Sizing up the American League's post-deadline playoff picture, and where the Blue Jays stand
Did Toronto or any other team move the needle enough ahead of the MLB trade deadline to alter the balance of power in the American League?
Despite a slower-than-expected pace to this year’s MLB trade deadline, several teams improved their rosters before time expired on Tuesday, especially in the American League.
The Toronto Blue Jays (currently 1.5 games up on Boston for the third wild-card spot), for example, conducted much of their business on the pitching front, acquiring relievers Jordan Hicks and Génesis Cabrera to fortify their bullpen. But they didn’t stop there, as work remained on the position player side.
With All-Star Bo Bichette expected to miss time due to a knee injury, the franchise called the St. Louis Cardinals for a third time, acquiring fellow shortstop Paul DeJong. And, according to reports, they also considered a reunion with former Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernández — which never came to be.
Toronto, however, wasn’t the only organization busy making moves before the deadline passed. Several rival competitors did so, too. Some more than others.
But did anyone move the needle enough to alter the balance of power in the American League? If so, how might it impact the Blue Jays’ playoff chances? Could they still have an opportunity to make up ground in the division?
With that in mind, let’s explore the current, post-deadline AL postseason picture with just two months remaining in the 2023 regular season.
(Editors note: All standings and stats upto date heading into the Aug. 2 slate of games)
Baltimore Orioles (1.5-game AL East lead)
Notable Additions: SP Jack Flaherty, RP Shintaro Fujinami
Stocked with a top-five prospect system in baseball, the Orioles had the luxury of making any trade they desired. No player should’ve been off-limits to them. But, rather than adding a front-line starter — their top priority — they settled for Flaherty, an impending free agent.
If this were 2019, when Flaherty was at his peak and without a lengthy injury history, it’d likely be a different story. But the 27-year-old isn’t pitching to career-highs in ERA (2.75) and fWAR (4.7). Instead, the righty owns an unflattering 4.43 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 20 starts this season.
Baltimore needed someone a bit flashier to put them over the top — like Chicago’s Dylan Cease. Even so, the club’s talented one-through-nine offense should allow them to maintain their grasp on the AL East.
Texas Rangers (0.5-game AL West lead)
Notable Additions: SP Max Scherzer, SP Jordan Montgomery, RP Aroldis Chapman, RP Chris Stratton, C Austin Hedges
Everything is bigger in Texas, right? That is certainly the case for these Rangers, who were easily among the biggest winners of this year’s trade deadline.
Not only did they add Scherzer, a proven playoff performer, but they continued to stockpile arms behind the future Hall-of-Fame starter — both in the rotation and bullpen. Hedges should also help fill the void behind home plate without Jonah Heim.
Some key injuries, plus the club’s remaining strength of schedule (.506), are reasons why FanGraphs’ model has Houston (60.8% odds) ahead of Texas (33.8%) to win the AL West. But that race is likely to come down to the wire.
Minnesota Twins (2-game AL Central lead)
Notable Addition: RP Dylan Floro
The AL Central Division is in a class of its own. Unlike its neighbouring divisions, it featured more sellers than buyers this season, although it’s not like the Twins were all that active, either.
Minnesota’s only significant trade was the Dylan Floro-Jorge López swap with the Miami Marlins, featuring two underperforming relievers. But it’s tough to fault the front office’s conservative approach, as they’re 79.3% favourites to win the division despite their minuscule lead over the second-place Cleveland Guardians.
Tampa Bay Rays (4.0-game 1st WC lead)
Notable Addition: SP Aaron Civale
After losing two-fifths of their starting rotation — Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs — to season-ending injuries, the Rays desperately needed to make a splash in the starting-pitching market, and they did precisely that by landing Civale.
It cost Tampa Bay one of its top prospects in Kyle Manzardo, though it’ll likely be well worth it as Civale joins a fearsome staff headlined by Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin. That’s a group no team will want to face when the playoffs arrive.
While the Rays no longer lead the AL East, FanGraphs still favors them (55.8%) to retake the division lead by October. But at the very least, they should control their fate in the wild card, as their 97.8% odds to make the playoffs are an AL-best.
Houston Astros (2-game 2nd WC lead)
Notable Additions: SP Justin Verlander, RP Kendall Graveman
The AL West has continuously run through Houston since the franchise captured its 2017 World Series title, and one of baseball’s current dynasties is seeking to recreate those two championship runs by re-acquiring Verlander and Graveman.
Verlander, in particular, brings renewed life to an Astros rotation that saw Framber Valdez no-hit the Guardians just hours after the trade became official. Where they fell short, however, was landing a left-handed bat to lengthen the bottom of the order versus right-handed pitching.
But that also speaks volumes about the lack of hitters available. As such, they will have to rely on the remnants of a roster that won its second World Series in six seasons last fall to hunt down their cross-state rival.
Boston Red Sox (1.5 games behind WC)
Notable Addition: UTI Luis Urías
Judging by the Red Sox’s deadline moves — or lack thereof — you probably wouldn’t have guessed they’d be 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final wild-card seed. But here they are.
Boston’s front office did little to improve the roster, unable to address a starting rotation that owns the eighth-highest ERA (4.73) in the majors and is without Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. The only player they did acquire (Urías) has played just 20 big-league games in 2023.
With a 30% chance of a playoff berth, the Red Sox are likelier to fade out of the race than they are to surge into it.
Los Angeles Angels (3 games behind WC)
Notable Additions: SP Lucas Giolito, RP Reynaldo López, RP Dominic Leone, OF Randal Grichuk, 1B C.J. Cron
The Angels’ biggest "acquisition" is, without question, the player everyone was hoping they’d trade away: Shohei Ohtani. But rather than selling, as they’ve done throughout his tenure, they pushed every last chip into the middle of the table.
Los Angeles gutted its relatively strong prospect system in exchange for five rentals. That is not smart business, especially considering their 14.5% odds to make the playoffs. A generational talent like Ohtani is worth mortgaging the future for, however, at least from owner Arte Moreno’s perspective.
This high-stakes gamble probably won’t pan out unless Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury can return from the IL with a vengeance to help support the 2023 AL MVP front-runner.
New York Yankees (3.5 games behind WC)
Notable Addition: RP Keynan Middleton
Yankees GM Brian Cashman ultimately chose the path of least resistance leading up to the trade deadline, which meant not choosing one at all. He could’ve decided to sell or even buy. But instead, he essentially opted to do neither.
Middleton, a free agent this winter, should improve New York’s already respectable bullpen, particularly with his 19.9% K-BB rate difference. At last check, though, he can’t protect superstar Aaron Judge in the lineup — a downfall that’ll likely lead to a playoff-less October for the first time since 2016.
Seattle Mariners (3.5 games behind WC)
Notable Subtractions: RP Paul Sewald, OF AJ Pollock
The Mariners ended their 21-year postseason drought last season, and they also won a round after defeating the Blue Jays in the wild-card series. This season, however, they took a rather surprising approach to the trade deadline.
Seattle sold ahead of Aug. 1, shipping away Sewald and Pollock, signalling Hernández and Ty France were likely the next to go. Only they weren’t. Instead, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided they’d be better suited to help increase the club’s slim 14.7% playoff odds.
While that course change is on brand with Dipoto’s previous unpredictable track record, it has a strong chance of ending without a second consecutive postseason berth and with Hernández departing as a free agent.
