Betting trends in LSU’s recent history with Mississippi State
Mississippi State is LSU’s longest-running rival. The two first met in 1896, and LSU won 52-0. Saturday will be the 117th meeting and LSU leads the series 74-36-3.
Games from 127 years ago probably aren’t that relevant to what happens this week, so here, we’ll take a look at the more recent history of this rivalry.
LSU sits as a 9.5-point favorite right now with the game total at 54. Considering it’s a road game, that’s a pretty wide margin. There hasn’t been much movement there either.
Here are some recent betting trends involving LSU and Mississippi State that could be of use this weekend.
LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against Mississippi State
The Tigers have fared well against the spread here in recent years.
LSU entered the game last year as a underdog at home and came away with a 15-point win, outperforming the spread by 18 points.
LSU squeaked it out two years ago, winning by three after entering as a 1.5 point favorite on the road.
The lone cover for Mississippi State in this span came in 2020, when MSU won by 10 despite being a 14.5 point underdog against the defending national champions.
Over the last 10 meetings, it’s an even 5-5 against the spread.
LSU 0-4-1 ATS away from home under Brian Kelly
Brian Kelly’s LSU has played five games as a favorite away from Tiger Stadium. The Tigers haven’t covered any of those spreads in that span.
The push came last year when LSU was a three-point favorite over Arkansas and won 13-10.
The most egregious of losses in this category came against Texas A&M last year. LSU was a 10-point favorite but lost by 15 points.
Outside of the win at Florida last year, LSU’s offense has been sluggish without the support and comfort of Tiger Stadium.
The Tigers will try and flip that script on the road this week.
LSU is 3-2 ATS last five games in Starkville
While LSU’s struggled away from home under Kelly, the Tigers have been OK in their last five trips to Starkville.
LSU is 3-2 ATS and 4-1 SU in this span.
The two ATS losses came in 2015 and 2017. LSU entered the 2015 game as a 3.5 point favorite, but only won 21-19.
2017 was uglier. LSU was a 7.5 point favorite but lost by 30 points. It’s still one of the worst performances in program history.
MSU 1-7 ATS in last eight as home underdog
Mississippi State hasn’t fared well recently as a home underdog. The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a home dog.
However, the one cover in that span came in the final regular season game of 2022 against Ole Miss.
But a couple of weeks prior, MSU was blown out when hosting Georgia, failing to cover a 16-point spread.
In 2021, State entered the Alabama game as a 17-point dog but lost by 40 points.
Over is 3-7 in last 10
This series hasn’t been the highest scoring. The over hit in just three of the last seven meetings.
Last year the total was 53 points and the two combined for 47.
They came close in 2021, totaling 53 points against a pregame total of 55.
The last time a over hit here was 2020. The two combined for 78 points, well over the total of 57.
