Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Yes, your world is crumbling (Connor McDavid edition)
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website
DobberHockey back in 2005 (November 5, 2005 to be precise – 10th anniversary today!) and has been Puck Daddy's resident fantasy hockey 'expert' since 2009.
The last 48 hours have borne witness to a plethora of injuries. Connor McDavid…and thousands of torn and sprained MCL’s throughout North America and around the world as poolies take their knee-jerk reaction too far. Unkey Dobber is here to help. And while I’ve misplaced my clavicle repair kit, I can still give you some suggestions on what you can do.
• You’re in a keeper league, and you’re either middle-of-the-pack, or you’re out of it – Hold. Do not trade McDavid. He’s your franchise, you’ll have to punt your season for the greater good.
• You’re in a keeper league but you’re competing – Hold. Do not trade McDavid. Wait a few days until your emotions have calmed down and you’ve fielded a few offers. This is your franchise and if you trade him you have to be 100 percent certain that you get the win. I remember when one bonehead in my league traded a 19-year-old Crosby way too soon to take an early lead only to slide to third place by the time the season ended. Part of any package would need to be a top five guy. It’s okay to walk, accept the second, third, or fourth-place finish and go for it next year.
• You’re in a one-year league – McDavid is going to return and play this year. But will he play another 10 games or another 35? That’s the range you’re looking at. The latter number is so high because he’s young and probably heals quickly (see Kane, Patrick for details). You need to roll the dice - as will anyone in your league who makes you a trade offer. The gamble obviously being that he plays 35 more games (so 48 games on the season). It’s nice to have a point-per-game player come off your IR and play the final eight or nine weeks. But it’s almost useless to have that same player come off your IR in mid-March unless your league has a playoff component.
If you’re comfortable with risk, ride it out. Work your waiver magic for two or three months and McDavid returns in January then you’ll look like a genius. If you’re not comfortable with risk, then try to acquire two players who will help your roster and make the move quickly. The players you acquire will need to be better than what is available on the waiver wire. You’d think that last point would be obvious, but you’d be surprised. You’ll need to be creative and take players who are underachieving – is the Corey Perry owner sour on him enough that he’d rather free the roster spot for a waiver player for now…and McDavid for later? What about the Anze Kopitar owner? Nikita Kucherov? Start there and work your way down.
Once you work your way down to the 55-point players, then stop and look at the overachievers. Do any of them have a shot at continuing their strong play? Kris Versteeg, for example, could keep going and flirt with 60 points if he stays healthy. Imagine getting Versteeg and a David Savard-type to bolster your defense, for McDavid and a fringe guy. Chase it, don’t give up. McDavid still has value – 50 points in 48 games is quite doable.
Studs...
These fellas are wielding a hot stick. Take that into consideration when you go after them in trade talks...
Taylor Hall, Edmonton Oilers (6-4-8-12, plus-6, 4 PIM, 17 SOG, 4 PPPts) – The Hall – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Leon Draisaitl line combination has been deadly of late. But with the McDavid injury, there’s a chance that Draisaitl gets moved to center on the second line.
Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche (2-0-5-5, minus-1, 2 PIM, 2 SOG, 2 PPPts) – The Colorado offense seems to be waking up and Barrie is the guy they’re leaning on. Don’t pay any attention to what Francois Beauchemin is doing, that’s just an illusion.
Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues (4-1-0, 1.00 GAA, 0.962 SV%) – Allen’s been doing fantastic so coach Ken Hitchcock has been going with him. Brian Elliott sustained his regularly scheduled injury Wednesday night, so the Blues will continue to ride Allen.
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Duds...
Somebody wake these guys up – their fantasy owners are counting on them...
Michael Del Zotto, Philadelphia Flyers (8-0-0-0, minus-5, 6 PIM, 19 SOG, 0 PPPts) – Terrible. The guy gets a real chance to get his career back on track thanks to a nice two-year deal and despite getting the ice time, he does this. Del Zotto’s PP time has been getting cut lately, so he’s not going to have an easy time of getting out of it.
Elias Lindholm, Carolina Hurricanes (9-0-0-0, minus-4, 2 PIM, 11 SOG, 0 PPPts) – The lack of production has now resulted in a reduction of ice time and practically a removal from the power play. It’ll get worse before it gets better.
Anthony Duclair, Arizona Coyotes (7-1-0-1, minus-2, 0 PIM, 4 SOG, 1 PPPts) – Duclair had four goals on eight shots to start the season, so you had to know that a slowdown was forthcoming. He’ll be a real good player in the NHL, but he’s not shooting enough to give you decent production at this stage. Just four shots in the last seven games.
The Wire...
Mostly short-term grabs here, but as always some potential steals...
Michael Frolik, Calgary Flames (6%) (4-3-2-5, plus-1, 0 PIM, 11 SOG, 0 PPPts) – A streaky player. A “Windex Wonder”, if you will. Frolik’s been doing this hot/cold act for years, but when he’s on it can last for a couple of weeks. And there’s also the intrigue of his being on a new team and the thinking that maybe…just maybe, he can keep it up.
Victor Rask, Carolina Hurricanes (4%) (7-3-4-7, plus-3, 6 PIM, 19 SOG, 0 PPPts) – Rask and new linemate Kris Versteeg are red hot right now. So much so, that Eric Staal was put on their line in an effort to get him going. Yes, Rask and Versteeg are being leaned on to spark the great Eric Staal.
Ryan Murray, Columbus Blue Jackets (8%) (6-2-4-6, plus-3, 2 PIM, 7 SOG, 2 PPPts) – I’m a little surprised that Murray sits at just 8% owned in Yahoo! leagues. He’d always been rather overrated up to this point. Now that he’s actually healthy and contributing, I would have thought that poolies would be all over him.
Tomas Fleischmann, Montreal Canadiens (9%) (3-2-3-5, plus-6, 2 PIM, 8 SOG, 0 PPPts) – Guessing this will be a short-term pickup, because I don’t trust Fleischmann and neither do you. But he and David Desharnais are showing tremendous chemistry right now while Max Pacioretty (zero points in five games) tries to get going again on the top line.
Jimmy Hayes (9%) (8-3-7-10, plus-5, 2 PIM, 28 SOG, 1 PPPts) – Hayes has probably appeared in this section about 10 times over the past year. Consistently underrated with low expectations, he continues to get it done. What I like the most about his numbers is the fact that only three of his points this season have come with either David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron on the ice with him (get this info here).
Sam Bennett, Calgary Flames (9%) (4-2-4-6, even, 0 PIM, 8 SOG, 2 PPPts) – After just one point in his first seven games, I can guarantee you that thousands of his owners dropped him. Oops.
Linus Ullmark, Buffalo Sabres (6%) (2-0-0, 1.00 GAA, 0.966 SV%) – Ullmark has emerged as Buffalo’s top prospect goaltender and I’m guessing they’ll ride him a lot until Robin Lehner returns from injury.
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