Binge, Stream and Skip: Fantasy football Week 4 viewer's guide
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 4 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
MIAMI DOLPHINS at BUFFALO BILLS
A real twist: A team that scores 70 points in a game is listed in the “binge” category. The Dolphins are lapping the field in EPA per play right now — and it shows. Miami was already running the ball at an excellent clip and now has De’Von Achane as a finishing salt to layer on top.
The explosive rookie is not built like most starting backs but has the type of contact balance required to function as a true runner. The way Miami has their stretch outside run game firing right now makes Achane a perfect fit. He’s not going to repeat his Week 3 performance perhaps ever again in his career but he’s in the every-week flex consideration.
The Bills are a formidable opponent in their own right. Buffalo’s herky-jerky Week 1 outing is mostly a distant memory at this point. They’ve mostly had their way with the Raiders and Commanders the last two weeks.
Non-obvious players I like
This is a “start all your guys” game. Running backs Raheem Mostert — currently fantasy’s RB1 overall — and James Cook have shown they’ve graduated to every-week starter status. The passing games are concentrated enough that we know who we’re playing. This is a week where it’s a good idea to chase Gabe Davis’ ceiling outcomes with a 53.5-point projected total.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: First read targets on the Bills, per Fantasy Points Data: Stefon Diggs 23 (nearly 40%, fifth-most in the NFL), Gabe Davis 10, Dalton Kincaid 7, Dawson Knox 5, Deonte Hardy 5. The Bills' two-tight end experiment is trending toward something that, at least for now, is more likely to benefit the Bills' offense and not move the needle much for fantasy. Kincaid and Knox are so close when it comes to opportunity and the lack of a discernible gap between them makes it tough to trust either as a starter in fantasy. This offense still flows through Diggs and there is no reason for that to change.
Don’t be surprised if: Jaylen Waddle has his first WR1 game of the season. Waddle is off the injury report after missing last week’s scoring fest. He’s a bit better running downfield against zone than physical man coverage, which is why he had two massive games against the Bills last season.
ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Look, it’s aggressive to put the Cardinals in the “binge” bucket but this is a weird week of football. While the 49ers are doing most of the heavy lifting here, the Cardinals are proving to be somewhat solid. Arizona ranks 15th in offensive success rate and its defense has not been a total disaster, either. The acquisition of Joshua Dobbs was laughed at when it seemed he’d moonwalk into the starting job but he’s played quality reps for this team. That makes us able to try and pick our spots with some of the name-brand players, even if this is a brutal matchup against San Francisco.
Everyone still gets their laughs off at Brock Purdy's missed throws, but he ranks fifth in off-target throw rate, which trails only Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson. He’s giving them exactly what they need out of the quarterback position in this offense. It sounds like we will get Brandon Aiyuk back after missing Week 3 with a shoulder injury and Deebo Samuel is expected to played despite multiple injuries.
Non-obvious players I like
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals. Conner is like the extra-light-beer version of Raheem Mostert. He’s here for a good time but maybe not a long time. He’s been on the field for 75% of the snaps and is the only back on the roster to clear 13 opportunities so far. It’s a bad matchup but you can chase the volume at a position that’s wrecked by injuries.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Marquise Brown ranks 13th in air yards share and 14th in target share among all pass-catchers. Brown is a quality starting NFL receiver and has been getting the projected volume in this offense. With Dobbs playing well, he is an every-week WR3 for fantasy.
Don’t be surprised if: George Kittle is the TE1 overall. He garnered nine targets in Week 3 without Aiyuk compared to nine the two games prior. He still looks as explosive as ever and the Cardinals have allowed the third-most yards to tight ends and without exactly facing big-name players there every week. As Deebo showed last week, anytime one of the main guys in this offense misses time, everyone else is a locked-in top-10 play at their position. Even with Deebo expected to play, he could be limited, opening the door for more looks Kittle's way in a great matchup.
