Buffalo Bills trade possibilities come into focus as NFL deadline nears: What to know

ORCHARD PARK - It was right around 4 p.m. Thursday afternoon when the future of Buffalo Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam may have been decided.

Maybe not, but if you connect the dots over what has happened in the past week or so, it’s not exactly a giant leap to conclude that the 2022 first-round pick may become a former Bill by the time the NFL trade deadline expires Tuesday afternoon.

Prior to the 24-18 victory over Tampa Bay, the Bills announced that 35-year-old cornerback Josh Norman - who was just signed to the practice squad a couple weeks earlier after he hadn’t even been in an NFL training camp - was being elevated to the 53-man roster.

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And then, 90 minutes before kickoff when the game day inactives were announced, sure enough, Norman was up and Elam was out. If you didn’t already believe that the Bills were shopping Elam, this looked like the slap the heel of your hand against the side of your head moment.

When I say connecting the dots, think about what has gone on. Last week in New England, Elam was active but he didn’t play a single snap on defense and was on the field for just six special teams plays.

Then the Bills, who had very little salary cap space, restructured the contract of offensive lineman Dion Dawkins, a bookkeeping move that converted some of his base salary into a signing bonus and freed up about $3.9 million, giving the Bills around $5.1 million to play with ahead of the deadline according to sports financial website Spotrac.com.

And now, Elam sits out altogether against the Bucs seemingly to protect an asset from injury, so yes, it does seem pretty clear that the Bills are going to try to use Elam and some of their draft capital in 2024 to upgrade a roster that needs some help in several areas.

“We want the players at this point … we feel like every decision we make is who can help us win,” coach Sean McDermott said when asked why it was Norman over Elam. “We wanted to see what Josh could do there.”

Yeah, nice try. That had nothing to do with it, and the defensive snap counts prove that out as Norman played zero on defense and only five special teams snaps, impressively making two tackles. Dane Jackson and Christian Benford each played 100% of the cornerback snaps.

The Bills have tried to be patient with Elam and have given him opportunities, but more and more it has become obvious that it was a bad pick by Brandon Beane because the player who thrived in press man coverage in college at Florida has not been able to adapt to Buffalo’s more zone reliant scheme.

It was an ominous sign last year when Elam was beaten for a starting job - which was available because Tre’Davious White was still recovering from knee surgery - by Benford, who was the team’s 2022 sixth-round pick. This season, White was back and Benford won the other starting job over Elam and Jackson, and when White got hurt again, it was Jackson who moved into that role.

The only two starts Elam has made were out of necessity. Against Jacksonville when both White and Benford were sidelined, and then against the Giants when Benford returned but Jackson was out, and those two games may have closed the book for Elam in Buffalo. Against Jacksonville he gave up six receptions on eight targets for 93 yards, and against the Giants’ weak offense he allowed four catches on five targets for 42 yards.

Out of 126 cornerbacks who have played at least 70 coverage snaps this season, Pro Football Focus grades Elam at No. 72. And with QBs compiling a passer rating of 109.5 against him, that’s 88th on the pecking order.

That said, there is very likely going to be a team that will look at Elam and think their coaches can get him fixed. They know he was highly regarded coming into the draft and most analysts had him pegged as a late first round, early second round pick. He’s still on a very manageable rookie contract, albeit with first-round money, so he will have some value if the Bills do indeed trade him, though they’ll also have to part with a draft pick, maybe two, depending on what player they are trying to acquire.

The Bills have eight 2024 picks - one in each round and two in the sixth, plus they are expected to receive a compensatory third-round pick for the loss of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, so nine in all. They can afford to part with a couple, and that extra third-round pick might be the juicy morsel that gets a deal done.

Here are four positions where I think the Bills should pursue an upgrade:

Buffalo Bills trade target: Defensive tackle

The loss of DaQuan Jones was a massive hit for the defense, and then when Ed Oliver missed the Patriots game, it was a near disaster. Oliver’s return Thursday was much needed and he had a sack of Baker Mayfield and helped limit the Bucs to 78 yards rushing.

