell

Vermont is hosting UMass Lowell in its final home game of the season. The Catamounts beat the River Hawks in OT, 72-65 at UMass Lowell earlier in the year.

Vermont is 9-1 at home versus UMass Lowell and there is a lot on the line in this matchup. A win for Vermont locks up the No. 1 seed once again in the American East tournament. Vermont has won the regular season title or share of it for eight straight seasons now.

With a chance to do so again on Senior Day (three seniors) is one the Catamounts will relish in. Creighton also hosts its Senior Day and could face a Marquette team without its best ball-handler, guard Tyler Kolek.

Marquette beat Creighton at home, 72-67, earlier in the season, so this is a payback spot for the Blue Jays. Marquette is 11-1 in the last 12 games, but with Kolek banged up, and UConn, then Xavier up next, I think Marquette became a fade starting today.

I played Vermont ML's and paired it with Creighton's ML for +103 odds on FanDuel and would play the -110 on DraftKings out to -120.

Pick: Creighton ML and Vermont ML Parlay (1.5u)

ML Parlay (-112)

Baylor ML (-240) vs Kansas

Vermont ML (-295) vs UMass Lowell

Baylor is hosting Kansas today with some payback on its mind as the Jayhawks got the home win, 64-61, earlier this season.

The Bears are in a good spot after dominating TCU on the road, and now return home. Kansas lost its previous game, a home matchup versus BYU and now go on the road most likely without Kevin McCullers once again.

Baylor has won three straight at home versus Kansas and has the No. 10 offense in the nation over the last five games. The Bears have the rebounding, three-point, and free-throw edge in this meeting.

I already explained why I like Vermont in the previous breakdown, so parlay that with Baylor as well for -112 odds on FanDuel, out to -130 for risking 1.5u.

Pick: Baylor ML and Vermont ML Parlay (1.5u)

Season Record: 56-42 (57.1%) +8.71 units

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