BALTIMORE RAVENS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
The two AFC North outfits will meet after quite opposite Week 3 performances. The Browns thumped the lowly Titans and watched as their quarterback enjoyed the best performance of his career with the team. Not a high bar for Deshaun Watson to clear and it was a layup matchup, but hitting the easy buttons is nevertheless important for Watson at this stage. He will not be able to build on that momentum in Week 4, as he'll be inactive with a shoulder injury. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who earned the backup job over current Cardinals starter Josh Dobbs, will get the start. DTR was electric in the preseason and improved throughout the course of his college career. He's still an obvious unknown and this offense was already in the midst of transitioning from an under-center, play-action Nick Chubb-centered offense to the shotgun-attacked Watson prefers. That's a lot to put on this entire unit. This looks like it'll be a low-scoring, slug-fest of a game against a really banged-up Ravens team.
On the other side, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense stalled out and were upset by a Colts team that was playing their backup quarterback. Whoever comes out of this matchup will have an edge in the division race, which is more open than ever with the Bengals not firing on all cylinders.
Non-obvious players I like
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens. I’d like them to expand his route tree beyond short hitch and stick routes but Flowers continues to be a volume sponge. I see no reason for that to change with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham ruled out for Sunday. Flowers’ quick separation ability will be crucial against the Browns' pass rush.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns. My level of enthusiasm is lower with Watson out but it's not as if he's been a positive force all year as it is. The volume metrics are there — 23.5% target share, 0.24 targets per route run — we just need the quarterbacks to connect with him on downfield throws. With injuries in the Baltimore secondary, Moore can get loose in this game. We'll see if DTR can find him.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Lamar Jackson ranked 18th in EPA per dropback in Week 3. I’m a little concerned we’re going to end up back in “same old Ravens territory” with this offense considering the injury situation. Jackson was certifiably fantastic in Week 2 but made mistakes amid a banged-up supporting cast in Week 3. Bateman and Beckham Jr. will miss the game. The running back room is dealing with injuries, though Justice Hill is expected to return. On the offensive live, Ronnie Stanley is doubtful, but fellow star Tyler Linderbaum got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday and is questionable.
I hope I’m wrong and we see this battleship close to full operational going forward.
Don’t be surprised if: The Browns cover the -2.5 spread even without Watson. In these types of close game situations, I almost always default to the operation that possesses an elite unit. That would be the Browns' defense. Cleveland’s stop unit may well be a top-three one in the NFL and has been one of the stories of the season thus far and will put a depleted Ravens offense into some tough situations.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at NEW YORK GIANTS
A pair of fringey NFC playoff hopefuls will meet in Week 4. The Giants have struggled for the most part this season and it's clear what the absence of Saquon Barkley means for this unit. Despite getting in some late-week practices, he is listed as doubtful.
Both the Giants and Seahawks rank bottom-five in pressure rate on the season. Daniel Jones’ line has struggled in pass protection, so this could be a get-right game. Geno Smith is quite capable of cutting up this man-coverage-heavy, overly-blitzing unit.
Non-obvious players I like
I think you’re getting pretty thin if you’re playing a Giants pass-catcher other than Darren Waller. The same is true for any Seahawks not named DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a pure bench stash at this point.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Daniel Jones adjusted yards per attempt by week: 0.5, 8.5, 2.9. One of these things is not like the other. Jones has played two of the three best defenses in the NFL so far. When he went against a more average Cardinals unit, he put together a strong overall outing that was boosted by a dynamic second-half eruption. The Giants' offense is going to be shaky but I think the struggles of Jones as a fantasy quarterback are overall overstated thanks to difficult competition.
Don’t be surprised if: We continue to see more of Zach Charbonnet. The rookie has now run the same amount of routes and has an identical target figure to Kenneth Walker the last two weeks despite playing 26 fewer snaps. His role is being clearly carved out. Look for that to continue, especially when the Seahawks get into hurry-up, pass-friendly situations. Kenneth Walker can still be a big-time fantasy starter in this situation, and this is a great matchup for him, but his ceiling will be capped if Charbonnet continues to expand his offerings.
STREAM
ATLANTA FALCONS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
In an ideal world, these two teams would find their way into the first group. I’m punishing them and placing them here for being a bit too weird this season.
Perfect example for the Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence’s 8.0% dropped pass rate leads all starting quarterbacks but he trails only Tua Tagovailoa in accuracy rate (Fantasy Points Data). Silly mistakes and miscues have kept the Jaguars from reaching their ceiling offensively. Also, Doug Pederson not being involved in the play-calling — but that’s a story for another time.
