Breaking down the Detroit Lions' potential playoff matchups
Matchups.
That’s what playoff football is all about, and that’s why the sky wasn’t falling when the Detroit Lions lost to the Chicago Bears last week and why everything isn’t hunky-dory with the Honolulu Blue-and-silver world now.
The Lions beat the Denver Broncos, 42-17, Saturday in one of their most complete performances of the season. They had a 100-yard rusher (Jahmyr Gibbs), a 100-yard receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown), a tight end who caught three touchdown passes (Sam LaPorta) and a quarterback who took precious care of the ball (Jared Goff).
On defense, they opened the game with a sack-fumble, got good play from the new faces in their playing rotation — Ifeatu Melifonwu, Kindle Vildor, Bruce Irvin — and didn’t allow a point in the first half.
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In short, the Lions were back to looking like one of the best teams in the NFL after a rocky couple weeks, but their win over the Broncos is no more a sign they’re primed for an extended playoff run than the Bears loss was a signal of their demise.
Of course, it’s better to be playing good football than not, and the Lions played very good football most of the game Saturday. But their success or failure in the postseason will come down largely to who they play and how they match up.
“This game is about matchups,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said Saturday. “So the next matchup is out at Minnesota, we got to find a way to find those (favorable matchups) just like they’re going to try to do against us and come out of there with a W. But that’s what this time of year’s about, December and certainly playoffs is about the matchups.”
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The Lions have enough matchup problems on offense to give just about anyone fits.
Gibbs is a shooting star in football form, taking handoffs at full speed and disappearing downfield in the blink of an eye. St. Brown and LaPorta are savvy space creators in the middle of the field. And even Jameson Williams gives the Lions a unique weapon with his world-class speed.
With three games left in the regular season, it’s also clear what type of matchups give the Lions trouble.
The Lions have been outscored 51-13 in the first quarter of their four losses and have had their most pronounced defensive issues against teams that can throw the ball and have mobile quarterbacks.
Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Chicago's Justin Fields had big days passing first while passing up opportunities with their legs. Seattle's Geno Smith wasn’t bad, either, with assists from receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Green Bay's Jordan Love torched the Lions’ secondary, opening the game with a 53-yard bomb. And San Diego's Justin Hebert and Keenan Allen had their way with the defense, too, though the Lions held on for a shootout of a win.
Most of those quarterbacks were buttressed by defenses with enough pass rush to make life difficult on Goff when the Lions fell into early holes.
The Lions have played three teams that entered the week with with offenses in the top 10 by DVOA, a metric that adjusts to account for the quality of opponent faced. They lost to the Ravens (fifth), split with the Packers (10th) and beat the Kansas City Chiefs (fourth) in a game in which Travis Kelce didn’t play and Patrick Mahomes’ other receivers couldn’t hold onto the ball.
The Vikings rank 15th in DVOA, though their numbers have plummeted since quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season to a torn Achilles.
Looking ahead to the playoffs, the offenses of the other three best teams in the NFC — the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles — rank in the top eight in DVOA and could be matchup nightmares for the Lions. They have competent quarterbacks, extensive talent at the skill positions and potential homefield advantages. Even worse for the Lions, at least in Dallas and San Francisco’s case, they also have the type of problem-causing defensive personnel the Lions largely lack.
That’s not to say the Lions can’t beat those teams; they’ll have a test run with the Cowboys in two weeks.
But that’s why Campbell has been so adamant — even on Saturday — his team needs to clean up its mistakes.
“We didn’t start real hot early,” he said. “We didn’t. And we can’t do that. We can’t accept that, not with where we’re going.”
For now, the Lions are going to Minnesota with a chance to win their first division title in 30 years — and first NFC North crown since the division was formed in 2002.
The Vikings (7-7) present unique challenges with a defense that’s one of the best in the NFL. They blitz a ton and often drop eight into coverage when they don’t; they’ll be playing for their playoff lives in a home game Christmas Eve.
“This is not going to be easy,” Campbell said. “Defending North champs from last year, but, man, we wouldn’t have it any other way. Go out there on the road, tough environment, man, and we got a chance to get the next one so, man, we’re going to be looking forward to it. I know I am, and I know our guys will. So, we did what we needed to do (Saturday) against a hot team to get to 10 wins and now we got to find a way to get to 11.”
Three more thoughts on the Lions with three games to go:
More matchup talk
Of the Lions’ potential first-round playoff matchups, I’d put the Los Angeles Rams atop the list of teams they'd least like to face — though there wouldn’t be any more compelling storyline in the wild-card round.
The Rams have the most accomplished quarterback of the wild-card contenders in Matthew Stafford, the ex-Lions QB who won a Super Bowl his first season in L.A. Both Stafford and Goff would be facing their old teams with plenty to prove, and Rams coach Sean McVay knows Goff and his shortcomings well.
The Rams don’t do anything exceptionally well on defense, though they do still have Aaron Donald. But following script, they have enough offensive firepower to flummox the Lions secondary and keep their foot on the gas if they get an early lead. The Rams have two good receivers and a capable running back in Kyren Williams. That’s a gem of a game waiting to happen.
As for the Lions’ other potential playoff matchups, playing the Vikings again is probably the most favorable scenario, as weird as that sounds. Minnesota’s exotic defensive looks are tough to prepare for, but their offense isn’t the same without Cousins and there’s only so many new looks they can give if the teams match up for the third time in four weeks.
There’s a danger in facing a division foe in the playoffs because the teams know each so well. Still, I’d rather play the Packers than the Seahawks if I was the Lions, given the way Seattle's offense has torched the Lions the past two years.
Formula 1
Campbell championed his team’s ability to play and win different styles of football Saturday. They have the offensive personnel to run the ball with Gibbs and David Montgomery (behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines) or throw it with Goff and St. Brown (again, behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines).
The same can’t be said about special teams and defense, however, where the Lions lack a stable kicking game —that’s why they gave Michael Badgley a shot Saturday — and are still light on playmakers.
“The only thing that’s missing for us right now is getting these turnovers in bunches, and it’s coming,” Campbell insisted Saturday. “I believe it. It’s coming. We got one today, we held on to the football, and man that’s the formula.”
As for the kicking battle, it won’t be a surprise to see Badgley get another chance this week against the Vikings. He didn’t attempt a field goal Saturday, and the Lions clearly don’t trust Riley Patterson from distance.
Frank the tank
Professional athletes are built different. The latest example: Lions center Frank Ragnow played Saturday against the Broncos a week and a half after undergoing meniscus surgery on his knee, according to his brother, Jack.
Ragnow told me last week he couldn’t play against the Bears because he “had to get a little something done” after injuring his knee in the Lions’ Week 13 win over the New Orleans Saints, but Jack Ragnow’s social media post sheds a little more light on the lengths Frank is going through to stay on the field.
Ragnow has battled a chronic toe injury for basically three seasons now. He typically sits out one practice a week and spends a chunk of his day in rehab, but he has missed just two games since the start of the 2022 season — one last year because of his toe injury and one this season with a strained calf.
I asked Ragnow about the toll the injuries have taken on him and if it makes him consider his mortality as a football player.
“That’s a deep question,” he said. “In the moment, it definitely wears on you like that, and that’s part of the injury is just kind of getting over the mental side of it, but also unfortunately I’m a veteran at it so I’m used to just get hurt, fricking attack it and get back out there. That’s my mindset.”
Ragnow, who turns 28 this offseason, has made two Pro Bowls already and has a case for a third this year. At some point, the injuries will catch up with him, but for now, he's on the field, and the Lions are a different team when he is.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions could go deep, or out early, in playoffs due to matchups
