How Cincinnati Reds could find narrow path to playoffs after damaging loss to Guardians
CLEVELAND — The night the Cleveland Guardians honored the winningest manager in franchise history at his final home game before retirement, they also started a Cy Young winner against the desperate, win-thirsty Cincinnati Reds.
What did you think was going to happen?
Six of the first eight Guardians jumped on Reds starter Andrew Abbott for hits, and three hours later the Reds found themselves staring at the scoreboard for help – lots of help – as they head into Thursday’s off day ahead of the final series of the season, starting Friday in St. Louis.
Where do Cincinnati Reds fans look for hope?
“We’ve got three games left,” Abbott said after Wednesday’s 4-3 loss to Tito Francona’s Guardians, “and we can still make some moves with some other situations going on.”
Exactly.
In other words, the Reds’ fast-fading playoff hopes are now a matter for the baseball gods and gut checks.
And the Braves and the Brewers and the Mets, Pirates and Astros.
The cost to the Reds of Wednesday’s loss represented a missed opportunity as much as anything, keeping them 1 1/2 games out of the final National League playoff position when the two teams in front of them also lost Wednesday – the Chicago Cubs blowing another late lead in Atlanta and the Miami Marlins splitting a doubleheader against the Mets in New York.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, meanwhile, beat the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday to open a 2-game lead over the Cubs and Marlins for the second wild-card spot.
The Reds own the tiebreaker against the Arizona, but barring the Reds winning out and the Diamondbacks losing out, it’s irrelevant.
That essentially makes it a three-team race for one playoff spot between the Marlins, Cubs and Reds.
And remember: They don’t play off ties anymore for trips to October. The Reds own the tiebreaker against the Cubs; the Marlins own the tiebreaker against both the Reds and the Cubs. Ergo, the Reds are screwed if they tie the Marlins for the last spot or if the season finishes with all three tied.
One more win by the Diamondbacks AND two more wins by the Marlins eliminates the Reds regardless of what the Reds do.
So how do the Reds find their way to October in such a muddied, bloodied scrum?
How Cincinnati Reds make MLB playoffs
1. Root like hell (pray?) for the Braves and Mets on Thursday to beat the Cubs and Marlins, respectively.
2. Sweep the Cardinals. Without a sweep, the Reds would need the Marlins to lose all four remaining games – against the Mets (one game) and Pittsburgh Pirates at home (three) – to avoid elimination. To that end, the Reds announced a starting rotation change for St. Louis after Wednesday's loss, switching the order of the first two starters, to put left-hander Brandon Williamson in Friday's opener and righty Connor Phillips in Saturday's game.
3. Get enough help from the Mets and Pirates to keep the Marlins from winning any more than one of their remaining four games.
4. Get enough help from the Braves and Brewers to keep the Cubs from doing any better than a split of their remaining four games.
“There’s nothing we can do about it [Thursday],” Reds manager David Bell said in the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s loss. “But tonight we did everything we could. And come Friday there’s not going to be any sort of difference in our approach.
“It’ll be the exact same team approaching it the same way, and we see what happens this weekend.”
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This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Cincinnati Reds MLB playoff chances, scenarios vs. St. Louis Cardinals
