Betting The Women's World Cup: Group Talk
An expanded field of 32 teams take to the pitch in Australia and New Zealand beginning later this week in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. The United States (+240) is the favorite and two-time defending champs. The United States’ women have dominated this tournament since its inception winning five of the seven World Cups. The defense of their title and pursuit of Cup No. 6 begins Friday at 9P ET against Vietnam.
Unlike previous World Cups, this year the United States has a fair amount of company atop the odds board.
Make no mistake. Team USA is still the team to beat, but the sport has made major strides in Europe and the odds reflect that as England (+430), Spain (+550), Germany (+750), and France (+1100) are also strong contenders for the title.
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) discussed the tournament with Sebastian Salazar of ESPN on Bet the EDGE earlier this week. They broke down the tournament and talked favorites, dark horses, and long shots.
Let’s run through each group in the order we believe they will finish with a thought or two on each. Listed for each is their FIFA world ranking as well as their odds to win the Group and their odds to win the World Cup.
Group A
Norway
FIFA Rank: 12
Odds to Win the Group: -300
Odds to Win the World Cup: +4000
One of only four nations to win a Women’s World Cup, Norway was the presumed powerhouse of the Group until a resounding 8-0 loss at the 2022 Euros to England in the Group Stage. Norway should still win this Group, though, thanks to the return of Ada Hegerberg to the national team.
New Zealand
FIFA Rank: 26
Odds to Win the Group: +500
Odd to Win the World Cup: +19000
New Zealand has now qualified for the last five World Cups and six of the eight, but they have never won a game on the world stage (0-12-3). That said, the draw could not have been more favorable. The Football Ferns, however, have won just one of their last 11 matches. Two of those ten losses were to the United States by a combined score of 9-0.
Switzerland
FIFA Rank: 20
Odds to Win the Group: +475
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
Making their second appearance at the World Cup, Switzerland will be looking to escape the Group Stage and reach the Round of 16 as they did in their inaugural appearance in 2015. Led by the trio of Ana-Maria Crnogorcevic, Lia Walti, and Ramona Bachmann, the Swiss will be disappointed should they fail to advance past the Group Stage.
Philippines
FIFA Rank: 44
Odds to Win the Group: +50000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
This is a weak group, and this is the weakest squad in the group. The Philippines are making their World Cup debut and are the lowest-ranked Asian nation.
Group B
Australia
FIFA Rank: 10
Odds to Win the Group: -200
Odds to Win the World Cup: +900
Home field advantage may be just what Australia needs to make a deep run in this tournament. Sam Kerr leads an attack that can score goals. Tony Gustavsson, former U.S. assistant coach oversees this Australian club that just missed the podium at the 2020 Olympics finishing fourth.
Canada
FIFA Rank: 7
Odds to Win the Group: +195
Odds to Win the World Cup: +3400
The defending Olympic champions, Canada will be looking to end the international career of Christine Sinclair on a high note. The 40-year-old is international soccer’s all-time leading scorer. She leads an otherwise young team onto the world stage with the goal of proving Olympic Gold was the beginning of a run of contending for trophies at the International level.
Ireland
FIFA Rank: 22
Odds to Win the Group: +1600
Odds to Win the World Cup: +10000
This is Ireland’s first appearance at the World Cup. In fact, this nation has never even qualified for the Olympics or Euros. Can they compete at the global level?
Nigeria
FIFA Rank: 40
Odds to Win the Group: +3000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
The Nigerians have qualified for every World Cup. They will look to build on their appearance in the Round of 16 four years ago. Will grumblings about a lack of support from the Nigerian government be a distraction or galvanize the team and push them through to the knockout stage?
Group C
Spain
FIFA Rank: 6
Odds to Win the Group: -650
Odds to Win the World Cup: +550
The women of Spain are poised to make a deep run if they have moved past some internal strife in their locker room. Spain is led by arguably the best player on the planet, Alexia Putellas. The back-to-back Ballon d’Or winner has been cleared to play following an ACL injury that kept her sidelined for Euros.
Japan
FIFA Rank: 11
Odds to Win the Group: +450
Odds to Win the World Cup: +3400
In the past year leading up to the World Cup, Japan has enjoyed wins over Canada and Portugal but sandwiched around those wins were losses to Team USA, Brazil, and Denmark. Despite an uneven 2023, Yui Hasegawa and the Japanese should advance to the Knockout Stage without much of a sweat.