Jacksonville is too talented to not get right at some point. Calvin Ridley should be all the way dialed in to face his former team and four weeks is more than enough time to shake off some of the rust.
“Weird” certainly does a good job describing the Falcons offense. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were stuffed last week against the Lions' underrated run defense. Don’t expect that to happen again. Robinson is a mismatch in coverage against the Jags linebackers and could get home with a few big receptions.
Non-obvious players I like
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars. Zay Jones will miss another game. Any time we can clear Jones from the equation, Kirk is a near must-start WR3.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The Falcons rank fourth in sack rate allowed and rank 23rd in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency. Quietly, the offensive line’s performance in pass protection has been one of the biggest disappointments in Atlanta’s first three games. Desmond Ridder is not going to deal with pressure well. Luckily, the Jaguars' pass rush has been a source of public frustration in Pederson’s press conferences. This matchup should be a good one for your Falcons' passing-game players.
Famous last words!
Don’t be surprised if: Travis Etienne finishes as a top-five running back. Tank Bigsby has been frustrating around the goal line but Etienne rarely leaves the field otherwise. He has a 68.9% share of the team carries and an 8.3% share of the targets. The Falcons rank 22nd in rushing success rate allowed.
CINCINNATI BENGALS at TENNESSEE TITANS
The Bengals broke their winless march on Monday but I remain concerned about their offense. Joe Burrow’s completion rate over expected ranks 34th among all quarterbacks so far. He was completely unable to push the ball downfield against the Rams and is confined to being a pocket statue. It’s hard to see these problems getting better as long as Burrow continues to play through the calf injury.
It’s also hard to be too concerned considering the pass-funnel nature of the Titans' defense. Tennessee ranks fourth in rushing success rate allowed and 29th in dropback success rate.
Non-obvious players I like
None.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Tennessee ranks 31st in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency. If you can’t defend the pass or protect your quarterback it’s going to be tough to be a good team in the modern NFL. That’s the spot the Titans find themselves in. The performance of this line is putting a damper on the production of everyone in this offense.
Don’t be surprised if: Tyjae Spears out-snaps Derrick Henry. We’ve already seen this happen in negative game script performances this season. The secondary and offensive line issues will be present throughout and coupled with Henry being on the injury report in Week 4, we could see plenty of Spears.
LOS ANGELES RAMS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I can see this game turning in either direction. We could get a high-scoring affair with two offenses that play fast and have, overall, exceeded expectations so far. I can also see these units slowing down as the Rams deal with offensive line injuries and the Colts dial back Anthony Richardson’s rushing role in his first game back off a concussion.
The Rams are particularly difficult to read. When offensive line injuries hit on Monday night against the Bengals, it immediately started to feel like we were watching the 2022 Rams offense again. Matthew Stafford was pummeled into the dirt over and over. The Colts quietly have 12 sacks on the young season, trailing only the Steelers.
Non-obvious players I like
Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams. The Colts' perimeter cornerback play remains a weakness for this team. Atwell has run over 60% of his routes from the outside. Puka Nacua can get in another big performance as the outlet receiver but Atwell is on the flex radar.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Josh Downs has a 20% share of the first-read targets in Indy. That’s behind Michael Pittman but he ranks 12th in first read target-share league-wide (36.3%). So this shows that Downs has grabbed a strong hold over the No. 2 gig. Downs is an excellent separator and was one of my favorite prospects from this year’s wide receiver class. His emergence should continue for the Colts.
Don’t be surprised if: Zack Moss continues to operate as a league-winning running back. Jonathan Taylor is supposed to return soon but apparently still does not want to play for the Colts. This saga is far from settled and it’s no lock Taylor suits up for this team in Week 5 (or ever again). Don’t be so quick to toss Moss aside.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The optimism around Washington’s 2-0 start was almost completely erased in a matter of a few hours following a dreadful 37-3 loss at the hands of the Bills last week. When your starting quarterback takes nine sacks and throws four interceptions, it puts everything into question. Sam Howell needs a rebound game in the worst way, but going into Philadelphia is hardly the best-case scenario, even if the Eagles' defense isn’t as healthy or performing at the same level as last season. Eric Bieniemy could stand to simplify this offense a bit for Howell and put in some more first-read looks for easy separators like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson just to get Howell in a better rhythm.
