4 reasons why the Browns will beat the Eagles in Week 11

The 6-3 Cleveland Browns host the 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles in a Week 11 game that’s an important opportunity for the Browns to stick in the crowded AFC playoff race.

Cleveland comes in off a blustery 10-7 win over the Houston Texans in a subtropical depression at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Eagles lost to the New York Giants, 27-17, blowing a golden opportunity to run away and hide with the lowly NFC East title.

The Browns are favored to win at home. And they should feel good about their chances to come up victorious, even with the unfortunate late-breaking news that Myles Garrett will miss the game due to COVID-19.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt

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Browns fans know the potency of the Cleveland rushing attack. The offensive line is great with Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio paving the way in the run game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt just became the first Browns to top 100 yards on the ground in the same game since 1966. In short, the Cleveland run game is deep, it's weatherproof and it's peaking with the relative health of the recent bye week. The Eagles run defense isn't terrible. They're middle-of-the-pack at allowing 4.4 yards per carry, and they're 26th in yards per game at 133. But the Eagles are trending in the wrong direction. In the last three games, the Eagles are surrendering 148 yards per game on the ground and 4.8 yards per carry. The Browns average a league-best 5.6 yards per carry when both Chubb and Hunt play.

The Eagles anemic passing offense

(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

The easiest way to beat the Cleveland Browns is to attack the defense down the field. It isn't a high-percentage plan of attack, but between the propensity for blown coverages by the safeties and LBs as well as pass interference calls, it can jumpstart an opposing offense. According to Sharp Football, the Eagles are 31st in explosive plays via the passing game. Only the Bengals are worse. The Eagles average a pedestrian 9.4 yards per completion, the fifth-worst in the league and over a yard below the league average of 10.8, which coincidentally is what the Browns average. The Eagles offense is not built to attack bad safeties in coverage. That's a blessing for the Browns, mitigating the potential negative impact of Andrew Sendejo.

Kicking woes

(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

The Browns might be on their second placekicker of the year, and COVID-19 could force them to a third. Even if it's Matt McCrane kicking for the Browns, they still might have an advantage over the Eagles. Philadelphia kicker Jake Elliott is not having a good season. He's missed four of his 13 field goal attempts, and that includes Elliott missing more attempts than he's made since Week 4. Breaking out of that slump in the predicted weather — heavy rain, wind between 10 and 20 MPH — doesn't seem likely. If the game comes down to a field goal, Eagles fans will have even less faith in Elliott than Browns fans will in Cody Parkey, a former Eagle himself. Parkey is 11-of-12 for the Browns this season and gets to practice in the suboptimal field conditions.

Myles Garrett vs. Carson Wentz - A matchup we will miss

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)This one was initially the leading point here. Alas, Garrett will not play. Oh what could have been... Sometimes it's best to not overthink matchups and just go with the straight math and probability. And this calculation surely favors the Browns: 1. No player has more sacks than Myles Garrett and his 9.5 in nine games. Garrett also leads the NFL in strip-sacks with four. 2. No quarterback has been sacked more than Carson Wentz and his 35 times (losing 237 yards) in nine games. No player has fumbled more than Wentz, with nine. Advantage Cleveland.

Turnovers

(AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

Missing Garrett hurts here, but the stronger trends here still prevail. Take a gander at the turnover margins table for the two teams.

No quarterback is more flippant with the ball than Wentz. He has thrown 12 interceptions, a league-high. He has nine fumbles, also a league-high. That is not a fluke, either; no player has fumbled more in the last five years than Wentz, who has coughed it up 57 times in 65 games. The Browns defense was very good at taking the ball away early in the season. They've cooled of late, with no takeaways in the last two games. Something has to give. Even without Garrett, the Browns opportunism is poised to rise up again. Denzel Ward, Sheldon Richardson, Ronnie Harrison and friends can still capitalize on the Eagles' poor ball security.