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NFL betting: Here's one way to bet WFT, Rams at a great number

·Betting analyst
·5 min read
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A teaser bet is one of the most popular NFL bets to make. If it’s not the most popular, well it should be. Putting your money where your mouth is in the NFL can be a scary and intimidating thing to do. Teasers eliminate some of that fear by adding extra cushion to the number.

What is a teaser bet?

Similar to a parlay, a teaser bet is when you combine a minimum of two plays, while adding or subtracting points to the side you choose. Essentially, you are adjusting the line in your favor whether it be against the spread or game total.

You can do a 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5 and even a 10-point teaser. The caveat: The more points you add, the bigger the juice you have to lay. This is why you see a six-point teaser used as the most popular option, as the odds are 1.1-to-1 compared to seven-point teaser with 1.3-to-1 odds.

Take the opening game of the NFL season, for example. If you like the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday but don’t think the Bucs can cover the 8-point spread, you can use Tampa on a six-point teaser and lower the spread from 8 to 2 as part of a two-leg play.

DENVER, COLORADO - AUGUST 28:  Obo Okoronkwo #45, J.R. Reed #36, and Christian Rozeboom #56 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrate after a Rozenboom interception in the fourth quarter during an NFL preseason game at Empower Field at Mile High on August 28, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
The Rams have a good defense and are playing at home. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Six-point teaser records

Looking at the last three seasons, here’s how all 32 teams performed on a six-point-teaser leg against the spread, followed by how they performed in the 2020 season.

Arizona Cardinals: 30-17, 10-6 last year

Atlanta Falcons: 31-17, 10-6

Baltimore Ravens: 39-9, 12-4

Buffalo Bills: 39-9, 15-1

Carolina Panthers: 29-16, 10-5

Chicago Bears: 38-10, 12-4

Cincinnati Bengals: 32-15, 11-5

Cleveland Browns: 33-14, 12-4

Dallas Cowboys: 34-14, 11-5

Denver Broncos: 34-14, 11-5

Detroit Lions: 34-13, 8-7

Green Bay Packers: 35-12, 13-3

Houston Texans: 36-12, 11-5

Indianapolis Colts: 36-12, 12-4

Jacksonville Jaguars: 26-21, 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs: 38-10, 11-5

Las Vegas Raiders: 29-18, 11-4

Los Angeles Chargers: 36-12, 14-2

Los Angeles Rams: 35-13, 11-5

Miami Dolphins: 34-14, 14-2

Minnesota Vikings: 33-14, 9-7

New England Patriots: 33-15, 10-6

New Orleans Saints: 38-8, 13-3

New York Giants: 32-15, 13-3

New York Jets: 29-19, 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles: 34-13, 12-4

Pittsburgh Steelers: 33-14, 12-4

San Francisco 49ers: 33-15, 8-8

Seattle Seahawks: 37-11, 13-3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 36-11, 12-4

Tennessee Titans: 32-13, 12-4

Washington Football Team: 32-14, 12-3

Basic teaser strategy

With 16 games in Week 1, how do you choose which teams to tease? Basic teaser strategy — based off Wong teaser principles — uses six points to move the line past the key numbers of three and seven. An example of this would be moving a favorite of -8 down to -2, which moves through the three and the seven, or adjusting an underdog from +2 to +8.

NFL games tend to fall on these two key numbers, so moving the points past these key numbers gives you a better chance for profit. In order to profit at -110 juice, two-team teasers must hit 52.4% to break even. But over time, any individual choice for a teaser leg must win at 72.3% because of the need to sweep. A 1-1 record with your teaser legs means 0-1 at the window. So like everything else, be selective. Tip: Don't tease game totals and don't tease college football. There's a lot more volatility with both of those options. Also, as appealing as it may seem: Never tease through the zero — it isn't the value you think it is.

Here’s the gist for picking your teaser:

  • Play 6-point teasers in games with a total of 49 points or less.

  • Tease home favorites of 7.5, 8, 8.5, or 9 points down.

  • Tease home underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 points up.

  • Tease road underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2, or 2.5 points up.

Week 1 NFL teaser betting options

I recommend sticking to two-team teasers. It’s more juice than if you were to make it a three-teamer or more, but just like a parlay, the more pieces you add, the bigger the chance of it not working out. Remember: It’s about cashing tickets.

Using a two-team, six-point teaser, in combination with the Wong principles, these are the teams that would make for the best options in Week 1 (odds via BetMGM).

Dolphins +8.5 at Patriots

Steelers at Bills -.5

Bears at Rams -1.5

Seahawks at Colts +8

Chargers at Washington +7

Broncos at Giants +8.5

Week 1 NFL teaser best bet

All options look good, don’t they? I’m a sucker for the Rams this year. Coach Sean McVay now has a capable quarterback with Matthew Stafford and an already stout defense facing … Andy Dalton. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now on a Washington team with a good secondary against a Chargers team that has a bottom 10 pass rush. Could we see FitzMagic? I’ll take the home teams with great defenses.

Six-point teaser: Rams -1.5 and Washington +7

Grabbing these on game-day is always a good option, too! Good luck.