The Eagles are 3-0 while clearly not firing at max capacity just yet. That’s about the best place you can be as an NFL team. The passing game’s mildly slow start has had a statistical impact, though. The star wide receivers have traded big weeks to start the year but there hasn’t been much to trickle down to Dallas Goedert, who has just 11 catches for 63 yards through two games.
Goedert is too good and this unit is too strong overall for it to remain this way forever but he’s feeling the impact of the stumble out of the gates most of all. The Commanders’ defense is legitimately good, especially up front in the pass rush, so we may need to wait another week to see the passing game at the height of its power.
Non-obvious players I like
D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles. Among backs with 10-plus carries, Swift ranks fourth in zone concept success rate (behind only Ekeler, Chubb, Achane) and has a 100% success rate on his three-man/gap runs, per Fantasy Points Data. Swift has been nothing short of fantastic as a runner the last two games but we can also acknowledge he’s taking advantage of some cavernous holes behind the best offensive line in the league. I don’t even know how much longer he will be non-obvious.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Sam Howell leads the NFL in turnover-worthy pass rate (FPD), he also ranks third in pressures converted to sacks and 34th in adjusted net yards per attempt. When you’re merely a former Day 3 draft pick, those types of numbers get you on the benched radar. Especially when the team paid decent money to a “steady hand” type of backup in Jacoby Brissett. There have been times where I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Howell but his painfully slow internal clock and mistakes could end up costing him this chance.
Don’t be surprised if: Brian Robinson gets phased out again. Both things can be true: Robinson is the best back on the Commanders roster and the coaching staff rightly favors him and he’s not a true bell-cow back. Last week, as the Bills took it to Washington, we saw Antonio Gibson out-snap Robinson 32 to 19 and run 20 more routes. Robinson is still overall a valuable fantasy player but we now know this is in the range of outcomes. Playing the game script guessing game is always a dicey proposition but a spot like this, where Washington is an 8.5-point road underdog, should set off some alarm bells.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
A pair of 0-3 teams meet in a game that’s sure to matter much more for fantasy than in the real world. Kirk Cousins is operating an absolute warship for fake football right now. The Vikings defense keeps the other team in the game and Cousins has to push the ball to try and keep pace. The offense is highly concentrated between four guys. It’s just such a perfect setup. We’ll be chasing this scoring unit as long as it looks like this.
The Panthers face more dire questions on their offense and frankly are the reason this game isn’t in the “binge” section. It doesn’t necessarily mean much long-term but it sure doesn’t feel great that Andy Dalton, while facing a near identical pressure rate to Bryce Young (43.6% to 42%, per Fantasy Points Data) more than doubled the rookie's deep-throw rate (12.1% to 5.6%). Young will return to the lineup this week after being inactive in Week 3. Hopefully, the Panthers can continue to work to get the best out of him.
Non-obvious players I like
Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers. He hasn’t been mega effective with the looks but Sanders is tied with Kyren Williams for the most targets at the running back position. He also holds a strong 63% share of the Panthers' rush attempts. This is a good matchup against the Vikings (keep in mind, however, Sanders is dealing with a groin injury but is expected to play).
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings. You can almost copy and paste the above analysis for Mattison, who trails Sanders by one target on the season. We’ll see when/if Cam Akers begins to eat into his rushing workload but for now, you can still chase the volume in a favorable spot for Mattison.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Justin Jefferson has run the most routes in the NFL, K.J. Osborn has run the second-most routes in the NFL, T.J. Hockenson has run the eighth-most and Jordan Addison sits at 16th. No other receiver or tight end on the roster has run more than 25 routes. This is why this team is a warship. Addison and Osborn are obviously more volatile than the top two guys in the attack but nevertheless, they make solid fill-in plays any given week because they’re on the field so much.
