How the Bears can give Justin Fields half a chance in 2022

There are times when rookie quarterbacks enter the NFL, and the entire deck is stacked against them. Some are able to overcome it, and some really aren’t. Bert Jones of the Baltimore Colts threw four touchdowns to 12 interceptions in his rookie season of 1973, became the only rookie quarterback ever to post a negative and went on to become one of the NFL’s most dynamic passers in the later part of the decade — Jones was John Elway before John Elway to a degree. Terry Bradshaw threw six touchdowns to 24 interceptions in his rookie season of 1970, and it took a number of years before he gained Chuck Noll’s trust and became the Hall of Famer he eventually became. And most of us remember Peyton Manning barfing up 28 picks in his rookie season of 1998 before things eventually turned around in a positive direction.

Rookie yips are pretty common. There are other times when quarterback and coaching staff just don’t work well together, and you get some really bad rookie results. Think of Jared Goff’s 2016 season. The first overall pick was saddled with Jeff Fisher’s coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Rob Boras, and Goff produced some of the worst DVOA (-74.8%) and DYAR (-881) numbers in Football Outsiders’ long history. Not that Goff rebounded to become a Hall of Fame-caliber player, but he did manage to dig himself out of quite a canyon when Sean McVay came calling in 2017.

Moving to the case of Justin Fields, who the Bears selected with the 11th overall pick in the 2021 draft (trading their 2022 first-round pick to move up to do it), we have another situation in which a rookie quarterback was monumentally ill-served by his coaching staff. Fields had to endure all kinds of garbage about his NFL readiness in the pre-draft process — things that are sadly common for most young Black quarterbacks — when his Ohio State tape told a very different story.

Once Fields was past all that, he had to deal with a far more tangible obstacle — the involvement of then-Bears head coach and offensive “play-designer” Matt Nagy. Nagy refused to let Fields play in the preseason with the starters, did all he could to promote Andy Dalton of Fields as the starter, and saddled the rookie with game designs that betrayed a stunning ignorance of Fields’ specific skills.

This would be one example — a bit of research I came across when I was writing this year’s “Best NFL quarterbacks for every type of throw” piece.

Fields showed that he was an adept passer outside the pocket, so Nagy didn’t let him do it. Fields was far better than Dalton when under pressure, and Nagy ignored it. Fields was far more dynamic when given the benefit of play-action, so, of course, he was barely ever given the benefit of it. Fields’ passer rating with pre-snap motion of 96.6 was far higher than his 63.7 passer rating without it, so guess what didn’t happen as often as it should have?

The only time Fields had any opportunity to do what he’s able to do in 2021 was when offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took the reins for a short time… and then, Nagy took them back.

The Bears have never fired a head coach in-season in a franchise history that goes back to 1920, and Nagy should have been the first.

Now that Nagy is mercifully gone, replaced by former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus (and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy), it’s time for Fields to be given even half a chance to succeed in the NFL after a season in which he was doomed before he ever walked into Halas Hall.

Not that Getsy needs our advice, but here are a few things he might want to consider.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference unless otherwise indicated).

Let Fields use his legs.

So… yeah. When passing from designed rollouts, Fields completed 14 of 19 passes for 182 yards, 122 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and that league-leading 138.5 passer rating. And outside the pocket in general, he completed 21 of 45 passes for 276 yards, 196 air yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 61.0. So maybe the designed stuff is the way to go for now, as opposed to the scramble drills.

This touchdown pass against the 49ers in Week 8 shows how well Fields can hit a target when he leaves the pocket. Apologies as always for the Soldier Field All-22, but on the end zone angle, you can see how comfortable Fields is with this as he throws to tight end Jesse James.

“You bring a play-style mentality philosophy to the table and then evaluate what the player does best,” Getsy said in February. “How I’ve been brought up in this business is, you build it around the quarterback first, and then you tailor everything else to match what everybody else does well. That process is just ingrained in my soul. We’re not going to just run this concept because I like it or it looks great on film. If the player can’t execute that, then we’re not going to have much success.”

Letting Fields run to throw should therefore be a big part of the Bears’ new offense.

More play-action for defined openings.

Last season, Fields completed 57 of 84 passes with play-action for 509 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.2. Without play-action, he completed 124 of 213 passes for 1,361 yards, five touchdowns, all 10 of his interceptions, and a passer rating of 65.5. Fields’ yards per attempt shot up from 6.4 without play-action to 8.9 with it, his completion rate went from 58.2% to 61.4%, and his big-time throw rate went from 4.3% to 12.7%. Per Pro Football Focus, a big-time throw is “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

So, with play-action, Fields was more efficient, more explosive, and overall, a much better quarterback. Which is why Nagy allowed him to use it on just 23.8% of his dropbacks — 26th in the league among quarterbacks who played at least 20% of their teams’ snaps. For context, Tua Tagovailoa led the league with a play-action rate of 42.8%. Fields’ 2022 rate should probably be even higher than that.

This is another boot-action throw — this time, a 27-yard pass to receiver Darnell Mooney on an intermediate crossing route. As Fields works to the right sideline, watch how his ability as a runner puts two Minnesota cornerbacks — Mackensie Alexander and Cameron Dantzler — into immediate conflict, leaving Mooney open. Anytime you can use your quarterback’s athleticism to give opposing defenders something extra to think about, you should probably go ahead and do that.

Use pre-snap motion for a clearer picture.

Fields was also better when given the benefit of pre-snap motion. No surprise there, as motion tells a quarterback what kind of coverage he’ll face to a point (motion to indicate), and it can create favorable matchups in space (motion to disrupt). With motion, Fields completed 55 of 78 passes for 609 yards, 334 air yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 96.6. Without it, he completed 104 of 192 passes for 1,261 yards, 789 air yards, five touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.7.

