Chiefs 2024 NFL Draft grades: The upside (and risk) with Brett Veach’s latest class

The Kansas City Chiefs picked seven players in the 2024 NFL Draft, so it’s officially grade time.

How did they do?

You might’ve read already that most national analysts liked the Chiefs’ draft. Typically, writers base those grades on how much value teams get compared to consensus mock draft boards, and if that’s the measure, KC did quite well.

In fact, the Chiefs might’ve even been the best.

According to NFL analyst Kevin Cole, KC’s “reach” score for this draft — measuring how little they strayed from consensus boards — was the top mark in the NFL.

In that way, this draft more resembled how general manager Brett Veach and his staff handled the 2022 class — one labeled as “historic” thanks to its number of successes that later contributed to back-to-back Super Bowl victories.

Studies tell us, however, that there’s more to drafting than just avoiding reaches. Even more important is not losing value with trade-ups while also selecting premium positions with the greatest chance to produce surplus value over the long run.

The Chiefs front office’s great strength in recent years — in contract negotiations and free agency — has been its flexibility while focusing on the long term.

With the draft, however, the team seems to veer a bit from that big-picture strategy.

KC moved up twice in the first two rounds to get its guys, and while the compensation needed wasn’t overwhelming, it still added up to more value lost via trade than any other AFC team. That can’t be ignored, especially considering the Chiefs already face an uphill battle in the draft while selecting toward the end of each round thanks to their on-field success.

With all that in mind, let’s take a first-blush look at KC’s seven drafted players while also considering what it took to get them.

Round 1, 28th overall, receiver Xavier Worthy, Texas

Three weeks ago, I tried to examine whether Veach had a “type” at receiver. In past drafts under Veach, he seemed to favor guys with excellent 10-yard split times while not caring as much about player height.

The best fit from that article? Texas’ Xavier Worthy.

So perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised the Chiefs traded up four spots to get Worthy in the first round.

Star columnist Sam McDowell made a great point earlier this week: Worthy was the start of a receiver run in the draft, so it will only be natural to compare his career arc to players like Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey, who were taken right behind him.

The Chiefs believe Worthy’s speed will play under coach Andy Reid. And they certainly hope a consistent deep threat will unleash more of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ability, after a lack of downfield options forced the QB to settle for much shorter throws in recent years.

KC likes Worthy’s intelligence, and there’s something to that given how often rookies have struggled early with Reid’s complex offense.

Overall, Worthy seems like a good fit in a position of need. Given his smaller stature and the trade-up required to acquire him, though, the Chiefs took some inherent risk in how they selected him.

It doesn’t mean they’re wrong. It just means they need to be right — making this more boom-or-bust than if KC had stayed to take the best guy left at 32.

Grade: B

Round 2, 63rd overall, offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia, BYU

I had Suamataia going to the Chiefs in my mock draft 1.0 with their first-round pick, so there’s no way to complain about the value here.

Especially after the Chiefs took receiver Round 1, they had to be thrilled that the athletic Suamataia — from Reid’s alma mater at BYU — remained on the board this late.

Again, though, would KC have been better off holding its breath one more pick to see if he would’ve gotten to 64?

That’s an uncomfortable moment, for sure. And one would think that Suamataia remained in a tier all his own on the Chiefs’ board at that time, especially with guys like cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten being selected just before that.

Compensation calculators say the Chiefs gave up the equivalent of a sixth- to seventh-round pick to move up for Suamataia. And while that might not seem like much, Veach’s staff has been so effective at pulling late-round talent in recent years that we can’t ignore the lost opportunity cost with the move.

Overall, that makes this a more complicated grade. Suamataia at the 64th pick is an A-plus. At 63, though — with the compensation surrendered — there’s more pressure on the Chiefs to have Suamataia fulfill what they envision he can be.

Grade: B+

Round 4, 131st overall, tight end Jared Wiley, TCU

This pick continues a theme. The Chiefs took Wiley at a point when he appeared to be good value; NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, for instance, rated him as the 83rd-best prospect.

It’s worth noting that the San Francisco 49ers used the pick they received from the Chiefs to jump just ahead of KC here in the fourth round. Would the Chiefs have been in on the 49ers’ new running back Isaac Guerendo, who has a similar size/speed profile to Isiah Pacheco?

We’ll never know, but it’s fascinating to wonder whether the 49ers’ trade-back early was, in fact, the ammunition needed to leapfrog their Super Bowl rival later.

Cole’s research of tight ends has shown elite ones had strong college traits in two areas: 10-yard splits (speed) and yards after catch (avoiding tackles).

Wiley performed poorly in both of those metrics. That’s not to say he can’t be a successful NFL player, but it likely does mean fans hoping he’s Travis Kelce’s heir apparent are setting their sights too high.

Scouting reports say the 6-foot-6 Wiley has solid hands, which would seemingly profile him more as a red-zone weapon at this point (like former Chiefs player Jody Fortson, when healthy) than an every-down tight end.

Wiley seems likely to fill in Blake Bell’s role for now, and with Reid’s love for multiple tight-end sets, he’ll have a shot at plenty of snaps if he learns to become a serviceable blocker.

The good news for the Chiefs? Tight-end surplus value tends to peak in draft rounds 3-4, so utilizing this pick as opposed to, say, taking Michael Mayer in the first round last year is a wiser use of overall resources.

Grade: B+

Round 4, 133rd overall, safety Jaden Hicks, Washington State

There was no better example of the Chiefs’ value-based strategy than Hicks, who ranked 54th on Pro Football Focus’ Big Board.