Don’t be surprised if: Adam Thielen has another big week. The veteran receiver entered the year with a bum ankle and that clearly impacted his Week 1 performance. In the last two games, Thielen has averaged 2.26 yards per route run and has a 30.7% share of the Panthers’ air yards. He’s operated as Carolina's clear top receiver, just as it appeared he would. The Vikings have been playing some pretty passive coverage this season so Thielen can have himself a nice little revenge game in Week 4.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS at HOUSTON TEXANS
Only a true sicko, like me, would keep this game out of the skip category. That said, if you aren’t excited by what you’re seeing from C.J. Stroud so far, you don’t know ball. Stroud leads all quarterbacks in yards on throws between 10 and 19 yards. He’s been money in the intermediate area and he’s done so in non-advantageous situations with a banged-up pass protection unit. The Steelers' pass rush and T.J. Watt are going to put that offensive line through the mill on Sunday but Stroud has shown he can handle it.
On the flip side, we got some more encouraging signs from the Steelers in Week 3 for the first time this season. The running game remains a huge issue, however, for a variety of reasons. The offensive line isn't far behind the run game and Matt Canada’s offense continues to be as stale as ever. Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are averaging fewer than 0.9 yards before contact.
Both of these running games are stuck in the mud so despite Harris and Dameon Pierce being the first players drafted from their respective teams, we’re looking elsewhere for value in this spot.
Non-obvious players I like
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers. Pickens is the clear top dog in the passing game without Diontae Johnson in the mix. He’s been targeted on 27% of his routes the last two games and has a near 40% share of the air yards. The Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary so you are once again clear to chase Pickens' ceiling.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Kenny Pickett ranked seventh among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback in Week 3, 32nd in Week 2 and 29th in Week 1. Pickett is suffering the same fate as Daniel Jones (outline above) where he’s run into two of the three best defenses in the NFL to start the season. The 49ers and Browns stuffed this unit into a locker, but while it wasn’t perfect, Pickett and the Steelers looked much better against a softer opponent last week in Las Vegas. Houston ranks 21st in defensive success rate.
Don’t be surprised if: Both Texans outside receivers have big games in Week 4. The Steelers are a great defense but they have one clear vulnerability. They have been stung by outside receivers through three weeks. Brandon Aiyuk got them for 129 yards and two scores in Week 1, Amari Cooper reached 90 yards on seven catches and Davante Adams erupted for 172 yards with two scores in Week 3, with Jakobi Meyers adding 85 yards on seven catches.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell run 78.5% and 72.4%, respectively, of their routes from the outside.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
These 1-2 AFC teams will face off in a game that, if Jimmy Garoppolo had passed concussion protocol and played, may well have belonged in the “binge” tier purely for fantasy purposes. Both offenses rank inside the top six in dropback success rate.
The Raiders run a delightfully concentrated attack. The targets almost exclusively flow to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. As they should. We all know Adams is elite but Meyers is one of the most underrated players in the NFL and should remain a volume sponge in this offense. Rookie Aidan O’Connell appears to be the most likely candidate to start with Garoppolo out. He was electric in the preseason and has a great group to work with here. It doesn’t hurt that he faces a Chargers defense that can’t do anything right and will be without some name-brand players.
The Chargers aren’t nearly as concentrated but have been impactful as one of the best passing units overall. The big question we must ask is what happens to the receiver rotation here with Mike Williams now bound for IR. For now, Joshua Palmer will likely step into Williams’ X-receiver spot. Palmer has run 80 routes on the year compared to a mere 36 for developmental Round 1 pick Quentin Johnston. The rookie may have his day at some point and could very well be a massive winner in the second half of the season, but we haven’t seen it yet. Also, don’t ignore the tight ends taking a small step forward. Gerald Everett and Donald Parham have run 52 and 46 routes on the season, respectively.
Non-obvious players I like
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers. Palmer doesn’t profile as a future superstar and he’s more of a functional No. 3 receiver than anything else. However, I’d contend he fits much better as Williams’ replacement than when he was asked to step into Keenan Allen’s role early last season.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders. Read what I said above and see why I don’t think Meyers belongs in the non-obvious category. I love this guy’s game.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The Raiders rank 14th in run-blocking grades and fifth in pass-block grades per PFF. I was astonished to see this because my contention watching the game live is that Josh Jacobs was struggling to find running room. The lack of explosive runs does perhaps fall at his feet. Overall, I think Jacobs is just knocking off rust after missing the entire offseason but if he doesn’t bust the slump against this moribund Chargers defense, then we can worry.