But Jordan Phillips has given the Bills nothing all season outside of telling the fans to cheer louder (he’s very good at that), Poona Ford was a healthy scratch for three games and a mediocrity in the others, and Tim Settle has been average at best since he was signed as a free agent last year. The Bills really need a true one-technique run stuffer and double team absorber who can also push the pocket in the rush, the role that Jones had.

Leonard Williams, who the Bills just faced against the Giants, could be an option. Old pals Beane and Giants GM Joe Schoen could surely get a deal done for the 29-year-old. His cap hit is big, though, so the Bills might not be able to fit him in without doing more restructuring, and that strategy has been a little too popular the last couple years in Buffalo. Eventually, that future money is going to hamstring them.

Buffalo Bills trade target: Linebacker

The Bills have a problem because neither Dorian Williams or Tyrel Doson is a viable option in Matt Milano’s spot. The rookie Williams is too raw and he was benched against Tampa Bay, and Dodson is a liability in coverage and was pulled off the field in favor of a three-safety look that had Taylor Rapp in Jordan Poyer’s deep position, and Poyer in the box, essentially playing Milano’s position. That probably isn’t ideal moving forward.

There are a few candidates who could be moved. One is Denver’s 28-year-old Josey Jewell. He is coming off a 128-tackle 2022 season, has 43 this year, and he’s reliable in coverage as PFF has him with the 19th-best coverage grade among 45 LBs with at least 150 coverage snaps. He’s on a reasonable expiring contract.

Buffalo Bills trade target: Cornerback

Jackson and Benford are both good players so you could certainly do worse than that tandem. But you could also do better.

And remember, if Elam does get moved, there’s no quality depth on the outside if Benford or Jackson get hurt, and both have proven to be injury risks. Norman was already in decline when he was with the Bills briefly in 2020 and after a decent season with the 49ers, he hardly played in 2022 with the Panthers. He can’t be the third corner, and neither can practice squad players Ja’Marcus Ingram, Herb Miller and Kyron Brown.

Finding someone who can step right in start, and then push Jackson or Benford into a depth role would be a good spot for the Bills to be in. The Bears could be an interesting partner if a swap of corners happens, Elam for Jaylon Johnson.

Johnson’s expiring rookie contract is also manageable and the 2020 second-round pick has started all 44 games he has played for the Bears and currently owns PFF’s highest cornerback coverage grade. Obviously, it’ll take at least Elam and that extra third-round pick for a player who might only be a half-year rental.

Buffalo Bills trade target: Wide receiver

The Bills were in on the DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes in the offseason before he surprisingly decided that playing with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee was a good idea. Clearly, that was all about getting the most money. The Titans are struggling and if Hopkins goes on the market, maybe the Bills can get a deal done because the bulk of his contract featured guaranteed bonus money.

However, it’s not like Hopkins has been a revolution. The 31-year-old hasn’t had a 1,000-yard season since 2020, and so far in six games this year he has 27 catches for 376 yards and no TDs. Is he worth the cost it would take to get him?

Denver’s Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are often mentioned as trade candidates, and both could probably flourish away from Russell Wilson and the pop gun Broncos offense. Sutton probably isn’t getting traded, though, and Jeudy was a first-round pick in 2020 (15th overall) who has underwhelmed, and his work ethic was recently called into question by former Bronco star and football analyst Mark Schlereth.

Jeudy has great speed but he has averaged just 47.7 yards per game and has nine receiving TDs since he joined Denver. Gabe Davis, a fourth-round pick in that same draft, has averaged 44 yards per game and has 25 TDs for the Bills. And if Davis can play like he did against the Buccaneers, and Khalil Shakir keeps improving as the third WR with Dalton Kincaid getting heavy targets, maybe there isn’t a need to pay for a wideout rental.

Another possibility could be Arizona’s Marquise Brown who would add much-needed speed. He has averaged 53.3 yards per game in five seasons with the Ravens and Cardinals, he has 32 catches for 383 yards and three TDs this season, and is in the last year of his hefty contract.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills trade rumors heat up: Here's who may be coming and going