5 reasons Penn State could lose to West Virginia
Let’s be real for a second. Penn State is a solid favorite at home against West Virginia to open up the season in Week 1, but you have to play the games for a reason. College football is fueled by upsets. And there is a chance Penn State could lose to West Virginia. It’s not likely, but it could happen.
Penn State is a massive favorite this weekend. The Nittany Lions are a nearly three-touchdown favorite according to the betting line and ESPN’s matchup predictor analytics give Penn State an 88.7% chance of starting the season 1-0. This is to be expected when Penn State is expected to firmly be on the College Football Playoff radar into November and West Virginia was picked to finish last in the newly expanded Big 12.
Everything you can do to look at this game suggests Penn State should feel comfortable starting the season on the winning foot against West Virginia. So how could the Mountaineers pull this one off? For obvious reasons, we’ll avoid the injury discussion because injuries can happen to anybody at any time. So let’s take a look at another five possible ways Penn State could potentially stub a toe against West Virginia in Week 1.
Penn State's defense can't figure out Garrett Greene
The biggest key for West Virginia is to find a way for Garrett Greene to mix things up enough on offense that Penn State’s defense is left scratching their heads trying to figure him out. Think Michael Penix Jr. for Indiana in the 2020 opener. Greene isn’t exactly on that kind of level but his dual-threat ability will be put to the test by a solid Penn State defense not afraid to cut loose but also is aware enough to stay patient.
Greene rushed for 276 yards and five touchdowns last season. If Greene gets enough big plays, West Virginia could sustain some drives.
Penn State's technically unproven QB game struggles in the spotlight
This will mark the beginning of the Drew Allar era for Penn State, whether head coach James Frnaklin wants to publicly confirm that or not. Allar brings plenty of hype with him out of his high school career and with the glimpses of backup action we all witnessed a season ago behind Sean Clifford. But this is his offense now, and he’ll be making his starting debut under the bright lights in front of a modified whiteout on national television.
There are no reasons to suggest he is not ready for that kind of spotlight. But what if he isn’t? What if he feels like he has to force something that just isn’t there early on or if he tries throwing for a 25-yard gain when a short pass to pick up seven yards is all that is needed to move the chains?
What if Drew Allar doesn’t have a great game, throws a couple of interceptions, and one of them is returned for a touchdown?
Hey, it COULD happen! And if it does, then West Virginia has to capitalize.
New clock rules means fewer plays
The NCAA has new clock rules in play this season designed to reduce the amount of time a football game is actually played, thus reducing the number of plays a team will run this season. And it is something that could work against Penn State.
The new clock rule keeps the game clock running even after a first down for the entire game with the exception of the last two minutes of each half, when the traditional stopping of the clock to move the chians will remain. If West Virginia is able to play some ball control, that could change the way the time of possession works out, meaning Penn State may need a few more big plays than originally thought.
Of course, Penn State may not need much time to do some damage, but the Mountaineers may be smart to try and play a clock game and milk as much time as possible to keep the Penn State offense off the field.
West Virginia's offensive line isn't bad
Penn State’s defensive line is tough to beat, but West Virginia’s offensive line could be a good battle to start the season. The Mountaineers have a preseason All-Big 12 first-team lineman in Zach Frazier, a 310-pound junior, helping provide protection for Greene in the middle of the line. Wyatt Milum received second-team preseason All-Big 12 from Athlon Sports too, so it’s not exactly a crumbling wall West Virginia has fortified on the line of scrimmage.
This may be the stiffest challenge West Virginia’s offensive line faces all season, but they just have to hold up enough to let Greene make some plays and allow CJ Donaldson Jr. to find some room to run.
The nothing-to-lose mentality
There can be something dangerous about a team knowing it has nothing to lose while the pressure is entirely on the other team. West Virginia is that team coming into a raucous Beaver Stadium with absolutely nothing to lose.
The Mountaineers have already spoken about how they are embracing the role of underdog this week, and perhaps this season, and you should expect them to come out feeling like they can set the world on fire, just like West Virginia fans do to their couches after big games. So if they want the fans to burn some couches in Morgantown this weekend, then they’ll come out with a little extra energy and enthusiasm on the road, make a few big plays early and maybe even get an early score to quiet the Beaver Stadium crowd.
If West Virginia is able to get two scores in the first quarter and the defense holds Penn State off just enough, the nerves around the stadium will start to rise in the stands and maybe on the Penn State sideline, leading James Franklin to take an ill-advised chance in a bad spot only for it to backfire.
Hey, it COULD happen is all I’m saying.
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