The scheme-and-team fit seems pretty ideal as well. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves these types of do-it-all players in his secondary, with guys like L’Jarius Sneed and Chamarri Conner serving as success stories in the recent past.

One can quibble about the position value — safeties can come cheap on the open market, as KC found with Mike Edwards last year — while wondering whether the Chiefs should’ve gone for more surplus-value upside. It was surprising that the Chiefs didn’t take an interior defensive lineman in this draft, and if KC had hit on that position in this spot, it could have meant millions in value for KC. A safety’s best-case scenario likely wouldn’t move the needle in that way.

The fact that so many teams passed on Hicks also means that there’s likely something that made teams hesitate on him until Day 3. It only takes one NFL team to reach for a player, but 31 are required to have him slip down the board like this. It’ll surely motivate Hicks to prove a whole lot of folks were wrong last week.

Combine it all, and the Hicks selection seems likely to work out for KC if the goal is a helpful player instead of a salary-cap steal.

Grade: B+

Round 5, 159th overall, center Hunter Nourzad, Penn State

In 2019, the Chiefs selected offensive lineman Nick Allegretti in the seventh round, then were rewarded many times over for that selection.

Allegretti was a longtime versatile backup for KC — he even started in February’s Super Bowl — while providing depth at multiple spots.

With Allegretti leaving in free agency, Nourzad seems likely to fill that void. He ranked 109th on Jeremiah’s Big Board, and though Nourzad profiles as a reserve, the Chiefs have shown they won’t hesitate to put young offensive linemen in the lineup if the situation calls for it.

KC has plenty of uncertainty at those interior O-line spots after this season. Left guard Joe Thuney’s contract gets expensive in 2025, and while center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith are both eligible for extensions this summer, the Chiefs might not have the budget to sign both long-term.

Logically, Nourzad makes a lot of sense for KC. Veach loves to address roster needs a year in advance, and this seems to be an effort to do just that.

Grade: A-

Round 6, 211th overall, cornerback Kamal Hadden, Tennessee

An interesting note: The Las Vegas Raiders took running back (and pass-catching specialist) Dylan Laube three picks before the Chiefs at 208. Also, Las Vegas used a draft pick it received from KC in a trade involving defensive lineman Neil Farrell last November.

Just something to think about in case Laube ever faces the Chiefs.

Hadden, meanwhile, gives KC another body in a suddenly crowded secondary. The Chiefs traded L’Jarius Sneed this offseason but still have recent draft picks Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, Nazeeh Johnson and Nic Jones returning at that spot, along with a hybrid player in Conner.

The 6-foot-1 Hadden has the size that Spagnuolo likes with his cornerbacks. And no NFL team has been better at developing late-round secondary players, so it’s hard to fault Veach for giving defensive backs coach Dave Merritt more clay to work his magic.

While it’s another time when an interior D-line dart throw might’ve made sense, Hadden ranked 173rd on Pro Football Focus’ draft board, meaning he doesn’t appear to be a huge reach, either.

Grade: B-

Round 7, 248th overall, offensive lineman CJ Hanson, Holy Cross

Veach said after the draft the Chiefs didn’t think Hanson would be available to them with this pick, and I believe him.

At this spot in the draft, things get a bit strategic. Teams draft players they don’t think they have a chance to sign as undrafted free agents, and clearly, the Chiefs wanted the opportunity to give Hanson a look they wouldn’t have gotten otherwise.

The Chiefs had a similar situation two years ago when they took Watson as a flier late, and he ended up being a rotational cornerback for them each of the last two years.

Hanson seems like Nourzad insurance, with KC emphasizing the need to find O-line depth ahead of the 2025 season.

At this early stage, it’s difficult to have much of an opinion on this selection either way.

Grade: B-

Overall grade

There’s a lot to like about the Chiefs’ actual picks in this draft.

Taking receiver and offensive tackle early has a chance to pay off big in areas where KC should have limited free-agent dollars in future years. Worthy could potentially open up Mahomes’ skill set in the long term, while Suamataia gives the Chiefs a chance at shoring up a left-tackle spot that has been musical chairs the last few seasons.

KC didn’t “reach” with its later picks, while remaining more disciplined there than perhaps any other team in the NFL.

Some other factors, however, keep the overall grade from going higher.

The Chiefs had a hidden leak with their trade-ups, surrendering draft value they’ve taken advantage of in years past. They also limited their upside on a few of their later picks, selecting players at low-ceiling positions that could turn into starters but are unlikely to be grand slams from a salary-cap standpoint if everything breaks right.

Veach and his staff — as much as any group in the NFL — have earned the benefit of the doubt thanks to all the hits they’ve had in previous drafts.

Every year is important, though. The Chiefs have many expensive contracts on the roster, which reduces the margin for error. This also means that if they’re using limited draft resources to move up in Rounds 1 and 2, those selections have to produce.

Worthy and Suamataia certainly could make everyone forget about the cost of getting them, just as McDuffie did two seasons ago when KC traded up to get him as a first-round pick.

That’s the hope for the Chiefs this year as well. Veach hasn’t been afraid to stick his neck out for “his guys,” and while that’s worked often in the past, history tells us it’s a difficult assignment to pull off every time.

For now, that means the overall grade needs some “to be determined” factored in — with Veach having plenty of time to make it look foolish if he displays (once again) the best of his scouting chops.

Overall grade: B