So, of course he had almost twice as many dropbacks without motion (192) as he did with it (100). Not that you want to build the entire plane out of the black box, so to speak, but Fields benefited so much from motion and Getsy should find ways to put it on the field more often. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 503 pre-snap motion dropbacks. Tom Brady was second with 402. Those guys have tended to be pretty effective.

On this 21-yard pass to tight end Cole Kmet against the Packers in Week 6, receiver Damiere Byrd motions from left to right, and no Green Bay defender follows him — instead, there are checks through the defense. That gives Fields a good indication he’s facing a zone defense, and the defensive formation shows that there will be a gap at the intermediate level unless somebody drops into that hole. Nobody does, and Fields has an easy opening to Kmet over the middle. Packers linebacker De’Vondre Campbell is checking running back Khalil Herbert out of the backfield, nobody picks Kmet up, and that’s an easy completion.

Again, anytime you have a clear window to making your young quarterback comfortable with what he’s seeing — allowing him to respond more immediately and instinctively — you should probably do more of it.

Let the plays develop.

There was some talk in the 2021 pre-draft process about Fields not being able to read defenses, which didn’t really make sense given the complexity of Ohio State’s passing game, and their strength of opponent down the stretch. With the Buckeyes, Fields often had to wait for longer-developing option routes to play out, which meant holding onto the ball until that happened. There’s a difference between being deliberate because you don’t get what you’re seeing, and because that’s what the play design demands.

Most quarterbacks are more efficient on plays in which they spend less time deciding where to throw the ball. The obvious reason? Less time with the ball means shorter throws, and a reduced degree of difficulty. Fields did not find that to be true in Nagy’s offense. Per PFF, when he had 2.5 seconds or less in the pocket, Fields completed 86 of 136 passes for 819 yards, one touchdown, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.9. With 2.56 seconds or more? Fields completed 73 of 132 passes for 1,051 yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 83.9.

To be that much more efficient on longer-developing plays is highly unusual, but it does play into Fields’ collegiate development. Aaron Rodgers, who Getsy worked with as the Packers’ quarterbacks coach in 2019, and the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator in 2020 and 2021, threw 22 touchdowns and no interceptions last season on plays in which he had the ball in pocket for 2.5 seconds or less. Fields is in a different place.

A few months back, my Touchdown Wire colleague Mark Schofield sent me two examples from Ohio State’s 2013 playbook that are still in effect in the Buckeyes’ passing game of today, and they’re quite revealing in their complexity and their reliance on the quarterback holding the ball through more advanced route progressions.

Let’s walk through these two examples.

On the “Follow/Drive” concept, it’s an empty look with the trips right receivers running deeper routes unless coverage indicates otherwise. The free safety is the key defender. The inside slot receiver (F3) could run one of three different routes (a protection crosser if the safety is aggressive), as could the outside slot receiver (F2). The outside receiver to the right side might run with free access to the boundary if there’s no aggressive coverage.

On the left side, which is where Fields starts his reads on “8 Duo H-51 Bench Follow, Stitch,” the slot receiver (B2) is running a drag route for the quick conversion if necessary, but he may have to throttle that down depending on coverage. And the outside receiver to that side will run a follow concept that varies depending on man or zone coverage.

On “8 Duo RT G-50 Field Option,” we have another empty package with trips right. Now, the inside slot man to the right takes one of three angular routes based on coverage at the eight-yard point. The backside slot receiver has a similar construct at 10 yards. And the outside receiver to the back side is running either a boundary vertical route, or kicking it inside at 10 yards based on coverage.

It’s a bit more complicated than a bunch of simple slants on two-level RPOs. Getsy will want to make Fields more comfortable with quick game, but there’s also a lot of potential here on longer-developing plays.

Fields needs schematic help to reach his potential.

Most young quarterbacks need some window dressing from their coaches to allow them to maximize their athletic potential. If that’s not happening, and the quarterback is still successful, there are usually some fairly epic matchup reasons. In 2021, Joe Burrow was the NFL’s best quarterback on plays without play-action and without pre-snap motion. He was that in his second NFL season. The Bengals ran a lot of quick game to mitigate their offensive line issues, Burrow seemed to be more comfortable having everything in front of him for the duration of the play, and he also had Ja’Marr Chase demolishing opposing cornerbacks with iso matchups as the island receiver in Cincinnati’s frequent 3×1 sets.

Fields does not have those matchup advantages — at least, not yet. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet were his best targets in 2021, but neither player could be easily defined as a WR1 or TE1 in a larger NFL sense. Allen Robinson is now with the Rams. The Bears signed former Packers receiver Equanimeous St. Brown in free agency, and selected Tennessee receiver Velus Jones with the 71st overall pick in the third round. Fields has a decent assemblage of targets, but nobody that pops off the screen, or makes defenders nervous, in a Ja’Marr Chase sense.

So, with Option A (have alpha receivers) out the window in the near term, Option B (create alpha receiver situations through scheme) is the only option. Option C is to re-create last year’s disaster with Nagy, and we’re going to assume that Getsy is smarter than that.

“When you look at innovation for play-callers and guys that have been part of systems, what you want to do is look at the tape,” Eberflus said of Getsy at the scouting combine in March. “So, what family did they come from and what style does that particular group play and show and the innovations they have with their plays, and that group [in Green Bay] has done that throughout, and that’s what brought me the interest in Luke throughout the whole process.

“I’ve been in the league almost 15 years now and those guys, you look at and say, ‘they’re hard to defend, they’re very innovative in the first 15 [plays], they’re great coming out of halftime, they’re really good in situations,’ and that’s what attracted me to Luke.”

One assumes it also has attracted Fields to Luke. One also assumes that  Fields’ second NFL season can’t possibly be any worse than his first. The redemption starts now.

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