Don’t be surprised if: The Chargers get their run game going. It’s been a bit of a fluke that the Chargers haven’t established much of a run game in the last two weeks. They faced the vaunted Titans run stop unit in Week 2 and last week, the Vikings blitzed Herbert on an insane 82% of his dropbacks. As such, the running backs had to stay in to pass-block more than usual and no smart coordinator is going to ask his running backs to run into the teeth of a blitz-happy front too often.
Unfortunately, it's looking less likely that we'll see Austin Ekeler suit up for this game as he's listed as doubtful. That means Joshua Kelley will get another chance to show what he can do in a featured role.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Weird game and I barely put it in “stream” as it is. Much of the oxygen will be spent on the Ezekiel Elliott revenge spot for the long-time Cowboys icon as he returns to Dallas. It’s worth noting that Elliott is coming off his best game so far with New England but Rhamondre Stevenson still had three more carries than the vet and owned a 13.8% target share. Bill Belichick seems like the last coach to lean into a performative revenge game narrative with his player usage.
The Cowboys have their issues to solve after getting taken to school by the Arizona Cardinals last week. The loss of multiple starting offensive linemen and star corner Trevon Diggs took a massive toll. The former issue could get better with some time, even starting this week, but Diggs is out for the season. The defense is talented enough to recover and this game against a decidedly average at best New England passing unit allows them to tee off.
Non-obvious players I like
None. You can play Hunter Henry from the Patriots passing game but he’s a pretty locked-in tight end anyway. Otherwise, I wouldn’t go too deep in the pool for plays from a potentially low-scoring contest.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Cowboys rank sixth in dropback EPA and eighth in rushing EPA but that goodness has not translated to the red zone:
The Cowboys rank dead last in rushing yards over expectation in red zone the last 2 weeks, per Next Gen Stats (and trusty analytics pal @FourVerts).
Related: This week they’ll play against Zeke, who had 12 red-zone TDs in 21 & 12 in 22.
Let’s explain👇🏽https://t.co/Azp6B91D8o— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) September 27, 2023
Having some of their offensive linemen back healthy can help solve some of the red zone rushing woes. My issue is more with the passing game. Mike McCarthy has long been known to put himself into a brain pretzel down in the scoring areas. You have CeeDee Lamb; no need to get cute. Lamb has a mere 16.7% share of the team’s target down inside the 10-yard line. Get him isolated against a corner on the outside and ask him to go win … because he can.
Don’t be surprised if: This game goes under the 45.5-point opening total. It’s already been bet down to 43.5. The Cowboys' offense has been solid but hasn’t been able to push the scoreboard yet and New England’s defense is still rock-solid. Also, I’d bet the Cowboys' prideful defense wants to come out and deliver a show-stopping performance after getting trounced last week. The Patriots make for a fine opponent to do just that.
SKIP
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW YORK JETS
I find it morally reprehensible to place Patrick Mahomes in the “skip” section for two straight weeks but this is simply too much to bear. Zach Wilson ranks 34th in EPA per play, so … newly signed free agent quarterback Trevor Siemian to the rescue? Siemian does have starting experience and has given a handful of teams acceptable quarterback play throughout his career. What the Jets are getting out of Wilson is anything but “acceptable” and the displeasure from the locker room is already getting out into the open.
The Chiefs' defense has been ferocious ever since Chris Jones got back into action. This is not a soft landing spot for Wilson and as long as he’s out there operating at this level, it makes Garrett Wilson a depressed floor-and-ceiling play, and everyone else virtually unstartable without any confidence.
Non-obvious players I like
Ultimately, this is why I dropped the game down to skip after having it in “stream” for the podcast section. There are very few plays I like in this game with the Jets' offense being what it is and their defense formidable enough to keep the Chiefs from completely rolling. Skyy Moore tied Travis Kelce for the team lead in routes run and drew six targets last week. He’d be the lone receiver I’d consider as a flex. I want to see if Rashee Rice continues to earn playing time after some strong garbage time moments. But again, I’m more throwing these out for investigatory reasons rather than actionable advice.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Per Fantasy Points Data, Isiah Pacheco ranks 18th among running backs in expected fantasy points. Slowly but surely, it seems that Pacheco is taking a stronger lead in this backfield. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes so far this season and has run more total routes than Jerick McKinnon. If this holds up, Pacheco will be an every-week RB2 in fantasy football.
