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BYU is an underdog the rest of the season, according to one popular college football metric

brandon judd
·2 min read
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BYU Cougars safety Ethan Slade tackles Southern Utah receiver Zack Mitchell at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo on Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Beginning Saturday at Arkansas, the sledding for BYU will become appreciably more difficult.

The days of BYU being a favorite during the 2023 season are over, if ESPN’s Football Power Index is to be believed.

After the Cougars started the year with two expected wins against Sam Houston and Southern Utah, BYU, which is playing its first season in the Big 12 Conference, is not favored in any of its 10 remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI metrics.

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All 10 games are against Power Five competition, including nine Big 12 games.

Here’s a look at the remainder of BYU’s schedule and what percentage ESPN’s FPI currently favors the Cougars’ opponent by in each contest, with opponent’s record in parentheses:

  • BYU at Arkansas (2-0), Sept. 16 — Arkansas favored, 79%.

  • BYU at Kansas (2-0), Sept. 23 — Kansas favored, 66.5%.

  • Cincinnati (2-0) at BYU, Sept. 29 — Cincinnati  favored, 73.6%.

  • BYU at TCU (1-1), Oct. 14 — TCU favored, 75.2%.

  • Texas Tech (0-2) at BYU, Oct. 21 — Texas Tech favored, 68.4%.

  • BYU at No. 4 Texas (2-0), Oct. 28 — Texas favored, 95.7%.

  • BYU at West Virginia (1-1), Nov. 4 — West Virginia favored, 67%.

  • Iowa State (1-1) at BYU, Nov. 11 — Iowa State favored, 57.4%.

  • No. 19 Oklahoma (2-0) at BYU, Nov. 18 — Oklahoma favored, 90.8%.

  • BYU at Oklahoma State (2-0), Nov. 25 — Oklahoma State favored, 75%.

In the FPI’s metrics, the Cougars currently only have one matchup where they are less than a 60% underdog — vs. Iowa State on Nov. 11.

Cougars on the air

BYU (2-0)
at Arkansas (2-0)
Saturday, 5:30 p.m. MDT
Fayetteville, Arkansas
TV: ESPN2
Radio: 102.7 FM/1160 AM

BYU currently has two games — at No. 4 Texas on Oct. 28 and vs. Oklahoma on Nov. 18 — where it’s more than a 90% underdog.

ESPN describes its FPI as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.”

Not surprisingly, BYU currently comes in last among Big 12 teams in the FPI’s overall rankings, at No. 70.

The three Big 12 teams closest to the Cougars in the FPI are Houston (No. 65), West Virginia (No. 61) and Kansas (No. 57).