Zambia
FIFA Rank: 77
Odds to Win the Group: +5000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
The lowest-ranked team in this year’s World Cup, Zambia could surprise Japan or Spain as their form of late has been quite impressive. They qualified for the Olympics for the first time in 2021, finished third in the most recent Africa Cup of Nations, and then after tying Switzerland in early June they upset Germany 3-2. Expect goals at both ends as Zambia goes up and down the field.
Costa Rica
FIFA Rank: 36
Odds to Win the Group: +50000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
Costa Rica is in its second World Cup and for the second time they are in a group with Spain. They actually finished on top of the Spaniards in group play in 2015 but doing so in 2023 is not likely. Gaining at least a single point against either Spain or Japan is a must if Costa Rica is to have any hope of advancing approaching their final game in group play against Zambia.
Group D
England
FIFA Rank: 4
Odds to Win the Group: -2500
Odds to Win the World Cup: +430
The draw looks difficult for England especially considering how banged up the champions of Europe are. Leah Williamson, Beth Mead, and Fran Kirby are all out injured. The offensive load fairly or unfairly will fall onto the shoulders of Alessia Russo. She was the team’s second-leading scorer at Euros, but she will draw more attention from her opponents than she has in the past. Expectations are high for England and they should win the Group, but it is not an easy path for a deep run.
Denmark
FIFA Rank: 13
Odds to Win the Group: +1000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +8000
This is Denmark’s first World Cup appearance since 2007. Their push to advance beyond the Group Stage may well come down to how they do in their first game. The Danes face China in what looks to be a battle for second place in the group and a spot in the knockout stage. Pernille Harder is the face of Denmark’s team and frankly, one of the faces of international soccer. The 30-year-old captain of the Danish team, Harder is a two-time winner of UEFA’s player of the year honors.
China
FIFA Rank: 14
Odds to Win the Group: +2800
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
China has not advanced past the quarterfinals in its last four appearances at the World Cup. The expectation is that streak will continue as they have gone winless in their last seven matches against teams who have qualified for this year’s World Cup.
Haiti
FIFA Rank: 53
Odds to Win the Group: +10000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
Qualifying for their first-ever World Cup is a massive achievement for this nation. The next step is looking to secure a World Cup point. That is unlikely simply because their opponents at every stop in the Group stage are Top 20 programs in the world with World Cup experience.
Group E
USA
FIFA Rank: 1
Odds to Win the Group: -350
Odds to Win the World Cup: +240
There is a growing feeling the world is gaining on the United States, but this team remains a heavy favorite to win a third consecutive World Cup and sixth Cup overall. This team is a blend of former greats and soon to be greats as Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe give way to 21-year-old Trinity Rodman and 18-year-old Alyssa Thompson.
Netherlands
FIFA Rank: 9
Odds to Win the Group: +250
Odds to Win the World Cup: +2300
Runners-up to the United States in 2019, the Netherlands is seeking revenge in 2023 but is doing so without their all-time leading scorer, Vivianne Miedema (ACL). The Netherlands should, however, still advance out of the Group Stage thanks in large part to the play of Lieke Martens.
Portugal
FIFA Rank: 21
Odds to Win the Group: +3000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +10000
Portugal will be making their first appearance in the World Cup. They do so in a difficult group. They will need to play for and somehow earn a point against either the United States or the Netherlands in order to advance to the Knockout Stage.
Vietnam
FIFA Rank: 32
Odds to Win the Group: +50000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
The challenge for the Vietnamese team is similar to the challenges facing Portugal. To advance to the Knockout Stage, they need to gain a point against the giants in the group, defeat Portugal, and also not get blown out of any games as goal differential would come into play should they achieve steps 1 and 2. That said, achieving step 1 is a mammoth ask of the World Cup debutante.
Group F
Brazil
FIFA Rank: 8
Odds to Win the Group: +150
Odds to Win the World Cup: +3200
Marta is back for a 6th attempt to claim the Cup. She and her teammates blitzed the field at Copa America scoring 20 goals without giving up one enroute to winning all six games and giving Pia Sundhage (former U.S. National Coach) her first trophy as coach of Brazil. They will battle France for the top spot in the Group which is expected to be of major importance as the second-place team will likely have to face Germany in the knockout round.
