College Basketball best Bets, Feb. 9: Kentucky vs Gonzaga, UF vs Auburn, Nebraska vs Michigan
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for the Saturday slate, including Michigan vs Nebraska, Kentucky vs Gonzaga, and Florida vs Auburn.
Gonzaga at Kentucky (-4): O/U 168.5
Kentucky dropped two games to Florida and Tennessee before smoking Vanderbilt by 32 points, while Gonzaga is 6-1 in the past seven games with a lone loss to WCC-leader Saint Mary's.
Gonzaga is down this year and that is no secret. In the Bulldogs' five games games against top 50 ranked teams, Gonzaga is 0-5 losing by 10, 5, 13, 10, and 2 points (8.0 points per game). The Bulldogs are shooting 22.1% from three in those five games (286th) and have the 108th-ranked offensive efficiency.
Gonzaga has to travel across the country after playing on Wednesday, while Kentucky last played on Tuesday with a short trip home.
Take Kentucky -4 at -110 odds on DraftKings out to -5 for 1.5 units and -6 for 1 unit.
Pick: Kentucky -4 (1.5u)
Michigan at Nebraska (-7.5): O/U 154.0
Michigan has won eight straight meetings against Nebraska, but the tide is about to turn in this meeting.
Michigan has lost four straight conference road games by 6, 7, 32, and 21 points and this is another challenge. While the Wolverines beat the Badgers at home in the previous outing, Michigan had leading-scorer Dug McDaniel (16 points), who is ineligible in road games like this one.
Nebraska enters off two-straight losses and a 1-3 record in the past four games, so this is a must-win for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska has won eight straight home games and is 14-1 this season. The Cornhuskers have won by at least six in all 14 home wins and by eight or more points in 12 of 14.
With one of the best offenses in conference play and a 78.8% free-throw percentage in Big Ten home games compared to Michigan's 69.2% in conference road games, take Nebraska to pull away and win by double-digits.
I played Nebraska -7.5 at -110 odds on DraftKings for 1.5 units and would go out to -9.5 on FanDuel for 1 unit.
Pick: Nebraska -7.5 (1.5u)
Auburn (-1.5) at Florida: O/U 160.5
This is a stellar-looking fade spot on Auburn after that monumental and exciting home win over Alabama. Now, Auburn goes on the road to Florida where the Tigers have lost 14 straight! Auburn's last win at Florida was in 1998.
Auburn is hot, riding a 14-2 stretch over the last 16 games, while Florida's four-game winning streak was snapped at Texas A&M on Saturday. The Gators have had a week off to prep ahead of this home matchup, which should bode well for Florida.
The Tigers are 3-3 in true road games this season with the 323rd-ranked three-point offense (28.1%) and the Gators own the 22nd-ranked three-point defense at home (27.3%).
Auburn will have to be hot throughout the game, similar to the Alabama contest, because Florida is no easy place to play (9-1 home record) given the noise and how the Gators can play at a slower or quicker tempo.
Give me the Gators as short home dogs of +1.5 at -110 odds for 1.5 units. I would play this down to the ML at -115 odds for 1 unit.
Pick: Florida +1.5 (1.5u)
Season Record: 27-23 (54%) +1.08u
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