How Cleveland Guardians stole multiple pitchers, best playoff chances from Cincinnati Reds
Who says Ohio is only a swing state every four years?
Welcome to what might suddenly have become Major League Baseball’s most impactful swing state for the 2023 fall races with a flurry of waiver claims on Thursday by the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians.
The Reds and Guardians picked off the top five players available on waivers from the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees on Thursday — the Reds adding outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader, and the sub-.500 Guardians adding three pitchers just ahead of the deadline to make them eligible for possible postseason play.
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It raised two immediate questions for the Reds as the calendar turns to September for the final pennant-race sprint:
Will adding more power to an injury-depleted lineup and an exceptional defender to the outfield make a big enough difference over the final 27 games for them to make up the two games separating them Thursday from playoff position?
And did the Guardians just swing playoff races in both leagues by blocking the Reds from acquiring starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, lefty reliever Matt Moore and/or righty reliever Reynaldo Lopez?
“We feel we got two solid players to add to our offense and help make our defense in the outfield better as well,” Reds general manager Nick Krall said, adding that a scoring decline in August and mounting injuries to the hitting corps made the opportunity to add the power-hitting Renfroe and Gold Glove-fielding Bader especially important.
He also said, “We put other claims in on guys and weren’t able to get them.”
Krall wouldn’t say what players the Reds didn’t get when claims were granted Thursday, or even how many or what positions they played; MLB considers behind-the-scenes waiver-wire information top secret stuff.
But you only have to do the math to know it was at least two of the pitchers the Guardians claimed.
When a player is claimed by more than one team, the claim is granted according to inverse order of winning percentage, regardless of league.
The Guardians were the only team with a worse record than the Reds who were granted any claims Thursday.
So if the Guardians are able to use their newfound pitching prowess to close that five-game gap on the Minnesota Twins in a crappy American League Central, they might impact the playoff fields in both leagues if keeping those pitchers from the Reds also keeps the Reds on the outside looking in at the NL wild-card field.
The Reds have the third-worst rotation ERA in the majors at 5.30. The rest of the bottom five is made up of last-place teams.
It was 5.63 during a 10-17 August.
What are the Reds' playoff chances with this rotation down the stretch?
It’s not the only place the playoff boat is leaking for the Reds these days, but it’s hard to imagine it getting much better considering the fact that Nick Lodolo — one of the players the club counted on as a late-season reinforcement — has officially been ruled out for the rest of the season after receiving another medical opinion this week in New York on his ailing left leg.
And while Opening Day starter Hunter Greene’s start Wednesday in San Francisco was encouraging, he reported feeling ill afterward, was isolated from the rest of the team, and his status for his next scheduled start is in doubt. Krall said Thursday he’ll have more details Friday.
And two of the four others in the rotation are rookies Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson, both of whom have exceeded career highs in innings as they carry the burden of playoff expectations into what’s left of the longest season in their lives.
That doesn’t count rookies Lyon Richardson and Brett Kennedy, who make up the next tiers of rotation depth behind them.
Krall points out that August’s rotation numbers are skewed by Ben Lively’s last start before going on the injured list to open August (13 runs, four innings) and Greene’s first two starts off the IL in August (13 earned runs in 6 2/3).
The starters’ ERA was a more respectable, competitive 4.29 in the 24 other games in August — albeit with an average of less than 5 1/3 innings per start.
“I was more concerned about our offense from the month of August,” Krall said. “We scored four or less runs in 17 games. We haven’t consistently scored runs. I think we run the bases really well. We’ve just been inconsistent offensively.”
In fact, they were 2-6 in August even when they got the few quality starts the staff provided — 7-11 since the All-Star break.
“We haven’t scored runs,” Krall said. “I think getting two offensive players was good. We’ve been in games. We’ve got to continue to score more runs.”
Consider that from Elly De La Cruz’s debut on June 6 through the game in which he stole three bases in a two-pitch sequence just before the All-Star break on July 8, the Reds averaged 6.0 runs per game.
Since then: 4.2.
Jonathan India (foot), Jake Fraley (toe), Joey Votto (setback with shoulder) and Matt McLain (oblique) all have gone on the injured list since then — Votto and McLain just in the past week.
Fraley is expected to return from the IL on Friday in a DH role as he plays through lingering issues with the toe that will require offseason surgery.
“It hurts when you have four of your everyday guys on the injured list, so just getting a couple extra guys is hopefully going to help us score runs,” Krall said.
What do Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader bring to the Reds?
Renfroe, whose 19 home runs this season would lead the Reds, has averaged 30 each of the past two seasons. And despite being better against left-handed pitchers overall, Krall said his power against both righties and lefties could mean playing time against both for him.
Bader, who’s not the hitter Renfroe is, does have strong splits against lefties, good speed, and he brings the added value of a run-prevention factor.
But the pitching questions will linger as long as the Reds keep pulling from their big red roll of duct tape to fill starting assignments down the stretch.
“Would I love to have had more pitching? Of course we would,” Krall said. “You’d always love to have more pitching. The guys have done an admirable job at this point though.
“Obviously, we play in this ballpark, too,” he added of hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. “You’re going to give up some runs here.”
Unlike at the trade deadline a month ago, there was nothing the Reds could do about failing to add to that area this time around.
And if not having Giolito and at least one of those relievers costs them a spot in the playoffs, they can blame the Guardians of the waiver galaxy for sticking their 64-70 noses into National League playoff business.
If nothing else, it might add a little intrigue and tension to those two games between Ohio’s would-be contenders in the final week of the season in Cleveland.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How Cleveland Guardians dealt blow to Cincinnati Reds' playoff chances