France
FIFA Rank: 5
Odds to Win the Group: -200
Odds to Win the World Cup: +1300
One of the favorites to lift the trophy at the end of the tournament, Wendie Renard and co. should advance out of the Group Stage with relative ease. Assuming their recent form holds, the French under the stewardship of Herve Renard (hired in March) are threats to reach their first World Cup Final.
Jamaica
FIFA Rank: 43
Odds to Win the Group: +4000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
Jamaica is the first Caribbean country to make consecutive appearances at the World Cup. Khadija Shaw scored 31 goals in 30 games with Manchester City this past season. She will need to be at least that good if Jamaica is to pull the upset and qualify for the Knockout Stage.
Panama
FIFA Rank: 52
Odds to Win the Group: +25000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
There are zero expectations for Panama at this World Cup. Simply qualifying for their first Cup was a massive win for this nation.
Group G
Sweden
FIFA Rank: 3
Odds to Win the Group: -550
Odds to Win the World Cup: +1800
This is a veteran team favored to advance out of the Group stage but know they have struggled of late. Sweden followed up an embarrassing 4-0 loss to England in the Euro 2022 semis with draws against Germany and Norway and a loss to Denmark earlier this year. They need to find their form and win this Group as the second-place finisher more than likely draws the United States in the knockout round.
Italy
FIFA Rank: 16
Odds to Win the Group: +500
Odds to Win the World Cup: +10000
A favorable draw offers a path to the Knockout Round, but know this Italian team mustered just a single point in the 2022 Euros. With a revamped roster the Italians qualified for the World Cup and appear to be rounding into better form. Manuela Giugliano runs this team from her midfield position. Another name to know is 16-year-old Giulia Dragoni who has been dubbed “Little Messi”.
Argentina
FIFA Rank: 28
Odds to Win the Group: +1600
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
Team Argentina will be playing in their fourth World Cup and yet are still seeking their first win. Getting it this year will be difficult. Advancing out of this Group is an exponentially more difficult task. A reason for optimism may be their goaltender Correa. She is playing in her fourth World Cup and is aware she will be consistently pressured over the course of a match. If she is brilliant, Argentina may get that elusive first win.
South Africa
FIFA Rank: 54
Odds to Win the Group: +6500
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
South Africa earned their spot in only their second World Cup by virtue of winning the 2022 Africa Cup of Nations. Definite underdogs in the group but the speed of the South Africans including Thembi Kgatlana and Jermaine Seoposenwe may catch an opponent napping and offer an opportunity for an upset.
Group H
Germany
FIFA Rank: 2
Odds to Win the Group: -1550
Odds to Win the World Cup: +750
The clear favorite of this Group, Germany is one of only two nations to have won at least two World Cups. The Euro 2022 Finalists will be looking to avenge their early exit from World Cup 2019 (quarterfinals). Their lead-up to this tournament has seen mixed results with victories over France and the United States but setbacks to the United States and Brazil. Game 1 against Morocco is pivotal.
Morocco
FIFA Rank: 72
Odds to Win the Group: +15000
Odds to Win the World Cup: +43000
The first Arab team to ever qualify for the Women’s World Cup, it is doubtful the women experience the success achieved by the men’s team (semis at the 2022 World Cup), but there is momentum behind this team thanks to a stingy and disciplined defense. A date in the Knockout Stage is possible especially if they can steal a point or more against the Germans in their first game.
Colombia
FIFA Rank: 25
Odds to Win the Group: +1100
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
Back on the world stage after not Qualifying in 2019, the Columbians are decided underdogs despite winning their final six friendlies leading up to this World Cup. To be competitive, 18-year-old Linda Caicedo will need to excel with the weight of the country squarely on her shoulders.
South Korea
FIFA Rank: 17
Odds to Win the Group: +1800
Odds to Win the World Cup: +19000
This team has won one game in their history at the World Cup. Head Coach Colin Bell has instituted a high pressing attack that is in stark contrast to previous Korean teams. One interesting roster note for Korea: American-born Casey Phair suiting up for Korea (American-born father and Korean-born mother) is the youngest of four 16-year-olds in this World Cup.
Enjoy the 2023 Women’s World Cup.
Enjoy Bet the EDGE throughout the World Cup.
Enjoy the sweat.