Don’t be surprised if: Your favorite sportswriter is losing their mind about all the Taylor Swift references in this game. Sorry, she’s one of the most famous people on planet Earth and carries 100x the notoriety of any football player in that stadium. You’re going to have to deal with this one. So meditate, find your inner peace, or just, you know, grow up a little so you don’t get bothered by it.
The only thing that may be able to combat Swift popping up every other play on the broadcast is if Aaron Rodgers, who is itching to show up to this game if he gets medically cleared to do so, finds his way onto the sideline. Hope all that helps … and shows you the state of this matchup right now.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
It does look like Derek Carr will start despite dealing with a shoulder injury that seemed like it would mean a multi-week absence. It's a surprising development, so definitely keep an eye on the inactives for this game to confirm. If Carr does play, it's a good thing for the stability of this offense despite fantasy managers loving Jameis Winston because he pushes the ball down the field. I refuse to be gaslit into the notion that Winston would be an upgrade for the offensive projections in New Orleans. He ranked 25th in EPA per play among Week 3 quarterbacks.
We got a middling performance out of Baker Mayfield in Week 3. We’ve yet to see his true downside. I’m a little concerned it could come in this game in a hostile road environment against a Saints defense that’s playing at an extremely high level on the back end.
The quarterback situation is what makes this game so hard to project. Theoretically, I’m sure others would imagine this game could have quickly turned into a shootout with Winston and Mayfield. But with Carr's expected early return, he will likely less than 100%, giving the Saints reason to be a bit more conservative offensively. Also, these aren’t the Saints of old. This coaching staff has no issues leaning the run-heavy, slow-paced approach. Most critically, I believe this defense is playing at too high of a level to allow Mayfield a path to one of is ceiling games.
Non-obvious players I like
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints. Thomas is out there and looks pretty solid as a short to intermediate-possession receiver. He doesn’t separate like he once did but still has vice-grip hands in tight coverage.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Among the top 20 running backs in rush yards, Rachaad White has the second fewest percentage of his carries to go for five-plus yards. White has had one big game against the Bears' unserious defense but has otherwise been stuck in the mud.
Don’t be surprised if: Alvin Kamara returns to a huge workload. Unlike some of the holdout running backs there’s not likely to be any easing in with Kamara, who participated all offseason with the Saints. With Jamaal Williams on IR and rookie Kendre Miller not seizing his chances last week, it’s been about as good of a runout as you could have hoped for if you drafted Kamara in fantasy.
DENVER BRONCOS at CHICAGO BEARS
A team that’s fresh off allowing an embarrassing 70 points and still may not be the worst outfit in this game? The skip section was made for this type of contest.
Chicago’s offense is in an utter state of misery and there’s little to no reason to expect them to climb out of it at this point. Denver’s offense hasn’t been a huge issue so far, though it’s far from a needle-mover. Wilson has been scattershot once we get out of the scripted plays. The backfield and wide receiver rooms don’t have a clear lead dog. That makes for difficult units to project.
Non-obvious players I like
Chicago Bears running backs. After the Broncos just got run over by the Dolphins, it’s worth considering Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Obviously we’re dealing with an offense on the other side of the firepower scale and these two split snaps 28 to 22 in favor of Herbert last week. They are both boom/bust, deeper flex plays but are at least on the radar after Denver’s recent efforts.
STAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: DJ Moore owns a 15.9% target share so far this season, tied with Cole Kmet for the team lead. This is by far the most disappointing part of the Bears' acquisition of Moore. The Bears apparently made Moore a “must include” when pushing the Panthers for the No. 1 overall pick trade package. And yet, there have been very few designed looks for him or efforts to funnel him targets. Moore isn’t an elite player and I don’t mean to suggest he’s been perfect this season. However, this is just the reality of the situation in Chicago.
Don’t be surprised if: We see more of Marvin Mims Jr. Broncos beat writer Cecil Lammey hinted that the Broncos may be making some personnel changes in the receiver room. I don’t necessarily think that means Mims is going to start over Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy but it could mean he runs out as the clear third receiver this week. He’s simply been too explosive for this struggling team to keep on the bench.
