Arace: Columbus Crew are legit MLS contenders at home. Now, they hit road for stretch run
For most of the MLS season, the top storyline has been FC Cincinnati’s blistering run toward the Supporters’ Shield.
Since mid-July, when Lionel Messi (and Sergio Busquets, Jordi Alba, et al) arrived in Miami, the major talking point has revolved around whether last-place Inter can leap six teams and pull themselves over the playoff bar by season’s end.
The Crew have been operating in the background – not the deep background, mind you, but somewhere in the sfumato. Their biggest headline during the summer transfer window had to do with the sale of star Lucas Zelaryan to a team in Saudi Arabia. Less noted were their additions, including right wing back Julian Gressel, a gifted server of the ball, and forward Diego Rossi, a talented designated player.
The indoctrination of center backs Yevhen Cheberko and Rudy Camacho along with Gressel and Rossi has gone about as well as coach Wilfried Nancy could have hoped. The Crew are 9-1-4 (all competitions) in their past 15 games, including 9-1-1 at home. They have outscored their opponents 30-18 in this span.
The Crew recently beat St. Louis City, the top team in the West. As it was a Leagues Cup game, marred by a weather delay, it’s tough to put a ton of weight on it. But the Crew’s 3-0 disembowelment of rival Cincinnati the weekend before last was clearly a statement (Aidan Morris said as much).
Saturday night, the Crew (12-7-6) posted another shutout with a 2-0 victory over Toronto at Lower.com Field. This is a hot team, gathering momentum for a stretch run. It is becoming de rigueur for MLS pundits, even those paid directly by Don Garber, to talk about Columbus as a legitimate threat to win the MLS Cup.
The schedule will have something to say about this.
Carving out a month for Leagues Cup has compressed the season into some wicked interludes. Consider:
By the end of Sunday, Miami will have played 11 games in 46 days, including five games in the past 16 days of that stretch. Messi has already delivered a Leagues Cup trophy and gotten the Herons through to the final of the U.S. Open Cup. But will Messi (age 36), Busquets (35) and Alba (34) have the legs to drag Miami from 14th place to ninth?
Miami (6-14-3) has 11 games remaining, more than any other team in the league, plus the U.S. Open Cup final (Sept. 27). Miami coach Tata Martino said Saturday that Messi will miss three games due to international duty.
The Crew's remaining schedule is not without its wickedness, either. The Toronto game was the beginning of a run of three games in eight days; the Crew will have three such runs from now until Decision Day, Oct. 21. Two international windows − Sept 4-12 and Oct. 9-17 − are betwixt.
Six of the Crew’s last nine games, including the next three in a row, are on the road. Keep in mind that, statistically speaking, MLS is among the toughest road leagues in the world. The Crew are 2-6-3 away from the friendly confines of the LDC.
Wednesday night, the Crew will play their first road game since July 16. Kickoff in Houson is 8:30 p.m. EDT.
“To be honest with you, I would have preferred to play in another place instead of Houston because Houston, this is really hot, as you know,” Nancy said. “We're going to … analyze the opposition and see what type of profile I'm going to put against Houston. Yes, this is good to have many games because, obviously, they cannot play every game, and I like to make rotation. I didn't do it in the past, but I have the feeling that I can do it now. I expect that everyone is going to be able to help us to do a good run during the next two games.”
Data analyst and Crew fan Eliot McKinley, a contributor to American Soccer Analysis, ran some numbers on strength of schedule. In terms of strength of opponents (based on average points), the Crew have the seventh-toughest schedule down the stretch. In terms of strength of opponents (based on average xPoints), the Crew have the 27th toughest schedule. In terms of days’ rest, the Crew’s average of 6.22 is in the range of what most teams are facing.
Not easy and not brutal, relatively speaking.
In sum:
Every one of the Crew’s eight remaining opponents (they play Montreal twice) is in playoff position. The Crew are in fifth place in the East, a fraction of a point (on points percentage) behind Orlando. The Crew’s goal is to crack the top four, which brings two home playoff games. They have road games remaining against their direct competition – at No. 4 Orlando Sept 16 and at No. 3 New England Oct. 4.
The Crew look like legitimate contenders, but they will have to pass more than an eye test to prove it.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Can Miami, Lionel Messi, get into MLS playoffs? Can Crew win on road?
