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Back on solid footing, Heat still face slippery slope with playoff seeding

ira winderman, south florida sun-sentinel
·5 min read

MIAMI — The Miami Heat, no doubt, are in a better place with these six victories in their last eight games than there were, say, on Jan. 29, when a seven-game losing streak dropped them to 24-23.

And yet, at 30-25, they actually are in an all-to-familiar and all-too-uncomfortable place, with the same record as they stood through 55 games last season, and in the same spot they finished last season, seventh place in the Eastern Conference.

Yes, all of that ultimately added up last season to a No. 8 playoff seed and an eventual berth in the NBA Finals. So if lightning in a bottle remains the preferred beverage, then, yes, there is a chance.

But, no, as coach Erik Spoelstra has already said, seventh place is not where the Heat want to be.

The question now is whether there is upward mobility, with this latest run a potential takeoff point for when the schedule resumes Friday against the New Orleans Pelicans at the start of a four-game trip.

With 27 games to go, based on the current standings it would appear in the East that the No. 1 Boston Celtics (43-12), No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers (36-17) and No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks (35-20) are out of reach (although the start under replacement coach Doc Rivers in Milwaukee hardly has been overwhelming).

So if there is a chance for homecourt in the first round, No. 4 would be the target.

And if there is hope of avoiding last season’s play-in path, it would require at least No. 6 or better.

As for what the modeling says, a rising, with all due respect to Pat Riley’s Bruce Springsteen anthem, could prove challenging.

According to Basketball Reference’s analytics, the Heat, at the moment, have just a 30.9% chance of finishing at No. 6 or better (and therefore avoiding the perilous play-in round).

That modeling has the Heat with no chance for the No. 1 seed at 0.1% for a No. 2 finish, 1.2% for No. 3, 3.9% for No. 4, 8.8% for No. 5 and 16.9% for No. 6.

In fact, even while currently at No. 7 in the East (by tiebreaker) the forecast has the Heat at 23.4% for that spot, with the most likely finish listed at 42% for No. 8 (and therefore opening the play-in round on the road).

The head-to-head tiebreaker against the No. 4 New York Knicks already has been lost, with the tiebreaker already won against the No. 8 Orlando Magic.

Another factor that could enter the equation is winning the Southeast Division, with a division title carrying added weight in a multiple-team tie or a tied head-to-head series. The Heat and Magic currently stand tied for that division lead.

So no, not easy, as if anything has been these past two seasons, with 13 home games and 14 road games remaining.

With the NBA at rest, a look at where it stands for the Heat:

No. 4 New York Knicks

W-L: 33-22, 3 games up on Heat.

Home/away: 14 home, 13 road.

Remaining strength of schedule: 14th hardest in NBA, sixth hardest in East (per Tankathon).

Basketball Reference Top 6 playoff probability: 92.5%.

Season series vs. Heat (first tiebreaker): Knicks lead 2-0, one Heat home game remaining.

Swing factor: The level that Julius Randle returns from his shoulder injury and continued integration off New York’s new pieces.

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No. 5 Philadelphia 76ers

W-L: 32-22, 2 1/2 games up on Heat.

Home/away: 13 home, 15 road.

Remaining strength of schedule: 9th hardest in NBA, third hardest in East.

Basketball Reference Top 6 playoff probability: 85.6%.

Season series vs. Heat: Heat lead 2-0, two games remaining.

Swing factor: When/if Joel Embiid returns from his knee injury and at what level.

No. 6 Indiana Pacers

W-L: 31-25, 1/2 game up on Heat.

Home/away: 13 home,13 road.

Remaining strength of schedule: 19th hardest in NBA, 10th hardest in East.

Basketball Reference Top 6 playoff probability: 34.9.%.

Season series vs. Heat: Tied 1-1, one Heat road game remaining.

Swing factor: Is there enough defense in the house to withstand the pressure of a playoff race?

No. 7 Miami Heat

W-L: 30-25.

Home/away: 13 home, 14 road.

Remaining strength of schedule: 19th hardest in NBA, 13th hardest in East.

Basketball Reference Top 6 playoff probability: 30.9.%.

Swing factor: Whether Terry Rozier’s acclimation is set back by the time missed with his knee strain.

No. 8 Orlando Magic

W-L: 30-25, tied with Heat (but behind Heat by tiebreaker).

Home/away: 15 home, 12 road.

Remaining strength of schedule: 30th hardest (easiest) in NBA, 15th hardest (easiest) in East.

Basketball Reference Top 6 playoff probability: 60.8.%.

Season series vs. Heat: Heat won 3-1.

Swing factor: Can the youth of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner stand up to the trials of a playoff race?

Further back

The No. 9 Chicago Bulls trail Heat by four games; the No. 10 Atlanta Hawks trail Heat by six games.

Playoff format

— Seeds Nos. 1-6 in each conference advance directly to best-of-seven opening round.

— Seeds Nos. 7-10 advance to play-in round.

— Winner of No. 7-No. 8 game becomes No. 7 seed in best-of-seven opening round.

— Loser of No. 7-No. 8 game hosts winner of No. 9-No. 10 game for No. 8 seed in best-of-seven opening round.